玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/102.373.35-0.3524.03-2.627.8N/A-
2024/92.3-26.58-5.3921.66-2.868.221.29-
2024/83.1311.8312.7819.36-2.559.211.15-
2024/72.8-14.79-0.3216.23-5.048.861.19-
2024/63.2818.0835.5313.44-5.967.831.38-
2024/52.7857.233.2210.15-14.446.611.64-
2024/41.77-14.11-34.017.37-19.635.42.0-
2024/32.0630.78-12.635.6-13.695.61.93-
2024/21.57-20.05-20.223.54-14.296.051.79-
2024/11.97-21.36-8.891.97-8.896.661.62-
2023/122.514.292.6229.38-10.277.081.46-
2023/112.19-8.04-38.326.87-11.317.01.47-
2023/102.38-1.86-32.7124.68-7.737.591.36-
2023/92.43-12.48-14.3922.3-3.928.011.3-
2023/82.77-1.16-19.4419.87-2.468.01.3-
2023/72.8115.85-3.6917.10.987.921.32-
2023/62.42-10.06-13.2214.291.967.81.43-
2023/52.690.51-22.1211.875.737.731.44-
2023/42.6813.7157.959.1718.167.011.59去年同期因大陸昆山廠疫情停工,致本期營收變動率增加
2023/32.3619.4324.156.497.026.491.8-
2023/21.97-8.69-2.544.14-0.776.581.78-
2023/12.16-11.420.892.160.898.151.43-
2022/122.44-31.283.4832.7437.529.531.18-
2022/113.550.28111.6230.341.269.931.13去年同期越南廠因疫期停工後,復工緩慢,以致營收減少,致使今年同期營收變動率大幅增加
2022/103.5424.86165.7126.7535.299.821.15去年同期越南廠因疫期停工,以致營收減少,致使今年同期營收變動率大幅增加
2022/92.84-17.6483.6123.2125.869.21.25去年同期越南廠因疫情停工,以致營收減少,致使今年同期營收變動率大幅增加
2022/83.4418.16146.8220.3720.589.151.26去年同期越南廠因疫期停工,以致營收減少,致使今年同期營收變動率大幅增加
2022/72.914.3845.7416.939.229.171.25-
2022/62.79-19.2926.3314.013.817.951.55-
2022/53.46103.8862.6411.22-0.597.051.75因疫期影響交貨進度,而集中本月出貨,致本月出貨量增加
2022/41.7-10.62-25.617.76-15.275.622.2-
2022/31.9-6.25-36.836.07-11.856.071.96-
2022/22.03-5.4654.464.177.526.531.82去年因疫情影響,出貨延遲,本月加速出貨,以致營收增加
2022/12.14-9.15-16.472.14-16.476.181.92-
2021/122.3640.51-14.8623.81-9.75.371.98-
2021/111.6825.91-23.2121.45-9.14.562.34-
2021/101.33-13.71-34.4419.77-7.654.272.49-
2021/91.5410.7-43.6218.44-4.844.942.07-
2021/81.4-30.22-32.916.91.535.611.83-
2021/72.0-9.51-30.8315.56.456.341.62-
2021/62.213.9-18.9613.515.696.621.57-
2021/52.13-6.74-8.111.2926.267.411.4-
2021/42.28-24.123.899.1638.276.61.57-
2021/33.01129.2465.296.8843.86.881.41因去年疫情影響,銷售額較少,以致比較基期較低所致
2021/21.31-48.87-2.373.8830.636.651.46-
2021/12.56-7.457.932.5657.937.521.29因去年同期適逢農曆春節假期多,以致去年基期較低,故營收成長率本期增加57.93%
2020/122.7726.7315.726.37-9.146.991.32-
2020/112.197.49-15.6223.6-11.376.961.32-
2020/102.03-25.8-32.3921.41-10.916.851.35-
2020/92.7431.777.8719.38-7.847.711.15-
2020/82.08-28.07-12.3716.64-10.07.71.16-
2020/72.896.017.5914.56-9.657.931.12-
2020/62.7317.82-6.2711.67-14.556.881.37-
2020/52.3125.72-9.288.94-16.85.971.58-
2020/41.841.24-17.066.63-19.145.01.88-
2020/31.8235.39-30.694.79-19.914.792.28-
2020/21.34-17.2929.552.97-11.485.362.04-
2020/11.62-32.16-29.851.62-29.856.611.65-
2019/122.39-7.57-5.9229.02-13.670.0N/A-
2019/112.59-13.87-19.4826.63-14.310.0N/A-
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/11.972023/12.162022/12.142021/12.562020/11.62
2024/21.572023/21.972022/22.032021/21.312020/21.34
2024/32.062023/32.362022/31.92021/33.012020/31.82
2024/41.772023/42.682022/41.72021/42.282020/41.84
2024/52.782023/52.692022/53.462021/52.132020/52.31
2024/63.282023/62.422022/62.792021/62.212020/62.73
2024/72.82023/72.812022/72.912021/72.02020/72.89
2024/83.132023/82.772022/83.442021/81.42020/82.08
2024/92.32023/92.432022/92.842021/91.542020/92.74
2024/102.372023/102.382022/103.542021/101.332020/102.03
N/AN/A2023/112.192022/113.552021/111.682020/112.19
N/AN/A2023/122.52022/122.442021/122.362020/122.77
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 6.43%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
24Q3 (20)0.5431.7128.57
24Q2 (19)0.4124.24-10.87
24Q1 (18)0.33-19.51-41.07
23Q4 (17)0.41-2.38-21.15
23Q3 (16)0.42-8.70.0
23Q2 (15)0.46-17.86-16.36
23Q1 (14)0.567.699.8
22Q4 (13)0.5223.810.0
22Q3 (12)0.42-23.645.0
22Q2 (11)0.557.84-6.78
22Q1 (10)0.51-1.9215.91
21Q4 (9)0.5230.0-28.77
21Q3 (8)0.4-32.2-20.0
21Q2 (7)0.5934.093.51
21Q1 (6)0.44-39.73-4.35
20Q4 (5)0.7346.058.7
20Q3 (4)0.5-12.280.0
20Q2 (3)0.5723.910.0
20Q1 (2)0.460.00.0
19Q4 (1)0.460.00.0

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