玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/110.68-17.45-54.0111.27-32.612.15N/A部分工案接近完工,新承攬工程可認列收入較少所致。
2024/100.8329.2-46.1210.59-30.532.48N/A-
2024/90.64-36.42-69.69.76-28.782.530.0部分工案接近完工,新承攬工程可認列收入較少所致。
2024/81.0114.67-36.169.12-21.362.720.0-
2024/70.885.3-60.158.11-19.032.640.0部分工案接近完工,可認列收入較少所致。
2024/60.83-10.33-39.917.23-7.423.390.0-
2024/50.93-42.58-15.666.4-0.43.480.0-
2024/41.6273.7443.115.472.764.010.0-
2024/30.93-35.89-33.183.85-8.143.850.0-
2024/21.46-0.24-12.832.914.365.280.0-
2024/11.46-38.3129.941.4629.945.310.0-
2023/122.3659.1480.9919.0940.855.390.0配合業主工程進度,認列較多工程收入所致。
2023/111.49-3.2723.3716.7336.575.130.0-
2023/101.54-27.1119.0615.2438.015.220.0-
2023/92.1133.5261.0313.740.515.890.0配合業主工程進度,認列較多工程收入所致。
2023/81.58-28.4223.711.637.335.170.0-
2023/72.2158.8167.5210.0239.764.70.0配合業主進度,認列較多工程收入所致。
2023/61.3925.852.727.8123.163.620.0-
2023/51.1-2.56-0.946.4228.693.630.0-
2023/41.13-18.88-2.055.3237.214.20.0-
2023/31.4-16.3632.344.1953.94.190.0配合業主工程進度,認列較多工程收入所致。
2023/21.6748.7161.512.7967.544.10.0配合業主進度,故本期認列較多工程收入。
2023/11.12-14.079.191.129.193.630.0-
2022/121.318.47-13.8713.55-4.593.80.0-
2022/111.2-6.65-31.5112.25-3.483.80.0-
2022/101.29-1.4261.5811.041.023.880.0主要係疫情趨緩,委辦營運之國民運動中心營收增溫所致。
2022/91.312.57-2.619.75-3.743.410.0-
2022/81.2854.781.018.44-3.913.450.0-
2022/70.82-39.02-14.767.17-4.743.290.0-
2022/61.3521.3617.246.34-3.263.620.0-
2022/51.11-3.66-23.364.99-7.643.330.0-
2022/41.169.6-11.713.88-1.862.850.0-
2022/31.0565.2533.122.723.022.720.0-
2022/20.64-37.9-1.071.67-9.883.180.0-
2022/11.03-32.2-14.591.03-14.594.30.0-
2021/121.52-13.77-3.2714.216.664.070.0-
2021/111.76120.2525.5212.697.993.90.0-
2021/100.8-40.59-38.2910.935.613.410.0-
2021/91.346.39-0.0910.1311.893.570.0-
2021/81.2630.61-6.128.7913.983.380.0-
2021/70.97-16.12-9.857.5218.233.570.0-
2021/61.15-20.6622.916.5623.923.920.0-
2021/51.4510.9748.415.424.133.560.0-
2021/41.3165.2715.373.9517.092.750.0-
2021/30.7922.79-6.462.6417.962.640.0-
2021/20.65-46.39-11.711.8532.833.420.0-
2021/11.2-23.1982.11.282.14.170.0配合業主工程進度,故認列較多收入所致。
2020/121.5711.86-18.6713.3215.424.260.0-
2020/111.48.289.9111.7522.264.040.0-
2020/101.29-3.813.7710.3524.153.980.0-
2020/91.35-0.0233.429.0527.733.760.0-
2020/81.3525.42123.817.7126.793.360.0配合業主工程進度,故認列較多收入所致。
2020/71.0714.3641.086.3616.142.990.0-
2020/60.94-4.2-2.415.2912.133.050.0-
2020/50.98-13.7387.094.3515.852.960.0配合業主工程進度,認列較高收入所致。
2020/41.1433.99-10.133.374.322.710.0-
2020/30.8515.913.452.2413.592.240.0-
2020/20.7310.5726.561.3913.673.320.0-
2020/10.66-65.72.160.662.160.0N/A-
2019/121.9351.2399.1711.54-4.110.0N/A配合工程進度趕工,完工比提高,認列收入金額增加所致。
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/11.462023/11.122022/11.032021/11.22020/10.66
2024/21.462023/21.672022/20.642021/20.652020/20.73
2024/30.932023/31.42022/31.052021/30.792020/30.85
2024/41.622023/41.132022/41.162021/41.312020/41.14
2024/50.932023/51.12022/51.112021/51.452020/50.98
2024/60.832023/61.392022/61.352021/61.152020/60.94
2024/70.882023/72.212022/70.822021/70.972020/71.07
2024/81.012023/81.582022/81.282021/81.262020/81.35
2024/90.642023/92.112022/91.312021/91.342020/91.35
2024/100.832023/101.542022/101.292021/100.82020/101.29
2024/110.682023/111.492022/111.22021/111.762020/111.4
N/AN/A2023/122.362022/121.312021/121.522020/121.57
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 17.18%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
24Q3 (20)0.65-38.68-63.89
24Q2 (19)1.06-33.7534.18
24Q1 (18)1.6-5.33233.33
23Q4 (17)1.69-6.1167.33
23Q3 (16)1.8127.8593.55
23Q2 (15)0.7964.58-24.76
23Q1 (14)0.48-52.48-58.26
22Q4 (13)1.018.63.06
22Q3 (12)0.93-11.43-13.89
22Q2 (11)1.05-8.7228.12
22Q1 (10)1.1517.3557.53
21Q4 (9)0.98-9.2666.1
21Q3 (8)1.08237.518.68
21Q2 (7)0.32-56.16-83.07
21Q1 (6)0.7323.73-13.1
20Q4 (5)0.59-35.16-24.36
20Q3 (4)0.91-51.850.0
20Q2 (3)1.89125.00.0
20Q1 (2)0.847.690.0
19Q4 (1)0.780.00.0

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