玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/101.83-15.68-5.1918.180.126.07N/A-
2024/92.174.6517.816.350.755.971.52-
2024/82.0719.7713.2814.18-1.425.731.58-
2024/71.73-10.3122.4512.11-3.565.61.62-
2024/61.93-0.73-5.4910.38-6.865.841.57-
2024/51.94-1.046.998.45-7.175.811.58-
2024/41.963.4211.596.5-10.75.131.78-
2024/31.949.75-14.534.54-17.814.542.19-
2024/21.27-7.58-26.182.64-20.014.632.14-
2024/11.37-30.95-13.321.37-13.325.461.82-
2023/121.99-5.56-18.7722.24-31.096.01.76-
2023/112.110.39-11.7220.26-32.115.871.8-
2023/101.912.32-17.8118.15-33.885.61.89-
2023/91.861.83-17.5716.25-35.365.092.19-
2023/81.8330.44-35.4914.38-37.125.282.11-
2023/71.4-31.64-50.9912.55-37.355.272.12主係受國際情勢動盪影響,整體景氣下滑所致。
2023/62.0512.94-27.711.15-35.075.631.93-
2023/51.823.19-36.319.1-36.535.81.88-
2023/41.76-20.77-39.757.28-36.595.71.91-
2023/32.2229.29-34.595.52-35.515.522.03-
2023/21.728.53-23.273.3-36.115.751.95-
2023/11.58-35.29-45.931.58-45.936.411.75-
2022/122.452.66-5.4132.281.387.151.61-
2022/112.382.73-23.629.841.986.961.65-
2022/102.322.64-18.3827.455.037.421.55-
2022/92.26-20.3-22.5325.137.897.961.6-
2022/82.84-0.922.7522.8712.258.541.49-
2022/72.860.875.0720.0413.748.551.49-
2022/62.84-0.512.6317.1815.328.611.44-
2022/52.85-2.3713.0514.3418.229.171.36-
2022/42.92-13.9910.0111.4919.578.561.45-
2022/33.451.6718.898.5623.238.561.38-
2022/22.24-23.5114.345.1726.267.751.53-
2022/12.9313.1937.192.9337.198.631.37-
2021/122.59-17.0810.6131.8429.868.551.24-
2021/113.129.7541.1929.2631.898.881.2-
2021/102.84-2.5752.1526.1430.868.521.25主係新冠肺炎疫情影響趨緩,帶動市場景氣需求提升所致。
2021/92.925.7259.1123.2928.678.41.27主係新冠肺炎疫情影響趨緩,帶動半導體、5G基礎建設及自動化等產業需求提升所致。
2021/82.761.345.620.3825.248.251.29-
2021/72.72-1.4612.3717.6222.558.011.33-
2021/62.769.5850.714.8924.627.941.34主係新冠肺炎疫情影響趨緩,帶動市場景氣需求提升所致。
2021/52.52-4.9914.1612.1319.898.041.33-
2021/42.66-7.0513.889.6121.497.471.43-
2021/32.8645.8713.046.9524.676.951.41-
2021/21.96-8.2211.434.0934.316.431.53-
2021/12.13-8.7865.52.1365.56.681.47去年一月適逢農曆春節假期,致營收較去年同期成長65.51%。
2020/122.345.8831.7824.5220.116.421.42-
2020/112.2118.2745.2822.1819.05.911.54-
2020/101.871.8813.5819.9716.675.61.62-
2020/91.83-3.1736.3218.117.06.151.59-
2020/81.89-21.9319.7316.2715.166.151.59-
2020/72.4332.2435.614.3814.586.471.51-
2020/61.83-16.98-4.7511.9511.096.381.58-
2020/52.21-5.226.4910.1214.547.071.43-
2020/42.33-7.7415.17.9117.026.621.53-
2020/32.5343.7925.055.5717.845.571.79-
2020/21.7636.356.693.0512.464.832.07去年二月適逢農曆春節假期,致營收較去年同期成長56.70%。
2020/11.29-27.61-18.781.29-18.784.592.17-
2019/121.7817.13-6.2420.42-27.30.0N/A-
2019/111.52-7.51-23.3418.64-28.830.0N/A-
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/11.372023/11.582022/12.932021/12.132020/11.29
2024/21.272023/21.722022/22.242021/21.962020/21.76
2024/31.92023/32.222022/33.42021/32.862020/32.53
2024/41.962023/41.762022/42.922021/42.662020/42.33
2024/51.942023/51.822022/52.852021/52.522020/52.21
2024/61.932023/62.052022/62.842021/62.762020/61.83
2024/71.732023/71.42022/72.862021/72.722020/72.43
2024/82.072023/81.832022/82.842021/82.762020/81.89
2024/92.172023/91.862022/92.262021/92.922020/91.83
2024/101.832023/101.912022/102.322021/102.842020/101.87
N/AN/A2023/112.12022/112.382021/113.122020/112.21
N/AN/A2023/121.992022/122.452021/122.592020/122.34
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 3.42%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
24Q3 (20)0.415.13127.78
24Q2 (19)0.3956.069.57
24Q1 (18)0.254.1725.0
23Q4 (17)0.2433.3341.18
23Q3 (16)0.18-21.74-40.0
23Q2 (15)0.2315.0-28.12
23Q1 (14)0.217.65-37.5
22Q4 (13)0.17-43.33-51.43
22Q3 (12)0.3-6.25-23.08
22Q2 (11)0.320.0-13.51
22Q1 (10)0.32-8.57-20.0
21Q4 (9)0.35-10.26-22.22
21Q3 (8)0.395.41-9.3
21Q2 (7)0.37-7.5-5.13
21Q1 (6)0.4-11.1160.0
20Q4 (5)0.454.6595.65
20Q3 (4)0.4310.260.0
20Q2 (3)0.3956.00.0
20Q1 (2)0.258.70.0
19Q4 (1)0.230.00.0

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