玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/104.4820.71460.8535.63348.4313.4N/A新市場出貨增加所致
2024/93.71-28.7314.9231.15335.8614.480.63新市場出貨增加所致
2024/85.21-6.46432.0327.44338.8616.320.56新市場出貨增加所致
2024/75.570.32507.4122.23321.5715.930.57新市場出貨增加所致
2024/65.5515.11366.9816.66282.4813.830.91新市場出貨增加所致
2024/54.8238.99666.6411.11250.89.421.34新市場出貨增加所致
2024/43.47205.32497.36.3147.875.472.31新市場出貨增加所致
2024/31.1430.5840.022.8344.342.834.13-
2024/20.875.6629.561.6947.42.035.75-
2024/10.82141.4572.480.8272.481.766.66主係配合客戶的時程出貨
2023/120.34-42.46-79.488.88-53.71.733.24主係歐美客戶尚在庫存去化調整,需求減少所致
2023/110.59-25.84-62.838.54-51.252.292.45主係歐美客戶尚在庫存去化調整,需求減少所致
2023/100.8-10.69-48.767.94-50.092.672.1主係歐美客戶尚在庫存去化調整,需求減少所致
2023/90.89-8.58-67.677.15-50.232.791.31主係歐美客戶尚在庫存去化調整,需求減少所致
2023/80.986.78-39.196.25-46.073.081.18-
2023/70.92-22.86-19.295.27-47.182.731.34-
2023/61.1988.98-18.464.36-50.762.41.42主係缺料的影響及歐美客戶尚在庫存去化調整,需求減少所致
2023/50.638.29-53.073.17-57.132.021.68主係缺料的影響及歐美客戶尚在庫存去化調整,需求減少所致
2023/40.58-28.42-55.582.54-58.032.061.65主係缺料的影響及歐美客戶尚在庫存去化調整,需求減少所致
2023/30.8120.82-46.651.96-58.71.961.81主係缺料的影響及歐美客戶尚在庫存去化調整,需求減少所致
2023/20.6740.66-53.631.15-64.382.811.26歐美客戶尚在庫存去化調整,需求減少所致
2023/10.48-71.27-73.140.48-73.143.730.95受到農曆春節工作天數減少,影響原物料進貨時程及歐美客戶尚在庫存去化調整,需求減少所致
2022/121.664.19-16.1319.1815.574.810.8-
2022/111.592.23-15.0217.5119.875.920.65-
2022/101.56-43.6630.1415.9225.025.940.65-
2022/92.7771.9954.8614.3624.485.511.03原部分預計於8月到貨之船班,受船期影響延遲至本月到客戶倉認列營收。
2022/81.6141.7245.5211.5918.914.21.35-
2022/71.14-22.067.759.9815.513.931.44-
2022/61.468.76-7.028.8516.594.11.45-
2022/51.342.4911.827.3922.734.171.43-
2022/41.31-14.01-3.46.0525.454.271.39-
2022/31.525.038.54.7436.694.741.14-
2022/21.45-18.5162.443.2235.865.21.04主係配合客戶的時程出貨
2022/11.78-10.319.871.7819.875.630.96-
2021/121.985.5611.4816.59-36.615.051.35-
2021/111.8856.5937.3214.61-40.114.861.4-
2021/101.2-32.96-35.2312.73-44.714.091.66-
2021/91.7961.62-27.9711.54-45.533.951.83-
2021/81.114.93-54.169.75-47.873.731.93主要係受半導體供需失衡,本公司進貨不及,及船運延遲銷貨收入延後認列的影響。
2021/71.05-32.75-60.748.64-46.933.821.89主要係受半導體供需失衡,本公司進貨不及影響。
2021/61.5730.81-40.27.59-44.214.121.1-
2021/51.2-11.45-51.696.02-45.173.651.24主要係受半導體供需失衡,交期延長的影響
2021/41.3523.27-36.624.82-43.263.341.35-
2021/31.123.15-49.363.47-45.493.471.24-
2021/20.89-39.86-55.492.37-43.54.151.03因2021年2月工作天數減少及缺料的影響
2021/11.48-16.58-32.571.48-32.574.620.93-
2020/121.7830.03-27.4926.176.934.990.72-
2020/111.37-26.14-38.6224.410.765.70.63-
2020/101.85-25.452.2723.0316.316.740.53-
2020/92.482.8630.321.1817.727.580.36-
2020/82.41-10.1358.9618.716.237.720.36依客戶需求出貨
2020/72.682.4260.516.2911.787.790.35依客戶需求出貨
2020/62.625.6849.4313.65.467.240.45-
2020/52.4816.1437.5410.98-1.456.780.48-
2020/42.14-1.4927.898.5-8.986.310.52-
2020/32.178.25-17.86.37-17.06.370.54-
2020/22.0-8.97.864.2-16.586.650.52-
2020/12.2-10.3-30.862.2-30.866.870.5-
2019/122.4510.08-18.3824.48-32.670.0N/A-
2019/112.2323.06-32.8322.03-33.960.0N/A-
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/10.822023/10.482022/11.782021/11.482020/12.2
2024/20.872023/20.672022/21.452021/20.892020/22.0
2024/31.142023/30.812022/31.522021/31.12020/32.17
2024/43.472023/40.582022/41.312021/41.352020/42.14
2024/54.822023/50.632022/51.342021/51.22020/52.48
2024/65.552023/61.192022/61.462021/61.572020/62.62
2024/75.572023/70.922022/71.142021/71.052020/72.68
2024/85.212023/80.982022/81.612021/81.112020/82.41
2024/93.712023/90.892022/92.772021/91.792020/92.48
2024/104.482023/100.82022/101.562021/101.22020/101.85
N/AN/A2023/110.592022/111.592021/111.882020/111.37
N/AN/A2023/120.342022/121.662021/121.982020/121.78
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 0.85%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
24Q3 (20)0.05-28.5725.0
24Q2 (19)0.07-41.67-12.5
24Q1 (18)0.12140.0300.0
23Q4 (17)0.0525.025.0
23Q3 (16)0.04-50.0-20.0
23Q2 (15)0.08166.67-57.89
23Q1 (14)0.03-25.0-50.0
22Q4 (13)0.04-20.0300.0
22Q3 (12)0.05-73.68-64.29
22Q2 (11)0.19216.67-20.83
22Q1 (10)0.06500.0-75.0
21Q4 (9)0.01-92.86-93.33
21Q3 (8)0.14-41.67-6.67
21Q2 (7)0.240.026.32
21Q1 (6)0.2460.0166.67
20Q4 (5)0.150.0400.0
20Q3 (4)0.15-21.050.0
20Q2 (3)0.19111.110.0
20Q1 (2)0.09200.00.0
19Q4 (1)0.030.00.0

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