玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/111.486.050.812.951.024.08N/A兩年度營收整體變動不大,係因客戶先前去化減少訂單,而本期客戶較集中下單導致
2024/101.3914.9733.3811.47-3.083.78N/A-
2024/91.212.5-0.3410.08-6.613.680.44-
2024/81.18-8.18-7.588.87-7.43.750.43-
2024/71.290.255.037.69-7.373.650.44-
2024/61.2818.3311.266.4-9.523.490.48-
2024/51.08-3.22-6.865.12-13.573.210.53-
2024/41.1211.699.634.04-15.22.90.58-
2024/31.029.65-17.752.92-21.992.920.59-
2024/20.77-32.08-35.541.91-24.053.160.55-
2024/11.14-8.43-13.591.14-13.593.360.51-
2023/121.2427.16-17.4114.06-32.133.270.55-
2023/110.98-6.24-50.8112.81-33.293.240.55去年同期係因疫情後客戶端較以往有備料需求大幅拉貨,而本期無此情形使營收大幅下滑。
2023/101.04-14.09-43.6511.84-31.263.540.5-
2023/91.21-4.94-36.5310.79-29.773.720.51-
2023/81.284.34-38.599.58-28.813.660.52-
2023/71.226.2-32.558.3-27.023.540.53-
2023/61.15-0.95-44.927.08-25.973.340.67-
2023/51.1613.92-34.825.92-20.653.410.66-
2023/41.02-16.2-30.924.76-16.23.440.65-
2023/31.221.6-23.953.74-11.013.740.74-
2023/21.2-8.9614.022.52-3.024.020.68-
2023/11.32-12.48-14.641.32-14.644.810.57-
2022/121.51-24.250.1820.7224.585.350.59-
2022/111.997.3839.3719.2127.015.750.55-
2022/101.85-3.2437.1617.2225.725.850.54-
2022/91.91-8.0118.715.3724.475.810.58-
2022/82.0814.5935.3313.4625.335.990.56-
2022/71.82-13.2730.711.3823.665.70.59-
2022/62.0917.2146.279.5622.415.360.62-
2022/51.7920.7330.967.4717.064.870.68-
2022/41.48-7.749.025.6813.284.140.8-
2022/31.652.343.734.214.864.20.83-
2022/21.05-31.8420.272.623.014.10.85-
2022/11.542.7224.951.5424.954.470.78-
2021/121.55.3613.3316.638.874.280.87-
2021/111.435.6842.9115.128.454.390.85-
2021/101.35-16.2621.4913.75.794.50.83-
2021/91.614.8613.0712.354.314.540.75-
2021/81.5410.6732.9710.743.114.360.78-
2021/71.39-2.94-2.179.2-0.614.180.81-
2021/61.434.94-2.767.81-0.324.150.69-
2021/51.360.51-20.136.380.234.270.67-
2021/41.36-12.22-19.625.017.73.780.76-
2021/31.5576.6326.093.6623.253.660.65-
2021/20.88-29.1933.52.1121.253.440.69-
2021/11.24-6.8313.851.2413.853.560.67-
2020/121.3332.878.2315.279.053.440.64-
2020/111.0-10.15-27.713.959.133.540.62-
2020/101.11-22.07-0.812.9513.593.690.6-
2020/91.4323.32-2.011.8415.174.00.52-
2020/81.16-18.58-22.4610.4118.04.050.51-
2020/71.42-3.5227.989.2526.234.60.45-
2020/61.47-13.857.967.8325.924.870.39本月營收較去年同期營收成長,因去年同期客戶產品交替過渡期使營收下降,本期訂單陸續回穩所致。
2020/51.711.1532.556.3620.284.620.41-
2020/41.6937.7182.824.6516.333.570.53本月合併營收較去年同期增加,係因子公司(常州振揚)2-3月受疫情影響減緩出貨,4月疫情緩解客戶需求訂單增加使合併營收上升
2020/31.2387.0129.062.97-3.612.970.62-
2020/20.66-39.61-3.181.74-18.192.970.62-
2020/11.09-11.43-25.191.09-25.190.0N/A-
2019/121.23-11.24-11.414.0-23.410.0N/A-
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/11.142023/11.322022/11.542021/11.242020/11.09
2024/20.772023/21.22022/21.052021/20.882020/20.66
2024/31.02023/31.222022/31.62021/31.552020/31.23
2024/41.122023/41.022022/41.482021/41.362020/41.69
2024/51.082023/51.162022/51.792021/51.362020/51.71
2024/61.282023/61.152022/62.092021/61.432020/61.47
2024/71.292023/71.222022/71.822021/71.392020/71.42
2024/81.182023/81.282022/82.082021/81.542020/81.16
2024/91.212023/91.212022/91.912021/91.612020/91.43
2024/101.392023/101.042022/101.852021/101.352020/101.11
2024/111.482023/110.982022/111.992021/111.432020/111.0
N/AN/A2023/121.242022/121.512021/121.52020/121.33
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 0.9%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
24Q3 (20)0.13-31.5862.5
24Q2 (19)0.19-44.125.56
24Q1 (18)0.34-5.56209.09
23Q4 (17)0.36350.0500.0
23Q3 (16)0.08-55.560
23Q2 (15)0.1863.640
23Q1 (14)0.1183.330
22Q4 (13)0.0600

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