玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/100.870.91-27.918.04-31.942.56N/A-
2024/90.864.12-20.257.18-32.392.560.26-
2024/80.83-5.03-34.136.31-33.772.310.29-
2024/70.8742.17-51.915.49-33.712.250.3係調整毛利率低的產品組合
2024/60.61-20.4-49.574.62-28.622.280.25-
2024/50.77-13.95-37.144.0-23.782.640.21-
2024/40.89-8.82-15.073.23-19.722.370.24-
2024/30.9897.28-12.042.34-21.372.340.24-
2024/20.5-42.36-49.621.36-26.962.520.23-
2024/10.86-25.95-1.390.86-1.393.180.18-
2023/121.161.0221.0414.14-12.523.520.2-
2023/111.15-4.336.412.97-14.653.440.2-
2023/101.2111.6412.4911.82-16.263.540.2-
2023/91.08-14.026.0610.61-18.624.150.2-
2023/81.26-30.6614.249.53-21.774.280.19-
2023/71.8149.132.428.28-25.334.250.2-
2023/61.21-0.78-10.146.47-33.463.490.33-
2023/51.2216.25-44.925.25-37.223.390.34-
2023/41.05-5.56-5.784.03-34.443.150.36-
2023/31.1212.98-39.252.98-40.812.980.32-
2023/20.9912.81-28.311.86-41.712.820.34-
2023/10.87-9.1-51.850.87-51.852.920.33整體市場需求低迷,且訂單往後遞延,導致本月營收較去年同期減少51.86%
2022/120.96-11.19-40.3416.16-20.543.120.38-
2022/111.081.13-30.1615.2-18.833.010.39-
2022/101.0725.11-31.9614.12-17.813.030.39-
2022/90.86-22.06-44.4713.04-16.383.320.36-
2022/81.1-19.63-35.7812.19-13.33.820.32-
2022/71.371.17-18.5311.09-10.184.940.24-
2022/61.35-39.19-32.799.72-8.874.690.26-
2022/52.2298.8838.448.37-3.315.180.24-
2022/41.12-39.11-37.616.15-12.824.330.28-
2022/31.8433.32-5.465.03-4.385.030.21-
2022/21.38-24.23-6.873.19-3.754.810.22-
2022/11.8212.64-1.251.82-1.254.980.21-
2021/121.613.95-17.3620.3410.294.740.2-
2021/111.55-1.47-2.3518.7313.564.670.21-
2021/101.582.110.3717.1815.264.830.2-
2021/91.54-9.87-18.4915.617.014.930.25-
2021/81.711.951.3814.0622.895.40.23-
2021/71.68-16.5312.1712.3526.615.30.23-
2021/62.0125.2725.0310.6729.235.410.21-
2021/51.61-10.37-6.028.6630.245.340.21-
2021/41.79-7.7413.677.0542.795.210.21-
2021/31.9431.3446.495.2656.445.260.25差異主係因去年同期受疫情影響,故去年營收較低
2021/21.48-19.6680.033.3262.925.270.25差異主係因去年同期受疫情影響,故營收較低。
2021/11.84-5.7251.361.8451.365.380.25差異主係因去年同期受疫情及春節影響,故營收較低。
2020/121.9522.8333.818.44-14.255.110.23-
2020/111.591.281.1616.49-17.755.050.24-
2020/101.57-17.08-5.0514.9-19.365.150.23-
2020/91.8912.1227.9913.33-20.775.080.21-
2020/81.6912.79-14.6911.44-25.464.790.22-
2020/71.5-6.96-31.849.75-27.064.810.22-
2020/61.61-5.84-27.888.26-26.124.890.21-
2020/51.718.39-16.546.65-25.684.610.22-
2020/41.5818.89-9.184.94-28.393.720.27-
2020/31.3361.41-10.53.36-34.853.360.36-
2020/20.82-32.45-36.482.04-44.653.50.34-
2020/11.22-16.66-49.071.22-49.074.250.28-
2019/121.46-7.13-33.7721.51-12.40.0N/A-
2019/111.57-4.93-44.020.05-10.290.0N/A-
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/10.862023/10.872022/11.822021/11.842020/11.22
2024/20.52023/20.992022/21.382021/21.482020/20.82
2024/30.982023/31.122022/31.842021/31.942020/31.33
2024/40.892023/41.052022/41.122021/41.792020/41.58
2024/50.772023/51.222022/52.222021/51.612020/51.71
2024/60.612023/61.212022/61.352021/62.012020/61.61
2024/70.872023/71.812022/71.372021/71.682020/71.5
2024/80.832023/81.262022/81.12021/81.712020/81.69
2024/90.862023/91.082022/90.862021/91.542020/91.89
2024/100.872023/101.212022/101.072021/101.582020/101.57
N/AN/A2023/111.152022/111.082021/111.552020/111.59
N/AN/A2023/121.162022/120.962021/121.612020/121.95
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 2.51%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
24Q3 (20)0.11175.083.33
24Q2 (19)0.04-33.33-50.0
24Q1 (18)0.06100.00
23Q4 (17)0.03-50.00
23Q3 (16)0.06-25.00
23Q2 (15)0.0800

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