玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/100.59-18.053.068.78-7.412.22N/A依訂單生產及出貨排程協調,故本月較去年同期出貨增加。
2024/90.72-21.34-29.868.19-9.963.340.67-
2024/80.91-46.486.427.48-7.443.780.59-
2024/71.7146.6624.736.56-9.093.410.66-
2024/61.16114.74.344.86-16.992.470.94-
2024/50.54-28.97-33.513.69-22.021.721.35-
2024/40.7683.23-26.623.15-19.632.11.11-
2024/30.42-54.63-60.622.39-17.112.390.82依訂單生產及出貨排程協調,故本月出貨減少。
2024/20.92-13.0527.251.978.093.010.65-
2024/11.062.09-4.421.06-4.423.320.59-
2023/121.03-16.13.8111.75-23.722.650.68-
2023/111.23220.28-1.3110.72-25.632.640.69-
2023/100.38-62.42-62.499.48-27.932.270.810月份較去年同期減少主係因應客戶要求調整出貨時程,故使本月營收減少
2023/91.0219.34-6.659.1-25.013.250.71-
2023/80.86-37.27-49.738.08-26.843.340.69-
2023/71.3722.69-5.477.22-22.653.30.7-
2023/61.1136.8-40.655.85-25.812.970.75-
2023/50.81-21.61-36.044.74-21.172.910.77-
2023/41.04-1.6610.923.92-17.172.820.79-
2023/31.0646.6229.52.88-24.12.880.91-
2023/20.72-34.69-47.591.83-38.782.820.93-
2023/11.110.89-31.231.1-31.233.350.79-
2022/121.0-20.24-43.1715.4114.143.270.87-
2022/111.2521.7335.7114.4122.693.370.85-
2022/101.03-6.49-19.5813.1621.583.830.75-
2022/91.1-35.736.8412.1427.084.250.76-
2022/81.7117.9417.8811.0429.525.030.64-
2022/71.45-22.960.229.3331.94.60.7-
2022/61.8847.42176.597.8940.024.090.84主要係去年六月緬甸港壅塞嚴重影響出貨,今年六月緬甸港出貨逐漸恢復正常所致。
2022/51.2735.9332.966.0121.33.031.14-
2022/40.9414.8-22.574.7318.573.131.1-
2022/30.82-40.6634.223.836.463.81.03無。
2022/21.38-14.3113.752.9837.094.730.83-
2022/11.61-8.3666.351.6166.354.280.921月份較去年同期增加主係因東南亞疫情趨緩,產能恢復使本月營收增加。
2021/121.7590.4842.9213.5-14.03.950.99無。
2021/110.92-27.8619.9311.75-18.823.221.22無。
2021/101.2824.2221.9710.83-20.993.751.05無。
2021/91.03-29.09-8.129.55-24.543.921.12無。
2021/81.450.27-9.318.52-26.133.571.23無。
2021/71.44112.59-37.277.08-28.833.081.42無。
2021/60.68-29.12-66.85.63-26.292.851.56本月營收衰退主要係緬甸港口壅塞使船運延遲開航。
2021/50.96-20.84-15.214.95-11.482.781.6-
2021/41.2199.0234.823.99-10.583.031.47-
2021/30.61-49.71-45.262.78-22.012.781.17-
2021/21.2125.319.272.17-11.493.40.96-
2021/10.97-21.27-28.520.97-28.522.961.1-
2020/121.2359.85-19.8915.69-14.613.040.99-
2020/110.77-26.64-39.3514.47-14.132.931.03-
2020/101.05-6.43-6.613.7-12.083.760.8-
2020/91.12-30.0-32.3112.66-12.515.010.48-
2020/81.6-30.63-37.6811.54-9.965.940.41-
2020/72.312.527.779.94-3.035.480.44-
2020/62.0580.9943.477.64-9.64.070.81-
2020/51.1325.87-28.465.6-20.363.171.04-
2020/40.9-21.39-46.14.47-18.023.151.05-
2020/31.143.19-18.513.6-4.773.60.89-
2020/21.11-18.0324.722.463.323.990.81-
2020/11.35-11.77-9.371.35-9.374.150.78-
2019/121.5321.0233.6818.38-7.040.0N/A-
2019/111.2612.9730.7516.85-9.540.0N/A-
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/11.062023/11.12022/11.612021/10.972020/11.35
2024/20.922023/20.722022/21.382021/21.212020/21.11
2024/30.422023/31.062022/30.822021/30.612020/31.14
2024/40.762023/41.042022/40.942021/41.212020/40.9
2024/50.542023/50.812022/51.272021/50.962020/51.13
2024/61.162023/61.112022/61.882021/60.682020/62.05
2024/71.712023/71.372022/71.452021/71.442020/72.3
2024/80.912023/80.862022/81.712021/81.452020/81.6
2024/90.722023/91.022022/91.12021/91.032020/91.12
2024/100.592023/100.382022/101.032021/101.282020/101.05
N/AN/A2023/111.232022/111.252021/110.922020/110.77
N/AN/A2023/121.032022/121.02021/121.752020/121.23
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 1.78%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
24Q3 (20)0.0928.570.0
24Q2 (19)0.07-30.0133.33
24Q1 (18)0.1150.0233.33
23Q4 (17)0.04-55.5633.33
23Q3 (16)0.09200.0-18.18
23Q2 (15)0.030.0-57.14
23Q1 (14)0.030.0-25.0
22Q4 (13)0.03-72.73-57.14
22Q3 (12)0.1157.1410.0
22Q2 (11)0.0775.0-58.82
22Q1 (10)0.04-42.860.0
21Q4 (9)0.07-30.00
21Q3 (8)0.1-41.180
21Q2 (7)0.17325.00
21Q1 (6)0.0400

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