玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/1128.091.7620.59273.8722.8183.47N/A-
2024/1027.61-0.5835.5245.7823.0782.62N/A-
2024/927.771.9425.7218.1721.6680.560.41-
2024/827.246.6123.43190.421.0976.070.43-
2024/725.559.7324.19163.1720.7174.390.44-
2024/623.28-8.919.05137.6220.0974.270.4-
2024/525.560.535.66114.3320.374.50.4-
2024/425.438.1434.8688.7716.5163.140.47-
2024/323.5165.664.1263.3510.4763.350.46-
2024/214.19-44.63-22.9139.8314.661.560.47-
2024/125.6417.9756.8725.6456.8770.660.41(1)112年1月有農曆年假期,並無完整銷貨天數(2)112年1月全球伺服器與NB有庫存過高問題,113年全球庫存問題已解決
2023/1221.73-6.71-3.3244.72-9.7565.40.41-
2023/1123.2914.34-3.53222.99-10.3465.760.4-
2023/1020.37-7.78-14.39199.69-11.0764.530.41-
2023/922.090.1-17.04179.32-10.6864.730.4-
2023/822.077.26-6.97157.23-9.762.20.42-
2023/720.575.2-8.02135.16-10.1458.970.44-
2023/619.563.79-12.0114.59-10.557.250.47-
2023/518.84-0.08-16.8995.03-10.1960.280.44-
2023/418.86-16.5-13.1276.19-8.3659.850.45-
2023/322.5822.65-6.0857.34-6.6857.340.53-
2023/218.4112.6632.7534.75-7.0757.230.53-
2023/116.34-27.28-30.5416.34-30.5462.970.48-
2022/1222.48-6.92-0.15271.1926.8170.420.51-
2022/1124.151.4617.57248.7129.9974.580.48-
2022/1023.8-10.6437.34224.5631.4874.150.48-
2022/926.6312.2628.62200.7730.8272.720.49-
2022/823.726.0422.6174.1431.1668.310.52-
2022/722.370.6427.71150.4132.6267.260.53-
2022/622.22-1.9638.15128.0533.5266.60.66-
2022/522.674.4451.18105.8232.5968.420.64因為去年受到缺料及疫情升溫影響,去年營收不如預期而今年有價格較高的新機種切入,所以營收上升
2022/421.71-9.7323.8583.1528.2959.620.74-
2022/324.0573.3742.8761.4529.9361.450.74-
2022/213.87-41.068.2237.422.7959.910.76-
2022/123.534.5333.3723.5333.3766.580.69-
2021/1222.519.625.61213.8423.7460.380.68-
2021/1120.5418.5324.89191.3323.5258.570.7-
2021/1017.33-16.3124.74170.7923.3657.380.71-
2021/920.77.0125.0153.4623.2157.570.67-
2021/819.3510.4620.54132.7622.9352.950.73-
2021/717.518.8832.13113.4123.3548.60.79-
2021/616.097.287.8395.8921.8748.60.84-
2021/514.99-14.43-1.3979.8125.1549.350.83-
2021/417.524.122.0664.8133.4747.170.87-
2021/316.8331.3326.1247.2950.6447.290.72108年度受到COVID-19影響, 產能利用率偏低, 營收不如預期
2021/212.81-27.3663.8230.4668.7748.380.71去年同期係因為COVID-19影響產能明顯不足
2021/117.64-1.5472.5617.6472.5652.010.66去年過年休假,在一月中下旬,致工作天數較少
2020/1217.928.9725.19172.8114.4748.250.53-
2020/1116.4418.3814.27154.8913.3546.90.55-
2020/1013.89-16.1318.34138.4413.2446.50.55-
2020/916.563.1923.68124.5512.745.870.54-
2020/816.0521.088.72107.9911.1944.220.56-
2020/713.26-11.14-2.691.9411.6343.380.57-
2020/614.92-1.8931.1478.6814.4547.290.48-
2020/515.21-11.4323.4163.7711.1445.720.5-
2020/417.1728.6737.3248.567.7838.340.59-
2020/313.3470.5818.1431.39-3.5631.390.62-
2020/27.82-23.4911.0318.05-15.0932.360.6-
2020/110.22-28.57-28.0510.22-28.050.0N/A-
2019/1214.31-0.5218.9150.9513.50.0N/A-
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/125.642023/116.342022/123.532021/117.642020/110.22
2024/214.192023/218.412022/213.872021/212.812020/27.82
2024/323.512023/322.582022/324.052021/316.832020/313.34
2024/425.432023/418.862022/421.712021/417.522020/417.17
2024/525.562023/518.842022/522.672021/514.992020/515.21
2024/623.282023/619.562022/622.222021/616.092020/614.92
2024/725.552023/720.572022/722.372021/717.512020/713.26
2024/827.242023/822.072022/823.722021/819.352020/816.05
2024/927.772023/922.092022/926.632021/920.72020/916.56
2024/1027.612023/1020.372022/1023.82021/1017.332020/1013.89
2024/1128.092023/1123.292022/1124.152021/1120.542020/1116.44
N/AN/A2023/1221.732022/1222.482021/1222.512020/1217.92
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 1.69%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
24Q3 (20)0.19-42.42-71.21
24Q2 (19)0.33-5.71-47.62
24Q1 (18)0.3512.9-37.5
23Q4 (17)0.31-53.03-42.59
23Q3 (16)0.664.76-2.94
23Q2 (15)0.6312.5-39.42
23Q1 (14)0.563.7-60.0
22Q4 (13)0.54-20.59-44.33
22Q3 (12)0.68-34.62-71.9
22Q2 (11)1.04-25.71-42.22
22Q1 (10)1.444.3332.08
21Q4 (9)0.97-59.925.43
21Q3 (8)2.4234.44157.45
21Q2 (7)1.869.81205.08
21Q1 (6)1.0615.22430.0
20Q4 (5)0.92-2.13360.0
20Q3 (4)0.9459.320.0
20Q2 (3)0.59195.00.0
20Q1 (2)0.20.00.0
19Q4 (1)0.20.00.0

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