玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/100.3613.8516.62.31-34.10.97N/A-
2024/90.312.160.511.96-38.930.823.28-
2024/80.3152.1-24.631.64-43.160.693.92-
2024/70.211.67-49.991.34-46.190.574.69主係整體市場需求降緩導致本年度營收下降
2024/60.18-6.41-56.261.14-45.450.564.59主係整體市場需求降緩導致本年度營收下降
2024/50.192.81-52.070.96-42.80.534.86主係整體市場需求降緩導致本年度營收下降
2024/40.1925.39-53.340.77-39.870.465.53主係整體市場需求降緩導致本月營收下降
2024/30.1516.65-55.570.58-33.670.584.57主係整體市場需求降緩導致本月營收下降
2024/20.13-57.48-61.850.43-19.930.713.7主係因本月適逢春節假期工作天數較少所致
2024/10.35.8850.270.350.270.892.98係因為113年1月份出機較多高單價機台所致
2023/120.28-5.28-12.994.09-26.790.892.82-
2023/110.3-1.63-25.073.81-27.650.922.74-
2023/100.31-1.85-25.053.51-27.861.022.46-
2023/90.31-23.4-24.733.21-28.111.122.62-
2023/80.410.91-1.042.89-28.461.222.4-
2023/70.4-2.32-21.232.49-31.551.222.41-
2023/60.412.53-29.762.09-33.241.212.45-
2023/50.40.08-28.821.67-34.041.142.62-
2023/40.419.41-27.421.27-35.541.072.78-
2023/30.340.15-17.230.87-38.690.873.64主係整體市場需求降緩導致本年度營收下降
2023/20.3467.48-17.360.54-47.270.863.68主要係受疫情影響,需求減緩,產能減少
2023/10.2-38.69-67.170.2-67.170.933.42主要係受疫情影響,需求減緩,產能減少
2022/120.33-18.43-71.085.59-51.641.132.74主要係受疫情影響,需求減緩,產能減少
2022/110.4-1.6-64.05.27-49.541.222.55主要係受疫情影響,需求減緩,產能減少
2022/100.41-1.44-63.734.87-47.811.232.53主要係受疫情影響,需求減緩,產能減少
2022/90.410.7-63.194.46-45.631.332.34主要係受疫情影響,需求減緩,產能減少
2022/80.41-19.67-62.724.05-42.851.512.07主要係受疫情影響,需求減緩,產能減少
2022/70.51-12.9-53.233.64-39.191.661.88主要係受疫情影響,需求減緩,產能減少
2022/60.593.91-44.573.13-36.051.71.9-
2022/50.562.05-45.312.54-33.71.522.12-
2022/40.5536.18-40.381.97-29.421.362.37-
2022/30.410.0-50.311.42-23.981.422.15主要係受疫情影響,需求減緩,產能減少
2022/20.41-33.46-23.091.02-3.572.151.43-
2022/10.61-45.9916.00.6116.02.851.07-
2021/121.131.51121.1811.57117.363.370.83主係因自動化檢測設備需求增加所致
2021/111.11-0.86177.3210.44116.953.360.83主係因自動化檢測設備需求增加所致
2021/101.120.02171.849.33111.463.350.83主係因自動化檢測設備需求增加所致
2021/91.121.99159.528.2105.223.311.0主係因自動化檢測設備需求增加所致
2021/81.10.79166.67.0898.633.251.02主係因自動化檢測設備需求增加所致
2021/71.093.2279.025.9889.733.181.04主係因自動化檢測設備需求增加所致
2021/61.062.5172.614.8992.33.021.02主係因自動化檢測設備需求增加所致
2021/51.0311.2587.713.8398.552.781.11主係因自動化檢測設備需求增加所致
2021/40.9313.51103.892.8102.872.271.36主係因自動化檢測設備需求增加所致
2021/30.8254.78103.791.87102.371.871.45主係因自動化檢測設備需求增加所致
2021/20.530.35158.391.05101.291.561.73主係因自動化檢測設備需求增加所致
2021/10.532.9564.750.5364.751.441.88主係因自動化檢測設備需求增加所致
2020/120.5127.28350.465.3256.541.331.74主係因被動元件市場回溫,客戶積極擴產所致
2020/110.4-2.8296.194.8146.391.251.85主係因被動元件市場回溫,客戶積極擴產所致
2020/100.41-4.51101.234.4143.091.261.84主係因被動元件市場回溫,客戶積極擴產所致
2020/90.434.78114.194.038.941.461.47主係因被動元件市場回溫,客戶積極擴產所致
2020/80.41-32.3190.383.5633.261.641.31主係因被動元件市場回溫,客戶積極擴產所致
2020/70.61-0.47201.743.1528.221.771.21主係因被動元件市場回溫,客戶積極擴產所致
2020/60.6111.48121.842.5412.671.621.48主係因被動元件市場回溫,客戶積極擴產所致
2020/50.5520.85126.561.93-2.551.411.7主係因被動元件市場回溫,客戶積極擴產所致
2020/40.4513.46196.351.38-20.591.062.25主係因被動元件市場回溫,客戶積極擴產所致
2020/30.496.25-32.660.92-41.620.922.14-
2020/20.2-36.01-61.070.52-47.010.643.11主要因整體終端需求疲弱,導致客戶延遲拉貨所致
2020/10.32181.51-31.080.32-31.080.643.11-
2019/120.11-44.56-86.623.4-72.080.0N/A主要因整體終端需求疲弱,導致客戶延遲拉貨所致
2019/110.2-0.32-80.223.29-70.990.0N/A主要因整體終端需求疲弱,導致客戶延遲拉貨所致
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/10.32023/10.22022/10.612021/10.532020/10.32
2024/20.132023/20.342022/20.412021/20.532020/20.2
2024/30.152023/30.342022/30.412021/30.822020/30.4
2024/40.192023/40.42022/40.552021/40.932020/40.45
2024/50.192023/50.42022/50.562021/51.032020/50.55
2024/60.182023/60.412022/60.592021/61.062020/60.61
2024/70.22023/70.42022/70.512021/71.092020/70.61
2024/80.312023/80.412022/80.412021/81.12020/80.41
2024/90.312023/90.312022/90.412021/91.122020/90.43
2024/100.362023/100.312022/100.412021/101.122020/100.41
N/AN/A2023/110.32022/110.42021/111.112020/110.4
N/AN/A2023/120.282022/120.332021/121.132020/120.51
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 6.49%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
24Q3 (20)0.2414.29-11.11
24Q2 (19)0.2140.0-53.33
24Q1 (18)0.1550.0-63.41
23Q4 (17)0.1-62.96-44.44
23Q3 (16)0.27-40.012.5
23Q2 (15)0.459.7621.62
23Q1 (14)0.41127.78-34.92
22Q4 (13)0.18-25.0-50.0
22Q3 (12)0.24-35.14-57.14
22Q2 (11)0.37-41.27-61.46
22Q1 (10)0.6375.043.18
21Q4 (9)0.36-35.71-21.74
21Q3 (8)0.56-41.6751.35
21Q2 (7)0.96118.18108.7
21Q1 (6)0.44-4.3576.0
20Q4 (5)0.4624.3270.37
20Q3 (4)0.37-19.570.0
20Q2 (3)0.4684.00.0
20Q1 (2)0.25-7.410.0
19Q4 (1)0.270.00.0

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