玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/1019.84-11.37-12.91204.53-18.9360.95N/A-
2024/922.3819.54-6.19184.69-19.5264.010.87-
2024/818.73-18.24-28.55162.3-21.0764.660.86-
2024/722.9-0.5416.46143.58-19.9866.760.83-
2024/623.0310.58-5.69120.67-24.4765.090.83-
2024/520.83-1.9-6.2997.64-27.8562.680.87-
2024/421.232.94-13.6676.82-32.0962.020.87-
2024/320.622.28-30.2855.59-37.2155.591.0-
2024/220.1636.23-30.9634.96-40.6960.320.92-
2024/114.8-41.63-50.2414.8-50.2466.310.84本月營收較去年同期減少,主係本期美國及歐洲地區出貨減少。
2023/1225.36-3.03-10.88303.8-0.5574.290.49-
2023/1126.1514.79-14.74278.440.5172.790.5-
2023/1022.78-4.53-16.14252.292.4172.850.5-
2023/923.86-8.95-20.49229.514.769.740.81-
2023/826.2133.27-12.38205.658.770.30.8-
2023/719.67-19.46-26.29179.4412.6766.310.85-
2023/624.429.86-14.32159.7720.5171.240.85-
2023/522.23-9.67.76135.3530.0576.40.79-
2023/424.59-16.8786.9113.1335.5683.380.72本月營收較去年同期增加,主係本期美國及歐洲地區出貨增加。
2023/329.581.2814.1988.5325.9588.530.83-
2023/229.21-1.8143.2458.9532.8187.410.84-
2023/129.754.5423.9429.7523.9488.870.83-
2022/1228.45-7.2314.59305.4818.9486.290.93-
2022/1130.6712.956.95277.0319.4187.850.91本月營收較去年同期增加,主係本期美國及歐洲地區出貨增加。
2022/1027.17-9.4838.67246.3515.9687.090.92-
2022/930.010.3332.36219.1913.6586.610.88-
2022/829.9112.137.48189.1711.1585.10.89-
2022/726.68-6.3941.83159.267.2975.811.0-
2022/628.538.224.71132.582.2862.291.2-
2022/520.6356.763.37104.07-2.5159.691.25-
2022/413.16-49.2-27.0583.45-3.8659.451.25-
2022/325.927.041.3770.292.2170.290.95-
2022/220.39-15.04-2.7744.392.7169.220.97-
2022/124.0-3.347.8824.07.8868.370.98-
2021/1224.8327.05-26.96256.8215.4163.960.97-
2021/1119.54-0.24-2.94231.9923.0561.811.01-
2021/1019.59-13.612.72212.4526.1664.020.97-
2021/922.674.212.99192.8627.763.250.9-
2021/821.7615.654.21170.1831.9263.430.9-
2021/718.81-17.688.64148.4337.2761.620.92-
2021/622.8614.5519.12129.6142.7360.840.81-
2021/519.9510.6119.63106.7649.0663.540.77-
2021/418.04-29.4136.9786.8157.9964.560.76營收較去年同期增加,主係本期國內及歐美地區出貨增加。
2021/325.5521.8553.9868.7764.6268.770.66營收較去年同期增加,主係本期歐美地區出貨增加。
2021/220.97-5.7398.3743.2271.6377.210.59因疫情趨緩,歐美及國內地區出貨增加。
2021/122.25-34.5652.2822.2552.2876.380.6本月營收較去年同期增加,主係本期國內及北美地區出貨增加。
2020/1234.068.8478.59222.53-7.4171.510.69本月營收較去年同期增加,主係本期國內及北美地區出貨增加。
2020/1120.1415.8516.57188.53-14.8159.530.82-
2020/1017.38-21.0523.12168.39-17.4660.270.81-
2020/922.025.4417.87151.01-20.4860.210.79-
2020/820.8820.567.65129.0-24.6657.380.83-
2020/717.32-9.7416.92108.12-28.7953.180.89-
2020/619.1915.04-9.3690.8-33.7349.030.71-
2020/516.6826.65-14.0871.62-38.1946.440.75-
2020/413.17-20.64-23.0954.94-43.0440.330.87-
2020/316.5956.98-51.3141.77-47.3441.770.8本月營收較去年同期減少,主係本月寬頻接取及光纖設備產品出貨減少。
2020/210.57-27.63-50.1125.18-44.3644.210.75本月營收較去年同期減少,主係本月寬頻接取及光纖設備產品出貨減少。
2020/114.61-23.26-39.2914.61-39.2950.920.65-
2019/1219.0410.21-32.11240.348.880.0N/A-
2019/1117.2722.36-21.7221.3114.850.0N/A-
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/114.82023/129.752022/124.02021/122.252020/114.61
2024/220.162023/229.212022/220.392021/220.972020/210.57
2024/320.622023/329.582022/325.92021/325.552020/316.59
2024/421.232023/424.592022/413.162021/418.042020/413.17
2024/520.832023/522.232022/520.632021/519.952020/516.68
2024/623.032023/624.422022/628.52021/622.862020/619.19
2024/722.92023/719.672022/726.682021/718.812020/717.32
2024/818.732023/826.212022/829.912021/821.762020/820.88
2024/922.382023/923.862022/930.012021/922.672020/922.02
2024/1019.842023/1022.782022/1027.172021/1019.592020/1017.38
N/AN/A2023/1126.152022/1130.672021/1119.542020/1120.14
N/AN/A2023/1225.362022/1228.452021/1224.832020/1234.0
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 17.48%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
24Q3 (20)7.18-14.52206.84
24Q2 (19)8.4226.85214.61
24Q1 (18)2.57-6.5511.26
23Q4 (17)2.7517.52-66.75
23Q3 (16)2.34-12.36271.43
23Q2 (15)2.6715.58317.19
23Q1 (14)2.31-72.078.45
22Q4 (13)8.271212.7372.57
22Q3 (12)0.63-1.56-32.98
22Q2 (11)0.64-69.956.67
22Q1 (10)2.1321.71176.62
21Q4 (9)1.7586.17133.33
21Q3 (8)0.9456.6710.59
21Q2 (7)0.6-22.08-3.23
21Q1 (6)0.772.67-24.51
20Q4 (5)0.75-11.76-16.67
20Q3 (4)0.8537.10.0
20Q2 (3)0.62-39.220.0
20Q1 (2)1.0213.330.0
19Q4 (1)0.90.00.0

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