玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/110.64-13.05-37.948.24-0.572.28N/A-
2024/100.73-20.1627.37.614.72.66N/A-
2024/90.92-9.0612.26.872.752.660.9-
2024/81.0138.0554.115.961.442.430.99產品訂單增加,且步入旺季,出貨驗收逐步增加。
2024/70.736.2412.374.95-5.152.011.2-
2024/60.6916.42-10.854.22-7.651.971.1-
2024/50.59-14.65-24.833.53-7.02.240.96-
2024/40.69-27.960.272.94-2.352.031.06-
2024/30.96152.8312.122.25-3.132.250.88-
2024/20.38-58.21-47.31.29-12.052.450.8-
2024/10.91-21.7122.060.9122.063.10.64-
2023/121.1613.248.639.45-21.562.760.68-
2023/111.0378.35-0.538.29-24.52.420.78-
2023/100.57-29.63-4.197.26-26.982.050.92-
2023/90.8224.89-13.836.69-28.452.121.03-
2023/80.650.67-13.535.87-30.12.071.05-
2023/70.65-15.72-50.125.22-31.742.210.99客戶庫存去化調整,影響本期營收
2023/60.77-1.84-41.354.57-27.962.250.89-
2023/50.7913.87-38.643.8-24.462.330.85-
2023/40.69-19.45-38.833.01-19.612.270.88-
2023/30.8618.83-22.992.32-11.342.321.12-
2023/20.72-3.21-1.591.47-2.732.531.02-
2023/10.74-30.32-3.810.74-3.812.840.91-
2022/121.073.6710.7812.05-4.832.71.17-
2022/111.0371.842.6610.98-6.122.581.23-
2022/100.6-36.71-35.769.95-9.332.31.37-
2022/90.9525.3227.999.35-6.873.011.24-
2022/80.76-41.92-36.128.4-9.653.371.1-
2022/71.3-0.9-3.837.64-5.793.90.95-
2022/61.312.695.386.34-6.183.721.06-
2022/51.2813.5346.485.03-8.83.521.12-
2022/41.131.386.993.75-19.222.971.33-
2022/31.1151.85-27.852.62-26.922.621.68-
2022/20.73-5.39-21.611.51-26.232.471.78-
2022/10.77-19.75-30.120.77-30.122.461.78-
2021/120.9633.51-29.8212.66-25.062.621.71-
2021/110.72-22.64-39.4311.7-24.642.41.87-
2021/100.9326.1-31.9810.97-23.412.861.57-
2021/90.74-37.46-45.0810.04-22.53.281.37-
2021/81.18-12.57-20.079.3-19.883.791.19-
2021/71.358.59-15.268.11-19.853.481.29-
2021/61.2542.75-33.076.76-20.713.181.31-
2021/50.87-17.07-39.485.51-17.263.471.2-
2021/41.05-31.63-16.724.64-11.13.531.18-
2021/31.5464.99-0.313.58-9.33.580.98-
2021/20.93-15.67-33.772.04-15.083.421.03-
2021/11.11-19.411.441.1111.443.680.96-
2020/121.3715.22-26.3116.920.943.940.79-
2020/111.19-13.12-0.3915.5228.223.920.79-
2020/101.371.8215.3114.3331.364.20.74-
2020/91.35-8.98-4.1812.9633.334.430.59-
2020/81.48-7.31-10.1211.6139.694.950.53-
2020/71.6-14.2247.5510.1252.024.910.54訂單增加,營收成長
2020/61.8629.0744.148.5352.894.570.56訂單增加,營收成長
2020/51.4414.1159.676.6655.534.260.6訂單增加,營收成長
2020/41.27-18.1675.045.2254.434.220.6客戶產品發表訂單增加
2020/31.559.616.373.9548.813.950.73-
2020/21.4141.91138.732.4181.314.270.68訂單增加,營收成長
2020/10.99-46.735.170.9935.170.0N/A-
2019/121.8755.74148.5713.9716.890.0N/A訂單增加,營收成長
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/10.912023/10.742022/10.772021/11.112020/10.99
2024/20.382023/20.722022/20.732021/20.932020/21.41
2024/30.962023/30.862022/31.112021/31.542020/31.55
2024/40.692023/40.692022/41.132021/41.052020/41.27
2024/50.592023/50.792022/51.282021/50.872020/51.44
2024/60.692023/60.772022/61.312021/61.252020/61.86
2024/70.732023/70.652022/71.32021/71.352020/71.6
2024/81.012023/80.652022/80.762021/81.182020/81.48
2024/90.922023/90.822022/90.952021/90.742020/91.35
2024/100.732023/100.572022/100.62021/100.932020/101.37
2024/110.642023/111.032022/111.032021/110.722020/111.19
N/AN/A2023/121.162022/121.072021/120.962020/121.37
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 5.99%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
24Q3 (20)0.5845.045.0
24Q2 (19)0.4-2.44-11.11
24Q1 (18)0.41-10.87-35.94
23Q4 (17)0.4615.0-33.33
23Q3 (16)0.4-11.11-61.9
23Q2 (15)0.45-29.69-62.81
23Q1 (14)0.64-7.25-45.3
22Q4 (13)0.69-34.29-30.3
22Q3 (12)1.05-13.227.14
22Q2 (11)1.213.4215.24
22Q1 (10)1.1718.1820.62
21Q4 (9)0.991.02-9.17
21Q3 (8)0.98-6.6730.67
21Q2 (7)1.058.2515.38
21Q1 (6)0.97-11.01-11.82
20Q4 (5)1.0945.3334.57
20Q3 (4)0.75-17.580.0
20Q2 (3)0.91-17.270.0
20Q1 (2)1.135.80.0
19Q4 (1)0.810.00.0

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