玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/101.5343.4359.9312.8114.423.95N/A驗收台數較多
2024/91.07-20.91-24.2311.2710.163.643.53-
2024/81.3510.5368.6410.2115.663.83.38本月驗收台數較多
2024/71.22-0.14-9.248.8510.373.583.59-
2024/61.228.017.047.6314.333.953.2-
2024/51.13-28.85-3.416.4113.834.362.9-
2024/41.59-2.353.915.2818.374.322.93驗收台數較多
2024/31.6348.9321.843.687.623.683.47-
2024/21.0914.42-19.472.05-1.52.864.46-
2024/10.9618.1432.250.9632.252.874.45-
2023/120.81-26.55-11.8913.1-9.972.874.96-
2023/111.115.07-11.7112.29-9.843.474.1-
2023/100.96-32.05-20.1511.19-9.653.174.49-
2023/91.4176.0239.9210.23-8.533.564.31-
2023/80.8-40.51-36.18.82-13.323.194.81-
2023/71.3528.77-23.948.02-10.133.574.3-
2023/61.05-10.87-33.176.68-6.713.254.92-
2023/51.1713.376.375.630.693.554.51-
2023/41.03-22.662.434.46-0.73.734.29-
2023/31.34-1.5730.443.42-1.613.424.76-
2023/21.3687.9311.362.08-15.023.05.42-
2023/10.72-21.29-41.210.72-41.212.895.63-
2022/120.92-26.4-22.4214.5616.383.375.11-
2022/111.254.0863.313.6420.453.464.98本月驗收台數較多
2022/101.219.06128.5112.3917.343.464.97本月驗收結案較多
2022/91.01-19.6-2.8311.1911.524.034.58-
2022/81.25-29.1943.9310.1813.184.594.02-
2022/71.7713.1339.948.939.884.444.16-
2022/61.5741.88-29.067.164.343.684.77-
2022/51.19.17-45.525.5920.183.145.58-
2022/41.01-1.5189.654.4970.823.265.38驗收台數較多
2022/31.03-15.9759.083.4866.033.484.14驗收台數較多
2022/21.22-0.7971.012.4569.123.643.96驗收台數較多
2022/11.233.8667.281.2367.283.184.53驗收台數較多
2021/121.1854.9119.5612.5129.02.474.65-
2021/110.7645.64-4.7311.3230.072.334.95-
2021/100.53-49.36-49.5810.5633.612.434.73-
2021/91.0419.07-3.2210.0346.243.172.35-
2021/80.87-31.1576.638.9955.414.341.72本月驗收結案較多
2021/71.27-42.65127.78.1253.435.51.36本月驗收結案較多
2021/62.218.97150.296.8644.724.761.22本月驗收結案較多
2021/52.02280.0733.514.6520.63.21.81-
2021/40.53-17.3914.222.6312.231.893.07-
2021/30.64-9.67-36.642.0911.732.093.02-
2021/20.71-2.95401.051.4569.232.442.59本月及累計驗收結案較多
2021/10.74-25.763.020.743.022.532.5-
2020/120.9923.4259.069.6924.442.842.02本月驗收結案較多
2020/110.8-22.92-43.258.721.432.921.96-
2020/101.04-2.814184.97.937.342.612.2本月驗收結案較多
2020/91.07117.3524.736.8619.742.122.64-
2020/80.49-11.25-59.935.7918.861.932.9本月驗收結案較少
2020/70.56-36.96311.775.2945.522.951.89本月驗收結案較多
2020/60.88-41.87-14.554.7435.262.861.79-
2020/51.52225.17515.283.8656.063.01.71本月驗收結案較多
2020/40.47-54.18-27.632.345.21.633.16-
2020/31.02614.351429.171.8718.591.872.87本月驗收結案較多
2020/20.14-80.04-80.160.86-43.421.483.63本月驗收結案較少
2020/10.7114.62-10.240.71-10.242.751.95-
2019/120.62-55.97-69.087.7924.280.0N/A本月驗收結案較少
2019/111.425720.692230.07.1768.510.0N/A本年累計驗收結案較多
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/10.962023/10.722022/11.232021/10.742020/10.71
2024/21.092023/21.362022/21.222021/20.712020/20.14
2024/31.632023/31.342022/31.032021/30.642020/31.02
2024/41.592023/41.032022/41.012021/40.532020/40.47
2024/51.132023/51.172022/51.12021/52.022020/51.52
2024/61.222023/61.052022/61.572021/62.212020/60.88
2024/71.222023/71.352022/71.772021/71.272020/70.56
2024/81.352023/80.82022/81.252021/80.872020/80.49
2024/91.072023/91.412022/91.012021/91.042020/91.07
2024/101.532023/100.962022/101.22021/100.532020/101.04
N/AN/A2023/111.12022/111.252021/110.762020/110.8
N/AN/A2023/120.812022/120.922021/121.182020/120.99
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 411.77%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
24Q3 (20)11.07-8.66-23.6
24Q2 (19)12.121.76-19.31
24Q1 (18)11.91-9.7-26.25
23Q4 (17)13.19-8.97-19.18
23Q3 (16)14.49-3.53-15.41
23Q2 (15)15.02-7.0-2.47
23Q1 (14)16.15-1.0412.94
22Q4 (13)16.32-4.739.09
22Q3 (12)17.1311.2320.21
22Q2 (11)15.47.694.19
22Q1 (10)14.3-4.4166.47
21Q4 (9)14.964.98118.71
21Q3 (8)14.25-3.59121.27
21Q2 (7)14.7872.06168.24
21Q1 (6)8.5925.5884.33
20Q4 (5)6.846.2133.86
20Q3 (4)6.4416.880.0
20Q2 (3)5.5118.240.0
20Q1 (2)4.66-8.810.0
19Q4 (1)5.110.00.0

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