玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/100.5352.0458.313.0923.71.34N/A本月營收主要因中國市場消費力提升,故營業收入較去年同期增加
2024/90.35-24.423.922.5618.351.040.54-
2024/80.4699.19337.922.2120.990.930.6本月營收主要因中國市場消費力提升,故營業收入較去年同期增加
2024/70.23-4.8771.261.751.650.730.77本月營收因中國市場消費力提升,故營業收入漸趨回穩
2024/60.24-4.58-18.181.52-4.260.90.58-
2024/50.25-36.22-45.261.28-1.060.950.55-
2024/40.436.2546.181.0223.860.790.66-
2024/30.29201.1946.180.6212.810.620.82-
2024/20.1-58.1-52.950.33-6.220.491.03本月營收,因中國疫情後整體消費力道減弱影響,故營業收入較去年同期大幅減少
2024/10.2342.3360.590.2360.590.660.77本月營收,因中國疫情後整體消費力道減弱影響,故營業收入較去年同期大幅減少
2023/120.16-38.7219.362.93-16.350.760.59-
2023/110.27-20.3-42.522.76-17.80.940.48-
2023/100.33-0.19-29.292.5-13.850.770.58-
2023/90.33218.45-14.052.16-10.840.580.99-
2023/80.11-22.1-70.471.83-10.220.541.06本月營收主要因中國市場消費力下降,故營業收入較去年同期減少
2023/70.14-54.55-64.491.722.540.90.64本月營收,因中國市場主要消費力下降,故營業收入較去年同期減少
2023/60.3-36.17-16.341.5922.151.040.42-
2023/50.4770.3480.581.2936.620.940.46本月營收,因中國疫情解封影響,故營業收入較去年同期大幅增加
2023/40.2736.25629.580.8320.130.680.63本月營收,因中國疫情解封影響,故營業收入較去年同期大幅增加
2023/30.2-3.06-4.260.55-15.00.551.07-
2023/20.2142.9938.260.35-20.110.491.21-
2023/10.145.79-50.180.14-50.180.740.79本月營收,因中國疫情解封影響,故營業收入較去年同期大幅減少
2022/120.14-70.49-58.433.5-12.41.070.59本月營收,因中國疫情解封影響,故營業收入較去年同期大幅減少
2022/110.46-1.95-14.713.36-8.271.330.48-
2022/100.4721.32-34.982.9-7.151.220.52-
2022/90.399.4-38.332.431.291.130.66-
2022/80.36-6.33-27.72.0415.491.090.68-
2022/70.387.075.71.6832.240.990.75-
2022/60.3637.79-40.321.342.720.651.48-
2022/50.26588.22537.650.94199.310.51.9本月營收,因對轉投資ACIM持有股權達100%,故將ACIM之5月營收合併納入,故造成整體營收大幅上升
2022/40.04-82.12-31.030.69149.620.42.42本月營收,因受中國疫情封城影響,故營業收入較去年同期大幅減少
2022/30.2139.99228.20.65194.020.651.45本月營收,因對轉投資ACIM持有股權達100%,故將ACIM之3月營收合併納入,故造成整體營收大幅上升
2022/20.15-48.48345.820.44180.140.771.22本月營收,因對轉投資ACIM持有股權達100%,故將ACIM之2月營收合併納入,故造成整體營收大幅上升
2022/10.29-11.73135.120.29135.121.160.81本月營收,因對轉投資ACIM持有股權達100%,故將ACIM之1月營收合併納入,故造成整體營收大幅上升
2021/120.33-39.4587.923.99165.111.60.61本月營收,因對轉投資ACIM持有股權達51%,故將ACIM之12月營收合併納入,故造成整體營收大幅上升
2021/110.54-25.26299.933.67175.261.90.51本月營收,因對轉投資ACIM持有股權達51%,故將ACIM之11月營收合併納入,故造成整體營收大幅上升
2021/100.7315.07995.613.12161.091.850.52本月營收,因對轉投資ACIM持有股權達51%,故將ACIM之9月營收合併納入,故造成整體營收大幅上升
2021/90.6328.25429.932.4112.051.480.59本月營收,因對轉投資ACIM持有股權達51%,故將ACIM之9月營收合併納入,故造成整體營收大幅上升
2021/80.4936.95304.721.7674.531.450.6本月營收,因對轉投資ACIM持有股權達51%,故將ACIM之8月營收合併納入,故造成整體營收大幅上升
