玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/1119.79-0.8325.16278.58.6365.31N/A-
2024/1019.96-21.9130.9258.717.5574.75N/A-
2024/925.56-12.5431.8238.755.9787.221.14-
2024/829.23-9.8743.03213.193.5393.681.06-
2024/732.431.2518.1183.96-0.8195.461.04-
2024/632.033.2948.65151.53-4.192.90.98-
2024/531.03.817.49119.51-12.4287.951.04-
2024/429.8710.324.1888.5-17.7672.771.25-
2024/327.0871.07-19.7458.64-29.8458.641.59-
2024/215.830.59-41.3731.56-36.6746.841.99-
2024/115.732.99-31.1215.73-31.1246.821.99配合市場需求調整
2023/1215.28-3.38-56.44271.63-26.4346.332.06依市場需求配合調整
2023/1115.813.71-56.83256.36-23.2750.451.89因應市場,配合需求調整
2023/1015.25-21.38-54.85240.55-19.1455.071.73配合市場庫存調節
2023/919.39-5.09-38.56225.3-14.5767.291.36-
2023/820.43-25.58-32.36205.91-11.3169.441.32-
2023/727.4627.45-15.67185.47-8.1677.851.18-
2023/621.54-25.3-27.99158.01-6.7274.441.35-
2023/528.8419.92-6.47136.47-2.1586.631.16-
2023/424.05-28.71-11.15107.63-0.9384.781.19-
2023/333.7424.971.0983.582.4583.581.24-
2023/227.018.1717.5249.843.3984.921.22-
2023/122.84-34.88-9.4722.84-9.4794.551.1-
2022/1235.08-4.2256.92369.2225.82105.480.97去年基期較低,今年產品平均單價亦較高
2022/1136.638.4676.66334.1423.26101.961.01.去年基期較低; 2.零組件供料較順暢; 3.EBIKE佔比高; 4.生產效率提升
2022/1033.776.9848.37297.5118.8395.551.07-
2022/931.574.4773.18263.7415.8894.341.08去年同期基期較低
2022/830.21-7.2117.45232.1810.8992.71.09-
2022/732.568.836.16201.979.9793.321.09-
2022/629.92-2.9719.12169.410.7487.830.97-
2022/530.8413.9231.06139.489.0991.280.93-
2022/427.07-18.8812.37108.644.1383.411.02-
2022/333.3745.274.4581.581.6681.581.05-
2022/222.97-8.96-14.948.2-0.1870.561.21-
2022/125.2312.8718.4725.2318.4768.321.25-
2021/1222.357.81-7.88293.448.3165.851.17-
2021/1120.73-8.89-9.21271.099.961.721.25-
2021/1022.7624.862.6250.3511.8566.711.16-
2021/918.23-29.14-24.04227.5912.8774.620.92-
2021/825.72-16.128.72209.3717.8681.510.85-
2021/730.6722.1121.0183.6419.2679.320.87-
2021/625.126.75-14.24152.9718.9272.731.0-
2021/523.53-2.31-8.87127.8628.779.560.91-
2021/424.09-24.615.11104.3341.8983.030.88-
2021/331.9518.3568.1480.2452.5580.240.78市場需求持續強勁(淡季不淡)供給及船運逐步紓解
2021/226.9926.7460.9148.2943.7472.560.87全球市場需求持續強大,供料.產能逐步提高,船運物流日漸紓解,銷售量額大幅成長
2021/121.3-12.2326.6121.326.6168.40.92-
2020/1224.276.250.55270.92-3.3269.290.72-
2020/1122.842.9612.85246.65-3.6969.020.72-
2020/1022.18-7.56-17.28223.81-5.1169.840.71-
2020/924.01.421.6201.63-3.5573.00.54-
2020/823.66-6.65-10.08177.64-4.278.290.5-
2020/725.35-13.45-10.39153.98-3.2380.450.49-
2020/629.2913.4215.58128.63-1.6876.030.49-
2020/525.8223.47.8699.34-5.8365.750.57-
2020/420.9210.12-18.8973.52-9.8556.70.66-
2020/319.013.253.8552.6-5.6752.60.93-
2020/216.78-0.26-3.0633.6-10.3257.730.84-
2020/116.82-30.3-16.5516.82-16.550.0N/A-
2019/1224.1319.2519.3280.248.580.0N/A-
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/115.732023/122.842022/125.232021/121.32020/116.82
2024/215.832023/227.02022/222.972021/226.992020/216.78
2024/327.082023/333.742022/333.372021/331.952020/319.0
2024/429.872023/424.052022/427.072021/424.092020/420.92
2024/531.02023/528.842022/530.842021/523.532020/525.82
2024/632.032023/621.542022/629.922021/625.122020/629.29
2024/732.432023/727.462022/732.562021/730.672020/725.35
2024/829.232023/820.432022/830.212021/825.722020/823.66
2024/925.562023/919.392022/931.572021/918.232020/924.0
2024/1019.962023/1015.252022/1033.772021/1022.762020/1022.18
2024/1119.792023/1115.812022/1136.632021/1120.732020/1122.84
N/AN/A2023/1215.282022/1235.082021/1222.352020/1224.27
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 6.35%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
24Q3 (20)1.9-5.0427.78
24Q2 (19)2.090.48257.14
24Q1 (18)1.05169.23-84.51
23Q4 (17)0.398.33-98.12
23Q3 (16)0.36-35.71-98.74
23Q2 (15)0.56-91.74-97.57
23Q1 (14)6.78-67.39-70.46
22Q4 (13)20.79-27.43-13.88
22Q3 (12)28.6524.354.7
22Q2 (11)23.050.4423.86
22Q1 (10)22.95-4.93270.16
21Q4 (9)24.1430.351408.75
21Q3 (8)18.52-0.48830.65
21Q2 (7)18.61200.160
21Q1 (6)6.2287.50
20Q4 (5)1.6-19.60
20Q3 (4)1.9900.0

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