玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/100.4810.1853.424.37-9.221.39N/A主係新產品生產銷售數量增加
2024/90.43-9.48-28.773.89-13.571.41.52-
2024/80.48-1.93-21.983.45-11.191.41.52-
2024/70.4913.389.242.97-9.161.451.47-
2024/60.43-17.55-2.642.48-12.081.641.34-
2024/50.52-23.3516.292.05-13.841.541.42-
2024/40.68105.2253.461.53-20.871.21.83銷售數量增加
2024/30.3382.93-24.610.84-43.160.842.52-
2024/20.18-44.66-66.10.51-51.020.842.53市場需求下降
2024/10.33-0.2-35.020.33-35.020.92.37-
2023/120.3337.13-53.865.38-19.210.882.5市場景氣循環下降
2023/110.24-22.99-66.994.81-19.051.161.9市場景氣循環下降
2023/100.31-48.85-28.034.81-7.791.541.44-
2023/90.61-0.84-1.524.5-5.961.671.28-
2023/80.6237.31-0.733.89-6.621.511.43-
2023/70.451.0422.53.27-7.651.341.6-
2023/60.44-1.5130.522.83-11.121.341.34-
2023/50.451.13-10.492.38-16.111.341.34-
2023/40.450.8126.471.93-17.321.421.26-
2023/30.44-17.74-27.971.49-25.091.491.26-
2023/20.546.0716.691.04-23.81.761.06-
2023/10.51-29.14-44.310.51-44.311.950.96-
2022/120.71-1.9-42.986.66-65.851.881.09市場景氣循環回穩
2022/110.7367.93-50.645.95-67.421.791.14市場景氣循環回穩
2022/100.43-30.43-74.355.22-68.91.681.21市場景氣循環回穩
2022/90.620.55-67.074.9-67.51.611.21市場景氣循環回穩
2022/80.6268.28-68.314.28-67.561.331.47
2022/70.377.65-79.363.54-68.441.211.61市場景氣循環回穩
2022/60.34-32.46-81.713.18-66.391.21.8市場景氣循環回穩
2022/50.542.91-70.452.84-62.641.471.46市場景氣循環回穩
2022/40.35-42.59-79.742.34-60.381.431.51市場景氣循環回穩
2022/30.6133.27-63.811.98-52.291.980.97市場景氣循環回穩
2022/20.46-49.38-61.271.37-44.362.620.73市場景氣循環回穩
2022/10.91-27.46-28.550.91-28.553.640.53-
2021/121.25-15.0741.8919.51200.464.420.54產業景氣復甦
2021/111.48-12.74108.5718.26225.435.060.47產業景氣復甦
2021/101.69-10.66209.3816.78242.35.550.43產業景氣復甦
2021/91.89-3.5218.3415.09246.445.630.37產業景氣復甦
2021/81.9610.68256.2613.2250.885.60.38產業景氣復甦
2021/71.77-4.63310.7311.23249.955.340.4產業景氣復甦
2021/61.869.12400.289.46240.515.30.42產業景氣復甦
2021/51.7-2.0523.697.6215.835.140.43產業景氣復甦
2021/41.742.55158.895.9176.44.620.48產業景氣復甦
2021/31.742.61227.714.16184.454.160.44產業景氣復甦
2021/21.19-6.6207.682.46160.743.350.55產業景氣復甦
2021/11.2744.08128.231.27128.232.860.65產業景氣復甦
2020/120.8824.825.646.49-41.422.140.94-
2020/110.7129.42-15.35.61-45.261.851.09-
2020/100.55-8.08-29.374.9-47.921.691.19-
2020/90.597.98-25.934.36-49.581.581.29-
2020/80.5527.61-10.593.76-52.01.351.51受到中美貿易戰及新冠病毒疫情影響致使營收減少
2020/70.4316.15-52.683.21-55.541.081.89受到中美貿易戰以及新冠疫情沖擊影響
2020/60.3736.04-57.332.78-55.951.321.6受中美貿易戰及疫情影響
2020/50.27-59.32-69.072.41-55.731.461.44主要受到中美貿易戰影響美元訂單減少及台灣縮編所致
2020/40.6729.81-40.752.13-53.141.581.33主要受到中美貿易戰影響美元訂單減少及台灣縮編所致
2020/30.5233.9-49.911.46-57.251.461.69主要受到中美貿易戰影響美元訂單減少及台灣縮編所致
2020/20.39-30.72-58.460.94-60.431.781.39主要受到中美貿易戰影響美元訂單減少及台灣縮編所致
2020/10.56-33.3-61.680.56-61.682.231.11主要受到中美貿易戰影響美元訂單減少及台灣縮編所致
2019/120.840.07-40.0311.09-54.460.0N/A主要受到中美貿易戰影響美元訂單減少所致
2019/110.847.92-40.0510.25-55.330.0N/A主要受到中美貿易戰影響美元訂單減少所致
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/10.332023/10.512022/10.912021/11.272020/10.56
2024/20.182023/20.542022/20.462021/21.192020/20.39
2024/30.332023/30.442022/30.612021/31.72020/30.52
2024/40.682023/40.452022/40.352021/41.742020/40.67
2024/50.522023/50.452022/50.52021/51.72020/50.27
2024/60.432023/60.442022/60.342021/61.862020/60.37
2024/70.492023/70.452022/70.372021/71.772020/70.43
2024/80.482023/80.622022/80.622021/81.962020/80.55
2024/90.432023/90.612022/90.622021/91.892020/90.59
2024/100.482023/100.312022/100.432021/101.692020/100.55
N/AN/A2023/110.242022/110.732021/111.482020/110.71
N/AN/A2023/120.332022/120.712021/121.252020/120.88
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 1.49%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
24Q3 (20)0.19-36.671800.0
24Q2 (19)0.3-11.761400.0
24Q1 (18)0.341600.03300.0
23Q4 (17)0.02100.0100.0
23Q3 (16)0.01-50.00.0
23Q2 (15)0.02100.00.0
23Q1 (14)0.010.0-87.5
22Q4 (13)0.010.0-75.0
22Q3 (12)0.01-50.0-50.0
22Q2 (11)0.02-75.0-60.0
22Q1 (10)0.08100.0-57.89
21Q4 (9)0.04100.0-33.33
21Q3 (8)0.02-60.00.0
21Q2 (7)0.05-73.68150.0
21Q1 (6)0.19216.67375.0
20Q4 (5)0.06200.0-45.45
20Q3 (4)0.020.00.0
20Q2 (3)0.02-50.00.0
20Q1 (2)0.04-63.640.0
19Q4 (1)0.110.00.0

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