玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/102.734.24-2.1328.5928.548.18N/A-
2024/92.62-7.17-7.825.8532.957.850.59-
2024/82.8317.54.6823.2339.938.250.56-
2024/72.4-20.236.320.446.779.040.51-
2024/63.01-16.7127.1718.054.649.950.43活動檔期帶動營收增加
2024/53.629.0666.114.9861.6610.130.42活動檔期帶動營收增加
2024/43.323.9765.5611.3660.38.650.49活動檔期帶動營收增加
2024/33.1949.0236.138.0558.238.050.45活動檔期帶動營收增加
2024/22.14-20.9847.514.8577.157.250.5活動檔期帶動營收增加
2024/12.7112.96110.582.71110.5810.210.36活動檔期帶動營收增加
2023/122.4-52.9561.3329.7474.1410.290.31活動檔期帶動營收增加
2023/115.182.675.5127.3475.3710.740.3活動檔期帶動營收增加
2023/102.79-1.7999.7422.2475.338.340.39活動檔期帶動營收增加
2023/92.845.39102.9119.4472.317.810.42活動檔期帶動營收增加
2023/82.719.3187.2716.667.977.330.45活動檔期帶動營收增加
2023/72.26-4.5797.2313.964.676.810.48活動檔期帶動營收增加
2023/62.378.7883.7311.6459.556.550.28活動檔期帶動營收增加
2023/52.188.7144.779.2754.366.530.28活動檔期帶動營收增加
2023/42.0-14.5155.47.0957.575.80.31活動檔期帶動營收增加
2023/32.3461.4885.875.0858.445.080.26活動檔期帶動營收增加
2023/21.4512.839.412.7440.664.230.31-
2023/11.29-13.4542.11.2942.15.680.23-
2022/121.49-48.8256.1717.0825.975.790.21活動檔期使營收差異達50%
2022/112.91107.8162.6115.5923.685.710.21雙十一活動檔期帶動營收增加
2022/101.4-0.2314.612.6817.254.240.28-
2022/91.4-2.7214.1211.2817.593.990.25-
2022/81.4425.6656.939.8818.13.880.26新品帶動業績成長
2022/71.15-11.116.038.4413.313.940.26-
2022/61.29-14.2812.417.2912.94.090.21-
2022/51.5116.6936.46.013.04.060.21-
2022/41.292.2426.114.56.873.590.24-
2022/31.2621.11-2.623.210.693.210.28-
2022/21.0414.985.951.952.972.90.31-
2022/10.91-4.89-0.240.91-0.243.650.24-
2021/120.95-46.716.5913.562.03.960.24-
2021/111.7946.45-10.7212.61.674.240.23-
2021/101.22-0.6512.1410.824.063.370.29-
2021/91.2333.754.829.63.113.140.31-
2021/80.92-7.08-18.688.372.873.050.32-
2021/70.99-13.87-13.197.456.343.240.3-
2021/61.154.0-5.026.4610.143.270.25-
2021/51.17.892.985.3114.073.420.24-
2021/41.02-21.050.714.2117.393.30.25-
2021/31.331.7952.473.1923.983.190.2738女王節檔期帶動營收增加
2021/20.988.2529.421.899.912.780.31-
2021/10.911.62-5.510.91-5.513.80.22-
2020/120.89-55.3616.7113.2941.243.980.21-
2020/112.083.96102.2912.443.414.260.2轉投資公司併入合併報表及活動檔期帶動營收增加
2020/101.09-7.1327.5710.3935.83.390.25-
2020/91.173.7643.219.3136.833.440.27-
2020/81.13-0.8143.218.1335.963.480.27-
2020/71.14-5.7756.287.034.863.420.27轉投資公司併入合併報表及新品熱賣帶動營收增加
2020/61.2112.77104.95.8731.363.30.2轉投資公司併入合併報表及新品熱賣帶動營收增加
2020/51.075.5126.274.6620.172.940.22-
2020/41.0219.5135.083.5918.462.620.25-
2020/30.8511.874.682.5712.972.570.24-
2020/20.76-20.9648.91.7217.562.490.25-
2020/10.9625.520.80.960.82.720.23-
2019/120.77-22.642.529.41-4.630.0N/A-
2019/110.9916.010.558.64-5.210.0N/A-
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/12.712023/11.292022/10.912021/10.912020/10.96
2024/22.142023/21.452022/21.042021/20.982020/20.76
2024/33.192023/32.342022/31.262021/31.32020/30.85
2024/43.322023/42.02022/41.292021/41.022020/41.02
2024/53.622023/52.182022/51.512021/51.12020/51.07
2024/63.012023/62.372022/61.292021/61.152020/61.21
2024/72.42023/72.262022/71.152021/70.992020/71.14
2024/82.832023/82.72022/81.442021/80.922020/81.13
2024/92.622023/92.842022/91.42021/91.232020/91.17
2024/102.732023/102.792022/101.42021/101.222020/101.09
N/AN/A2023/115.12022/112.912021/111.792020/112.0
N/AN/A2023/122.42022/121.492021/120.952020/120.89
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 2.67%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
24Q3 (20)0.0814.290.0
24Q2 (19)0.070.016.67
24Q1 (18)0.07-22.2240.0
23Q4 (17)0.0912.580.0
23Q3 (16)0.0833.3333.33
23Q2 (15)0.0620.050.0
23Q1 (14)0.050.025.0
22Q4 (13)0.05-16.67-28.57
22Q3 (12)0.0650.020.0
22Q2 (11)0.040.0-33.33
22Q1 (10)0.04-42.860.0
21Q4 (9)0.0740.075.0
21Q3 (8)0.05-16.6766.67
21Q2 (7)0.0650.0200.0
21Q1 (6)0.040.0100.0
20Q4 (5)0.0433.3333.33
20Q3 (4)0.0350.00.0
20Q2 (3)0.020.00.0
20Q1 (2)0.02-33.330.0
19Q4 (1)0.030.00.0

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