玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/100.654.51-26.097.95-20.872.02N/A-
2024/90.63-15.77-36.667.3-20.372.10.7-
2024/80.741.57-24.626.67-18.42.140.69-
2024/70.739.63-39.425.93-17.552.360.63-
2024/60.67-30.53-35.95.2-13.132.590.58-
2024/50.96-0.35-0.414.53-8.322.820.54-
2024/40.968.450.763.57-10.242.360.64-
2024/30.8977.69-28.132.6-13.742.60.61-
2024/20.5-58.65-51.011.71-3.722.550.62因遇春節連續假期,客戶一月提前拉貨,故影響二月營收
2024/11.2143.5560.221.2160.222.940.54遇春節連續假期,提前拉貨
2023/120.84-4.26-11.5111.77-3.522.610.8-
2023/110.88-0.54-11.0710.93-2.842.760.76-
2023/100.89-10.4312.7710.05-2.052.860.73-
2023/90.990.234.989.16-3.283.180.72-
2023/80.99-18.3612.498.18-4.193.240.71-
2023/71.2115.9831.527.19-6.13.220.72-
2023/61.047.92-15.215.98-11.242.960.82-
2023/50.970.82-16.334.94-10.353.160.77-
2023/40.96-22.64-13.853.97-8.773.220.75-
2023/31.2421.121.333.02-7.023.020.79-
2023/21.0235.2432.841.78-12.082.730.88-
2023/10.76-20.72-39.670.76-39.672.70.89-
2022/120.95-3.79-41.1612.2-41.762.730.81-
2022/110.9926.13-40.0211.25-41.812.720.81-
2022/100.79-16.61-59.4210.26-41.982.60.85客户的需求减少,故影響營收下滑.
2022/90.947.4-50.759.48-39.972.741.05市場對整體需求疲軟,對營收影響顯著。
2022/80.88-4.5518.868.53-38.483.020.95-
2022/70.92-25.22-50.447.66-41.833.30.87市場對整體需求狀況顯示較弱,主產品的銷售均有降低。
2022/61.236.49-33.46.74-40.423.490.85-
2022/51.153.81-46.125.51-41.783.490.85-
2022/41.11-8.99-46.284.35-40.523.10.95-
2022/31.2258.77-36.973.24-38.323.240.96-
2022/20.77-38.58-43.052.02-39.113.640.85-
2022/11.25-22.67-36.411.25-36.414.520.69-
2021/121.62-1.92-10.3620.9630.25.210.66-
2021/111.65-14.65-1.9619.3435.335.50.62-
2021/101.941.1843.1417.6940.324.590.75-
2021/91.91159.2426.8215.7940.264.51.0-
2021/80.74-60.2-49.1213.8742.344.441.02-
2021/71.850.4835.6213.1658.685.840.77受惠二極體需求續旺,加上漲價效應,挹注營收。
2021/61.85-13.8434.911.3162.446.060.66終端市場需求強勁帶動二極體產業供不應求,故公司業績提升。
2021/52.143.4975.229.4669.176.150.65零組件產業訂單需求強勁,為營收帶來正向挹注。
2021/42.076.7758.187.3267.485.360.75整體二極體產業環境明顯回暖,直接反應在訂單的需求度上,故營收業績數字成長。
2021/31.9443.4549.045.2671.465.260.69市場需求持續強勁,故營收增幅較大。
2021/21.35-31.41116.043.3287.975.130.71訂單能見度高達半年以上,營收較去年同期顯著提升。
2021/11.978.9972.591.9772.595.460.67終端市場需求與拉貨力道強勁,營收明顯成長。
2020/121.817.259.0216.1-8.994.840.74-
2020/111.6824.613.7714.29-10.864.550.79-
2020/101.35-10.34-9.0312.6-12.514.310.83-
2020/91.513.99-4.0511.25-13.344.330.82-
2020/81.456.073.839.75-14.624.190.85-
2020/71.37-0.05-2.78.3-17.193.960.89-
2020/61.3711.91-8.946.96-19.113.90.97-
2020/51.22-6.56-24.955.59-21.263.830.99-
2020/41.310.6-13.64.37-20.163.231.17-
2020/31.3107.93-12.383.07-22.333.071.31-
2020/20.63-45.2-29.561.77-28.333.421.18-
2020/11.14-31.14-27.631.14-27.634.420.91-
2019/121.662.0916.3717.69-14.610.0N/A-
2019/111.629.228.3816.03-16.90.0N/A-
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/11.212023/10.762022/11.252021/11.972020/11.14
2024/20.52023/21.022022/20.772021/21.352020/20.63
2024/30.892023/31.242022/31.222021/31.942020/31.3
2024/40.962023/40.962022/41.112021/42.072020/41.31
2024/50.962023/50.972022/51.152021/52.142020/51.22
2024/60.672023/61.042022/61.232021/61.852020/61.37
2024/70.732023/71.212022/70.922021/71.852020/71.37
2024/80.742023/80.992022/80.882021/80.742020/81.45
2024/90.632023/90.992022/90.942021/91.912020/91.51
2024/100.652023/100.892022/100.792021/101.942020/101.35
N/AN/A2023/110.882022/110.992021/111.652020/111.68
N/AN/A2023/120.842022/120.952021/121.622020/121.81
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 0.87%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
24Q3 (20)0.07-12.575.0
24Q2 (19)0.08300.0300.0
24Q1 (18)0.02-50.0-60.0
23Q4 (17)0.040.033.33
23Q3 (16)0.04100.00.0
23Q2 (15)0.02-60.0-33.33
23Q1 (14)0.0566.670.0
22Q4 (13)0.03-25.0-50.0
22Q3 (12)0.0433.33-50.0
22Q2 (11)0.03-40.0-66.67
22Q1 (10)0.05-16.67-16.67
21Q4 (9)0.06-25.020.0
21Q3 (8)0.08-11.11-84.91
21Q2 (7)0.0950.0-82.0
21Q1 (6)0.0620.0100.0
20Q4 (5)0.05-90.57150.0
20Q3 (4)0.536.00.0
20Q2 (3)0.51566.670.0
20Q1 (2)0.0350.00.0
19Q4 (1)0.020.00.0

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