玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/119.717.19-17.43103.4-18.6327.18N/A-
2024/108.27-10.19-20.9693.7-18.7523.92N/A-
2024/99.2143.13-4.6985.43-18.5325.620.93-
2024/86.44-35.47-53.3176.21-19.9327.880.862024年8月合併營業收入較去年同期減少,主係PVC粉銷量減少所致。
2024/79.97-13.03-2.2569.78-14.2831.60.76-
2024/611.4712.9313.0459.8-16.030.760.87-
2024/510.1611.18-13.748.33-20.8329.10.91-
2024/49.13-6.9-20.4738.18-22.5327.490.97-
2024/39.8114.77-15.6829.05-23.1629.050.92-
2024/28.55-20.0-36.1419.23-26.4929.420.91-
2024/110.694.85-16.3710.69-16.3732.620.82-
2023/1210.19-13.23-25.93137.26-22.1732.40.78-
2023/1111.7412.1912.38127.07-21.8631.880.79-
2023/1010.478.29-3.63115.33-24.2133.920.74-
2023/99.67-29.88-21.58104.86-25.7933.660.72-
2023/813.7935.115.7895.19-26.1934.140.71-
2023/710.20.57-34.5981.41-30.4632.120.75-
2023/610.15-13.78-32.0371.2-29.8333.40.75-
2023/511.772.46-27.8761.06-29.4534.890.72-
2023/411.49-1.3-33.0349.29-29.8136.510.69-
2023/311.64-13.07-36.9537.8-28.7737.80.72-
2023/213.394.76-14.8226.16-24.4239.920.68-
2023/112.78-7.12-32.412.78-32.436.990.74-
2022/1213.7631.652.76176.38-12.7735.070.73-
2022/1110.45-3.79-38.42162.62-13.8733.640.76-
2022/1010.86-11.88-47.92152.17-11.4535.10.73-
2022/912.333.52-37.2141.31-6.4139.840.68-
2022/811.91-23.67-32.03128.98-1.8142.440.64-
2022/715.64.5-14.76117.082.8346.850.58-
2022/614.93-8.51-11.38101.476.248.40.75-
2022/516.32-4.8616.7786.559.9751.930.7-
2022/417.15-7.0614.8270.238.551.330.71-
2022/318.4617.431.2153.086.653.080.65-
2022/215.72-16.851.334.629.7248.010.72-
2022/118.941.1817.8618.917.8649.260.7-
2021/1213.39-21.1-20.35202.2247.2551.220.61-
2021/1116.97-18.6411.27188.8356.6757.460.54109年第二季全球爆發第一波新冠肺炎疫情,致需求驟降,今年因部分PVC大廠受疫情、歲修或天災而減產,價格大幅上漲。
2021/1020.866.2550.46171.8663.2558.010.53109年第二季全球爆發第一波新冠肺炎疫情,致需求驟降,今年因部分PVC大廠受疫情、歲修或天災而減產,價格大幅上漲。
2021/919.6312.0672.97151.065.1955.450.4109年第二季全球爆發第一波新冠肺炎疫情,致需求驟降,今年因部分PVC大廠受疫情、歲修或天災而減產,價格大幅上漲。
2021/817.52-4.2865.44131.3764.0952.670.42109年第二季全球爆發第一波新冠肺炎疫情,致需求驟降,今年因部分PVC大廠受疫情、歲修或天災而減產,價格大幅上漲。
2021/718.38.6471.29113.8563.8849.120.45109年第二季全球爆發第一波新冠肺炎疫情,致需求驟降,今年因部分PVC大廠受疫情、歲修或天災而減產,價格大幅上漲。
2021/616.8520.5577.6295.5462.5445.760.44109年第二季全球爆發第一波新冠肺炎疫情,致需求驟降,今年因部分PVC大廠受疫情、歲修或天災而減產,後疫情需求恢復。
2021/513.97-6.45125.1478.759.6347.150.43109年第二季全球爆發第一波新冠肺炎疫情,致需求驟降,今年因部分PVC大廠受疫情、歲修或天災而減產,後疫情需求恢復。
2021/414.94-18.08108.0864.7350.248.690.42109年4月因新冠肺炎爆發第一波全球疫情,致需求驟降,今年因部分PVC大廠受疫情、歲修或事故而減產,後疫情需求恢復。
2021/318.2417.5342.549.7938.6349.790.3-
2021/215.51-3.2522.231.5536.4948.360.3-
2021/116.04-4.5953.916.0453.948.10.31109年1月逢春節假期營收較低 ; 今年因部分PVC大廠受疫情、歲修或事故而減產,後疫情需求恢復,庫存偏低致價格大漲。
2020/1216.8110.2236.29137.33-9.1645.920.26-
2020/1115.259.9924.06120.52-13.240.460.3-
2020/1013.8622.1511.0105.27-16.8235.80.34-
2020/911.357.181.191.4-19.8732.620.36-
2020/810.59-0.9-23.3780.06-22.1630.760.39-
2020/710.6812.65-19.0869.47-21.9726.380.45-
2020/69.4852.81-31.5958.78-22.4722.870.54-
2020/56.21-13.54-62.2949.3-20.4326.180.47因COVID-19新冠疫情影響
2020/47.18-43.89-45.7143.09-5.2932.670.38-
2020/312.80.7910.9535.9111.2635.910.47-
2020/212.721.8344.0823.1211.4335.450.47-
2020/110.42-15.51-12.6710.42-12.670.0N/A-
2019/1212.330.33-3.03151.19-0.480.0N/A-
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/110.692023/112.782022/118.92021/116.042020/110.42
2024/28.552023/213.392022/215.722021/215.512020/212.7
2024/39.812023/311.642022/318.462021/318.242020/312.8
2024/49.132023/411.492022/417.152021/414.942020/47.18
2024/510.162023/511.772022/516.322021/513.972020/56.21
2024/611.472023/610.152022/614.932021/616.852020/69.48
2024/79.972023/710.22022/715.62021/718.32020/710.68
2024/86.442023/813.792022/811.912021/817.522020/810.59
2024/99.212023/99.672022/912.332021/919.632020/911.35
2024/108.272023/1010.472022/1010.862021/1020.862020/1013.86
2024/119.72023/1111.742022/1110.452021/1116.972020/1115.25
N/AN/A2023/1210.192022/1213.762021/1213.392020/1216.81
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 1.53%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
24Q3 (20)0.89-2.250.85
24Q2 (19)0.9182.065.45
24Q1 (18)0.56.384.17
23Q4 (17)0.47-20.34-53.92
23Q3 (16)0.597.27-1.67
23Q2 (15)0.5514.58-35.29
23Q1 (14)0.48-52.94-37.66
22Q4 (13)1.0270.032.47
22Q3 (12)0.6-29.4139.53
22Q2 (11)0.8510.3918.06
22Q1 (10)0.770.0208.0
21Q4 (9)0.7779.0720.31
21Q3 (8)0.43-40.2843.33
21Q2 (7)0.72188.00
21Q1 (6)0.25-60.940
20Q4 (5)0.64113.330
20Q3 (4)0.300.0

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