玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/106.48-8.89152.9749.0750.2819.84N/A受惠於全球AI及HPC客戶終端應用需求強勁持續拉貨,本月營收變動達50%以上
2024/97.1113.8188.6642.5941.5419.30.34受惠於全球AI及HPC客戶終端應用需求強勁持續拉貨,本月營收變動達50%以上
2024/86.255.2282.4335.4834.7916.490.39受惠於全球AI及HPC客戶終端應用需求強勁持續拉貨,本月營收變動達50%以上。
2024/75.9438.15124.4829.2327.6613.80.47受惠於全球AI及HPC客戶終端應用需求強勁持續拉貨,本月營收變動達50%以上。
2024/64.320.7813.1223.2915.0112.560.54-
2024/53.56-24.24-8.8518.9915.4412.190.56-
2024/44.719.5390.9415.4323.0111.750.58受惠於全球AI及HPC客戶終端應用需求強勁持續拉貨,本月營收變動達50%以上。
2024/33.9325.8450.0410.736.4310.730.57受惠AI、HPC應用及手機客戶市場急單需求,致本月營收變動達50%以上
2024/23.12-15.05-2.466.8-8.878.520.71-
2024/13.68113.83-13.693.68-13.697.850.77-
2023/121.72-29.77-63.9836.82-28.116.730.86受半導體產業景氣衰退影響,去年比較基期較高,致營收變動達50%以上
2023/112.45-4.41-63.2135.1-24.428.780.66受供應鏈及終端庫存去化時間拉長,且去年比較基期較高,致營收變動達50%以上。
2023/102.56-32.05-54.7432.65-17.949.760.59受供應鏈及終端庫存調節持續進行,且去年比較基期較高,致營收變動達50%以上。
2023/93.7710.05-39.630.09-11.839.840.52-
2023/83.4329.48-32.4526.32-5.619.870.52-
2023/72.65-30.37-37.5222.890.3410.350.5-
2023/63.8-2.68-32.0820.258.9710.170.59-
2023/53.9158.7243.2116.4526.678.990.67-
2023/42.46-6.079.412.5422.278.280.72-
2023/32.62-18.192.4210.0825.8910.080.69-
2023/23.2-24.8338.747.4636.9112.240.57-
2023/14.26-10.7635.564.2635.5615.690.44-
2022/124.77-28.2772.5351.2277.417.090.45訂單增加,營收增加。
2022/116.6617.5896.7246.4577.9118.560.41訂單增加,營收增加。
2022/105.66-9.3271.8539.7975.1216.980.45訂單增加,營收增加。
2022/96.2423.1154.6734.1375.6715.550.4訂單增加,營收增加。
2022/85.0719.7582.427.8964.2614.90.42訂單增加,營收增加
2022/74.24-24.3183.0522.8260.7112.560.5訂單增加,營收增加
2022/65.6105.21134.4518.5856.3610.570.44受惠於近期訂單增加及上海因疫情封控致使子公司磐時上海營收遞延至本月認列,兩主要因素所致
2022/52.7321.2425.1312.9836.737.530.62受大陸上海疫情防控措施,子公司磐時上海自3月底至5月份未能及時開立發票及立帳,相關營收延遲認列,預計不影響第二季整體營收
2022/42.25-12.0621.4710.2640.197.110.65受大陸上海疫情防控措施,子公司磐時電子自3月底至4月份未能及時開立發票及立帳,相關營收延遲認列,預計不影響第二季整體營收
2022/32.5610.8125.418.0146.538.010.45-
2022/22.31-26.5560.845.4559.18.220.44訂單增加,營收增加
2022/13.1413.5657.853.1457.859.290.39訂單增加,營收增加
2021/122.77-18.2259.5528.87-0.779.440.37訂單增加,營收增加
2021/113.382.7262.1426.11-4.599.130.38訂單增加,營收增加
2021/103.2934.3637.1122.72-10.18.530.41-
2021/92.45-11.8313.8219.43-15.067.550.41-
2021/82.7820.18-0.5516.98-18.077.480.42-
2021/72.31-3.06-30.2514.2-20.86.880.45-
2021/62.399.52-7.3611.88-18.656.420.53-
2021/52.1817.69-29.229.5-21.076.070.57-
2021/41.85-9.21-37.527.32-18.275.330.64-
2021/32.0442.13-25.675.47-8.745.470.62-
2021/21.43-27.923.913.435.575.160.66-
2021/11.9914.796.791.996.795.810.59-
2020/121.73-16.89-3.5429.12.586.220.67-
2020/112.09-13.13-13.4627.363.06.640.63-
2020/102.411.54-11.3125.284.647.350.57-
2020/92.15-22.973.3722.876.668.270.56-
2020/82.8-15.714.3920.727.018.690.53-
2020/73.3228.75-8.017.937.438.970.51-
2020/62.58-16.32-25.6514.6111.698.620.55-
2020/53.083.8930.8312.0325.158.790.54-
2020/42.968.0141.68.9523.317.090.67-
2020/32.7498.7163.575.9915.915.990.73訂單增加,營收增加
2020/21.38-25.9222.53.24-7.05.040.86-
2020/11.863.67-21.081.86-21.086.070.72-
2019/121.8-25.43-8.4428.3668.210.0N/A營業規模擴大,營收增加
2019/112.41-10.9755.826.5778.320.0N/A營業規模擴大,營收增加
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/13.682023/14.262022/13.142021/11.992020/11.86
2024/23.122023/23.22022/22.312021/21.432020/21.38
2024/33.932023/32.622022/32.562021/32.042020/32.74
2024/44.72023/42.462022/42.252021/41.852020/42.96
2024/53.562023/53.912022/52.732021/52.182020/53.08
2024/64.32023/63.82022/65.62021/62.392020/62.58
2024/75.942023/72.652022/74.242021/72.312020/73.32
2024/86.252023/83.432022/85.072021/82.782020/82.8
2024/97.112023/93.772022/96.242021/92.452020/92.15
2024/106.482023/102.562022/105.662021/103.292020/102.4
N/AN/A2023/112.452022/116.662021/113.382020/112.09
N/AN/A2023/121.722022/124.772021/122.772020/121.73
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 46.59%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
24Q3 (20)1.6242.1165.31
24Q2 (19)1.14-18.5750.0
24Q1 (18)1.442.86150.0
23Q4 (17)0.980.078.18
23Q3 (16)0.9828.95122.73
23Q2 (15)0.7635.7168.89
23Q1 (14)0.561.82107.41
22Q4 (13)0.5525.0120.0
22Q3 (12)0.44-2.224300.0
22Q2 (11)0.4566.674400.0
22Q1 (10)0.278.01250.0
21Q4 (9)0.252400.0733.33
21Q3 (8)0.010.00
21Q2 (7)0.01-50.0-80.0
21Q1 (6)0.02-33.330
20Q4 (5)0.030-40.0

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