玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/10353.812.5486.782803.0938.561020.78N/A主要係客戶需求強勁
2024/9345.057.18119.672449.2733.58978.180.72主要係客戶需求強勁
2024/8321.923.4465.52104.2325.51940.720.75主要係客戶需求強勁
2024/7311.211.1876.231782.3120.26866.390.81主要係客戶需求強勁
2024/6307.5824.2236.051471.0912.69774.810.9-
2024/5247.612.7359.541163.517.8732.370.95主要係客戶需求強勁
2024/4219.63-17.1620.79915.91-0.88728.040.96-
2024/3265.148.99-23.84696.28-6.19696.280.7-
2024/2243.2629.475.79431.149.39633.360.77-
2024/1187.88-7.0914.43187.8814.43583.950.83-
2023/12202.224.31-33.732419.01-17.4585.50.52-
2023/11193.852.33-42.052216.79-15.5540.350.56-
2023/10189.4220.59-19.282022.94-11.62541.00.56-
2023/9157.07-19.24-50.11833.51-10.75528.170.58主要係去年基期較高所致
2023/8194.5110.14-26.231676.44-3.62597.170.51-
2023/7176.59-21.88-19.071481.930.41557.850.55-
2023/6226.0745.67-35.231305.343.79563.080.53-
2023/5155.19-14.64-23.321079.2718.78685.150.43-
2023/4181.82-47.77-8.69924.0830.85759.910.39-
2023/3348.1451.443.37742.2646.38742.260.46-
2023/2229.9540.0667.61394.1249.15699.280.49主要係客戶需求強勁
2023/1164.17-46.229.21164.1729.21803.890.43-
2022/12305.16-8.7841.12928.7652.04874.390.41主要係客戶需求強勁
2022/11334.5642.5662.82623.653.42884.070.41主要係客戶需求強勁
2022/10234.68-25.4559.612289.0452.14813.190.44主要係客戶需求強勁
2022/9314.8319.3987.992054.3751.33796.740.53主要係客戶需求強勁
2022/8263.6820.8283.721739.5346.17830.950.51主要係客戶需求強勁
2022/7218.23-37.4754.051475.8541.02769.670.55主要係客戶需求強勁
2022/6349.0472.4492.111257.6338.99750.570.61主要係客戶需求強勁所致
2022/5202.41.6423.33908.5925.64644.350.71-
2022/4199.13-17.9919.83706.1826.31579.130.79-
2022/3242.8176.9858.27507.0529.06507.051.0主要係客戶需求強勁所致。
2022/2137.197.9818.05264.2410.34480.511.06-
2022/1127.05-41.253.08127.053.08548.810.93-
2021/12216.275.2440.621926.263.04568.790.8-
2021/11205.539.7618.731709.99-0.32519.980.87-
2021/10147.02-12.2-25.841504.49-2.45458.010.99-
2021/9167.4616.68-0.391357.470.99452.640.87-
2021/8143.521.31-2.911190.011.19466.860.84-
2021/7141.65-22.03-9.251046.491.78487.450.81-
2021/6181.6810.7-18.89904.833.75511.970.51-
2021/5164.12-1.23-0.3723.1511.58483.690.53-
2021/4166.178.3125.8559.0715.64435.790.59-
2021/3153.4132.041.28392.8711.8392.870.71-
2021/2116.21-5.7-1.99239.46-1.37393.250.71-
2021/1123.25-19.85-0.78123.25-0.78450.110.62-
2020/12153.79-11.14-16.271869.3914.26525.140.38-
2020/11173.07-12.7110.251715.618.12539.490.37-
2020/10198.2817.9228.021542.5319.08514.240.39-
2020/9168.1413.7351.871344.2517.86472.060.67隨雲端產業蓬勃發展,帶動資料中心需求提升,本公司對大型資料中心客戶出貨量成長,故營收增加。
2020/8147.83-5.2934.291176.1114.21527.930.6-
2020/7156.09-30.3138.521028.2911.8544.720.58-
2020/6224.0136.0836.01872.198.07520.710.51-
2020/5164.6224.6321.88648.180.91405.390.66-
2020/4132.0821.527.48483.57-4.66359.350.74-
2020/3108.69-8.33-9.71351.48-8.55351.480.76-
2020/2118.58-4.536.29242.79-8.02426.480.62-
2020/1124.22-32.37-18.5124.22-18.5464.880.57-
2019/12183.6917.017.71637.96-9.530.0N/A-
2019/11156.981.3521.91454.27-11.330.0N/A-
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/1187.882023/1164.172022/1127.052021/1123.252020/1124.22
2024/2243.262023/2229.952022/2137.192021/2116.212020/2118.58
2024/3265.142023/3348.142022/3242.812021/3153.412020/3108.69
2024/4219.632023/4181.822022/4199.132021/4166.172020/4132.08
2024/5247.62023/5155.192022/5202.42021/5164.122020/5164.62
2024/6307.582023/6226.072022/6349.042021/6181.682020/6224.01
2024/7311.212023/7176.592022/7218.232021/7141.652020/7156.09
2024/8321.922023/8194.512022/8263.682021/8143.522020/8147.83
2024/9345.052023/9157.072022/9314.832021/9167.462020/9168.14
2024/10353.812023/10189.422022/10234.682021/10147.022020/10198.28
N/AN/A2023/11193.852022/11334.562021/11205.52020/11173.07
N/AN/A2023/12202.222022/12305.162021/12216.272020/12153.79
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 323.77%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
24Q3 (20)60.17-0.0711.36
24Q2 (19)60.2111.0764.91
24Q1 (18)54.21-8.8939.0
23Q4 (17)59.510.1212.33
23Q3 (16)54.0347.998.8
23Q2 (15)36.51-6.385.4
23Q1 (14)39.0-26.379.58
22Q4 (13)52.976.6757.6
22Q3 (12)49.6643.3650.39
22Q2 (11)34.64-2.6722.4
22Q1 (10)35.595.8936.05
21Q4 (9)33.611.7946.32
21Q3 (8)33.0216.6894.69
21Q2 (7)28.38.18125.14
21Q1 (6)26.1613.89144.71
20Q4 (5)22.9735.44166.47
20Q3 (4)16.9634.920.0
20Q2 (3)12.5717.590.0
20Q1 (2)10.6924.010.0
19Q4 (1)8.620.00.0

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