玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/101.433.7694.938.42-47.794.19N/A客戶需求回升,因此產品出貨量增加
2024/91.380.02110.676.99-54.63.580.7113年上半年客戶訂單量少,導致累計營收較去年同期少
2024/81.3869.191.725.61-61.952.950.85客戶需求下調,導致產品出貨量減少
2024/70.828.14-12.734.23-69.842.311.08客戶需求下調,導致產品出貨量減少
2024/60.752.03-39.293.41-73.922.041.41客戶需求下調,導致產品出貨量減少
2024/50.7435.7-52.112.66-77.551.821.58客戶需求下調,導致產品出貨量減少
2024/40.541.56-78.251.92-81.361.51.91客戶需求下調,導致產品出貨量減少
2024/30.5427.16-79.511.37-82.361.371.92客戶需求下調,導致產品出貨量減少
2024/20.421.49-83.580.84-83.811.431.84客戶需求下調,導致產品出貨量減少
2024/10.42-30.14-84.040.42-84.041.71.55客戶需求下調,導致產品出貨量減少
2023/120.6-14.01-79.517.42-41.322.021.27客戶需求下調,導致產品出貨量減少
2023/110.69-5.79-78.7616.83-37.192.081.23客戶需求下調,導致產品出貨量減少
2023/100.7312.13-75.5216.13-31.432.111.22客戶需求下調,導致產品出貨量減少
2023/90.66-8.97-76.5815.4-24.982.311.41客戶需求下調,導致產品出貨量減少
2023/80.72-23.03-73.3514.74-16.842.91.12客戶需求下調,導致產品出貨量減少
2023/70.94-24.77-65.3514.02-6.683.720.88客戶需求下調,導致產品出貨量減少
2023/61.24-19.51-47.6513.096.165.290.74-
2023/51.54-38.38-37.0311.8519.06.670.58-
2023/42.51-4.2921.5710.337.337.70.51-
2023/32.621.9123.17.7943.37.790.86-
2023/22.57-1.3539.675.1856.288.080.83主係因本月高階產品出貨量較去年同期增加。
2023/12.61-10.2677.072.6177.078.770.77去年同期主力產品受缺料影響出貨量減少所致。
2022/122.9-10.9177.1729.6916.489.161.01去年同期主力產品受缺料影響出貨量減少所致。
2022/113.268.5498.5426.7912.319.061.03去年同期主力產品受缺料影響,導致出貨量減少所致。
2022/103.07.361.6723.535.948.51.09由於去年同期主力產品受缺料影響,導致出貨量減少所致。
2022/92.83.5556.8420.530.858.21.33由於去年同期主力產品受缺料影響,導致出貨量減少所致。
2022/82.70.0941.1217.73-4.517.781.41-
2022/72.713.6636.1215.03-9.767.531.45-
2022/62.37-3.193.0812.33-15.966.891.37-
2022/52.4518.97-2.59.95-19.516.641.42-
2022/42.06-3.09-14.137.5-23.866.031.56-
2022/32.1315.63-18.55.44-26.995.441.48-
2022/21.8425.05-20.773.31-31.574.951.62-
2022/11.47-10.21-41.541.47-41.544.751.69-
2021/121.64-0.16-40.8625.49-23.665.141.53-
2021/111.64-11.61-48.9323.85-22.15.281.49-
2021/101.864.1-42.0222.21-18.965.561.41-
2021/91.78-6.82-43.9820.35-15.95.681.12-
2021/81.91-3.45-39.4818.57-11.656.21.02-
2021/71.98-13.92-36.3216.65-6.726.80.93-
2021/62.3-8.44-20.714.67-0.477.220.89-
2021/52.524.78-9.2612.374.497.530.85-
2021/42.4-8.01-4.329.858.77.330.88-
2021/32.6112.48.367.4513.697.450.92-
2021/22.32-7.7310.44.8416.797.610.9-
2021/12.52-9.1523.382.5223.388.50.81-
2020/122.77-13.7910.7533.3931.779.190.74-
2020/113.210.3431.1730.6234.079.60.71-
2020/103.20.5832.8327.4134.429.550.71-
2020/93.180.6536.3924.234.639.460.84-
2020/83.161.5970.6321.0234.379.180.86主係因本月份出貨量較去年同期增加所致。
2020/73.117.1857.0617.8629.58.790.9主係因本月份出貨量較去年同期增加所致。
2020/62.914.7644.4514.7424.878.190.79-
2020/52.7710.4924.7511.8420.857.690.84-
2020/42.514.1815.869.0619.77.020.92-
2020/32.4114.5212.936.5521.236.551.11-
2020/22.13.167.074.1426.656.651.1主係因本月份出貨量較去年同期增加所致。
2020/12.04-18.451.362.041.366.991.04-
2019/122.52.0918.8725.3431.240.0N/A-
2019/112.451.6234.6722.8432.750.0N/A-
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/10.422023/12.612022/11.472021/12.522020/12.04
2024/20.422023/22.572022/21.842021/22.322020/22.1
2024/30.542023/32.622022/32.132021/32.612020/32.41
2024/40.542023/42.512022/42.062021/42.42020/42.51
2024/50.742023/51.542022/52.452021/52.522020/52.77
2024/60.752023/61.242022/62.372021/62.32020/62.91
2024/70.822023/70.942022/72.72021/71.982020/73.11
2024/81.382023/80.722022/82.72021/81.912020/83.16
2024/91.382023/90.662022/92.82021/91.782020/93.18
2024/101.432023/100.732022/103.02021/101.862020/103.2
N/AN/A2023/110.692022/113.262021/111.642020/113.21
N/AN/A2023/120.62022/122.92021/121.642020/122.77
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 11.47%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
24Q3 (20)0.92-10.68-2.13
24Q2 (19)1.0390.7427.16
24Q1 (18)0.545.88-80.36
23Q4 (17)0.51-45.74-86.44
23Q3 (16)0.9416.050
23Q2 (15)0.81-70.550
23Q1 (14)2.75-26.860
22Q4 (13)3.7600

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