玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/1010.46-28.59-6.97116.9853.0738.15N/A終端客戶所需產品大量出貨
2024/914.6512.3961.82106.5263.4342.720.41終端客戶所需產品大量出貨
2024/813.04-13.2776.1291.8763.6941.320.43終端客戶所需產品大量出貨
2024/715.0313.38111.1178.8461.840.760.43終端客戶所需產品大量出貨
2024/613.266.2360.263.8153.3636.070.51終端客戶所需產品大量出貨
2024/512.4820.6536.4350.5551.6633.460.55終端客戶所需產品大量出貨
2024/410.34-2.8633.9738.0757.4226.950.68終端客戶所需產品大量出貨
2024/310.6578.6954.4127.7368.4127.730.6終端客戶所需產品大量出貨
2024/25.96-46.4611.3317.0978.535.190.47終端客戶所需產品大量出貨
2024/111.13-38.54163.6811.13163.6847.180.35終端客戶所需產品大量出貨
2023/1218.110.9366.08112.476.5347.290.39終端客戶所需產品大量出貨
2023/1117.9459.53129.8594.36-0.3238.240.48終端客戶所需產品大量出貨
2023/1011.2524.242.9476.42-12.0227.70.67-
2023/99.0522.33-7.9865.18-17.4923.570.95-
2023/87.43.95-27.7956.12-18.8522.790.98-
2023/77.12-13.95-30.2548.72-17.2924.540.91-
2023/68.27-9.53-37.0541.6-14.5725.140.84-
2023/59.1518.48-3.4333.33-6.2723.760.89-
2023/47.7211.9448.3324.18-7.319.961.06-
2023/36.8928.84-15.2816.47-21.1616.471.39-
2023/25.3526.79-0.79.57-24.9120.471.11-
2023/14.22-61.29-42.644.22-42.6422.930.99-
2022/1210.939.6816.86105.5812.0426.570.9-
2022/117.81-0.78-4.8994.6711.5125.510.94-
2022/107.87-20.04-9.1586.8713.2627.960.86-
2022/99.84-4.05.1679.016.1230.31.0-
2022/810.250.4211.2169.1617.8633.60.9-
2022/710.21-22.3429.3758.9119.132.820.92-
2022/613.1438.7756.0348.7117.1627.820.97客戶需求成長與第二季停工導致之訂單遞延,營收變動達50%以上。
2022/59.4782.0128.8235.567.2822.811.19-
2022/45.2-36.06-31.5926.091.1418.731.44-
2022/38.1451.011.0920.8914.8320.891.4-
2022/25.39-26.7523.3812.7525.7422.081.32-
2022/17.36-21.1227.527.3627.5224.891.17-
2021/129.3313.6634.3194.2324.8926.20.92-
2021/118.21-5.2326.5684.923.9426.220.91-
2021/108.66-7.4456.9376.6923.6627.230.88受惠於雲端趨勢增長快速,公司不斷開發新品以滿足客戶需求,訂單能見度高,故營收增長迅速。
2021/99.361.5230.8768.0320.4226.460.77-
2021/89.2216.8237.9758.6818.925.530.8-
2021/77.89-6.347.9749.4615.9223.670.86-
2021/68.4214.5725.7241.5717.5623.380.77-
2021/57.35-3.33-3.8733.1515.6523.010.78-
2021/47.61-5.52-0.4325.822.7620.030.9-
2021/38.0584.3245.5418.1936.0118.190.86-
2021/24.37-24.336.7810.1429.2917.080.92-
2021/15.77-16.9124.145.7724.1419.20.82-
2020/126.957.11-5.2175.4510.3718.950.75-
2020/116.4817.5-12.568.512.2419.150.75-
2020/105.52-22.81-7.1262.0215.6619.350.74-
2020/97.157.0224.2956.518.521.140.59-
2020/86.68-8.5720.5849.3517.7120.690.6-
2020/77.319.0527.142.6717.2721.660.57-
2020/66.7-12.433.1835.3615.4321.990.48-
2020/57.650.1252.0828.6611.9420.820.51主要係因客戶需求成長,營收變動達50%以上
2020/47.6438.1153.7421.012.1316.360.65客戶需求成長,與第一季停工導致之訂單遞延,營收變動達50%以上
2020/35.5373.22-1.2913.37-14.313.370.75-
2020/23.19-31.29-17.117.84-21.5915.170.67-
2020/14.65-36.56-24.394.65-24.3919.390.52-
2019/127.33-1.1316.9368.354.630.0N/A-
2019/117.4124.734.2161.033.330.0N/A-
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/111.132023/14.222022/17.362021/15.772020/14.65
2024/25.962023/25.352022/25.392021/24.372020/23.19
2024/310.652023/36.892022/38.142021/38.052020/35.53
2024/410.342023/47.722022/45.22021/47.612020/47.64
2024/512.482023/59.152022/59.472021/57.352020/57.65
2024/613.262023/68.272022/613.142021/68.422020/66.7
2024/715.032023/77.122022/710.212021/77.892020/77.31
2024/813.042023/87.42022/810.252021/89.222020/86.68
2024/914.652023/99.052022/99.842021/99.362020/97.15
2024/1010.462023/1011.252022/107.872021/108.662020/105.52
N/AN/A2023/1117.942022/117.812021/118.212020/116.48
N/AN/A2023/1218.112022/1210.92021/129.332020/126.95
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 3.06%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
24Q3 (20)0.37-37.29236.36
24Q2 (19)0.599.26227.78
24Q1 (18)0.540.0440.0
23Q4 (17)0.54390.91575.0
23Q3 (16)0.11-38.8922.22
23Q2 (15)0.1880.0100.0
23Q1 (14)0.125.042.86
22Q4 (13)0.08-11.11-38.46
22Q3 (12)0.090.0-50.0
22Q2 (11)0.0928.57-50.0
22Q1 (10)0.07-46.15-22.22
21Q4 (9)0.13-27.7885.71
21Q3 (8)0.180.0125.0
21Q2 (7)0.18100.0125.0
21Q1 (6)0.0928.57-18.18
20Q4 (5)0.07-12.50.0
20Q3 (4)0.080.00.0
20Q2 (3)0.08-27.270.0
20Q1 (2)0.1157.140.0
19Q4 (1)0.070.00.0

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