2021/70.36-39.55211.691.2742.991.00.87本月營收,因對轉投資ACIM持有股權達51%,故將ACIM之7月營收合併納入,故造成整體營收大幅上升
2021/60.61372.291775.510.9117.810.691.26本月營收,因對轉投資ACIM持有股權達51%,故將ACIM之6月營收合併納入,故造成整體營收大幅上升
2021/50.04-25.56-28.580.32-57.420.165.49本月營收受中國肺炎疫情影響,市場消費力道衰退,故造成營收下滑
2021/40.05-14.91-83.120.28-59.80.155.74因市場產能過剩,公司採取保守策略接單所致
2021/30.0690.16-72.890.22-39.140.220.41因市場產能過剩,公司採取保守策略接單所致
2021/20.03-72.8318.710.1623.170.330.27-
2021/10.12-29.4524.440.1224.440.430.21-
2020/120.1828.84-56.281.51-62.760.380.27因今年肺炎疫情影響接單狀況不佳,造成今年當月營收偏低
2020/110.14104.74-88.071.33-63.470.320.31因今年肺炎疫情影響接單狀況不佳,造成今年當月營收偏低
2020/100.07-44.33-86.531.2-52.280.310.33因今年肺炎疫情影響接單狀況不佳,造成今年當月營收偏低
2020/90.12-2.04-71.61.13-43.90.360.25因今年肺炎疫情影響接單狀況不佳,造成今年當月營收偏低
2020/80.125.47-75.951.01-36.60.270.33因今年肺炎疫情影響接單狀況不佳,造成今年當月營收偏低
2020/70.12263.72-46.720.89-18.260.20.44本月營收受中國肺炎疫情影響,市場消費力道衰退,故造成營收下滑
2020/60.03-43.93-70.750.77-11.180.410.27本月營收受中國肺炎疫情影響,市場消費力道衰退,故造成營收下滑
2020/50.06-82.4-64.970.74-2.70.610.18本月營收受中國肺炎疫情影響,市場消費力道衰退,故造成營收下滑
2020/40.3236.639.860.6814.060.590.19-
2020/30.24732.8912.550.3618.060.360.3-
2020/20.03-71.5116.760.1329.80.530.21-
2020/10.1-75.2134.060.134.061.640.07-
2019/120.4-64.85306.044.05306.620.0N/A因去年同月接單狀況不佳,基數較低,造成今年本月增加幅度偏高
2019/111.14131.24948.333.65306.690.0N/A因去年同月接單狀況不佳,基數較低,造成今年本月增加幅度偏高
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/10.232023/10.142022/10.292021/10.122020/10.1
2024/20.12023/20.212022/20.152021/20.032020/20.03
2024/30.292023/30.22022/30.212021/30.062020/30.24
2024/40.42023/40.272022/40.042021/40.052020/40.32
2024/50.252023/50.472022/50.262021/50.042020/50.06
2024/60.242023/60.32022/60.362021/60.62020/60.03
2024/70.232023/70.142022/70.382021/70.362020/70.12
2024/80.462023/80.112022/80.362021/80.492020/80.12
2024/90.352023/90.332022/90.392021/90.632020/90.12
2024/100.532023/100.332022/100.472021/100.732020/100.07
N/AN/A2023/110.272022/110.462021/110.542020/110.14
N/AN/A2023/120.162022/120.142021/120.332020/120.18
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 3.31%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
24Q3 (20)0.249.0984.62
24Q2 (19)0.2237.5120.0
24Q1 (18)0.1645.4577.78
23Q4 (17)0.11-15.38-15.38
23Q3 (16)0.1330.08.33
23Q2 (15)0.111.11-37.5
23Q1 (14)0.09-30.77-25.0
22Q4 (13)0.138.330.0
22Q3 (12)0.12-25.0-42.86
22Q2 (11)0.1633.33-5.88
22Q1 (10)0.12-7.691100.0
21Q4 (9)0.13-38.10
21Q3 (8)0.2123.532000.0
21Q2 (7)0.171600.00
21Q1 (6)0.010-50.0

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