玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/101.81-11.93-18.7719.2815.246.1N/A-
2024/92.05-8.081.5317.4720.466.370.7-
2024/82.237.4612.0715.4223.535.740.77-
2024/72.0845.8157.1113.1825.715.130.87因去年基期低
2024/61.43-12.131.3111.121.174.870.83-
2024/51.62-10.7716.59.6824.775.670.71-
2024/41.82-18.58.048.0526.595.720.71-
2024/32.2333.522.26.2333.266.230.55-
2024/21.67-28.24.924.040.355.350.64-
2024/12.3372.2585.272.3385.275.550.62因去年基期低
2023/121.35-27.74-36.4519.95-36.575.450.59-
2023/111.87-15.980.0818.6-36.586.120.53-
2023/102.2310.09-9.1316.73-39.076.240.52-
2023/92.021.45-16.0814.5-42.015.340.98-
2023/81.9950.65-24.2312.48-44.774.731.11-
2023/71.32-5.97-39.8210.49-47.484.121.27-
2023/61.411.03-47.649.16-48.434.481.07-
2023/51.39-17.26-52.987.75-48.574.90.98因通膨讓消費疲弱,景氣低迷,品牌廠存去化不如預期所致
2023/41.68-7.82-47.916.36-47.495.10.94-
2023/31.8314.62-46.164.68-47.344.681.25-
2023/21.5926.77-39.392.85-48.064.981.18-
2023/11.26-40.91-56.031.26-56.035.251.11過年休假
2022/122.1313.79-18.9231.465.776.450.84-
2022/111.87-23.72-32.4629.338.166.730.8-
2022/102.451.67-16.8127.4612.787.490.72-
2022/92.41-8.39-1.4225.0116.857.240.75-
2022/82.6319.661.1422.619.217.520.73-
2022/72.2-18.19-11.0319.9722.097.850.7-
2022/62.69-9.262.5317.7727.998.890.7-
2022/52.96-8.3315.615.0833.919.590.65-
2022/43.23-4.7329.5612.1239.319.260.67-
2022/33.3929.0539.78.8843.248.880.74-
2022/22.63-8.0450.565.4945.528.110.81因去年疫情關係基期低
2022/12.868.9641.172.8641.178.250.79因去年疫情關係基期低
2021/122.62-5.260.6429.7489.958.340.7因去年疫情關係基期低
2021/112.77-6.0550.5827.1293.368.160.71因去年關係基期低
2021/102.9520.48108.3824.3599.827.990.73因去年疫情關係基期低
2021/92.45-6.099.821.498.77.520.73因去年疫情關係基期低
2021/82.65.24157.9918.9698.557.70.71因去年疫情關係基期低
2021/72.47-5.71171.8416.3591.537.660.72因去年疫情關係基期低
2021/62.622.29129.0613.8881.967.680.77因去年疫情關係基期低
2021/52.562.73151.3611.2673.647.490.79因去年疫情關係基期低
2021/42.52.72182.848.759.146.670.89因去年疫情關係基期低
2021/32.4339.0870.946.235.326.20.89因去年疫情關係基期低
2021/21.75-13.7812.623.7719.315.411.02-
2021/12.0323.9825.762.0325.765.51.01-
2020/121.63-11.13-11.0715.66-46.874.891.04-
2020/111.8430.019.8314.02-49.254.481.14-
2020/101.4115.52-35.4912.19-53.313.651.4疫情影響,下游需求急速萎縮
2020/91.2221.36-40.7510.77-54.953.141.65疫情影響,下游需求急速萎縮
2020/81.0110.89-52.999.55-56.293.061.7疫情影響,下游需求急速萎縮
2020/70.91-20.55-67.468.54-56.653.071.69疫情影響,下游需求急速萎縮
2020/61.1412.25-33.657.63-54.863.051.8疫情影響,下游需求急速萎縮
2020/51.0215.59-69.576.48-57.273.321.65疫情影響,下游需求急速萎縮
2020/40.88-37.91-70.075.46-53.793.851.42疫情影響,下游需求急速萎縮
2020/31.42-8.36-55.024.58-48.384.581.15疫情影響,下游需求急速萎縮
2020/21.55-3.72-35.733.16-44.715.01.05-
2020/11.61-12.33-51.271.61-51.274.981.06因中美貿易爭端未明,下游客戶下單保守,及春節休假所致
2019/121.8419.75-36.9529.47-19.270.0N/A-
2019/111.53-30.02-48.6127.64-17.730.0N/A-
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/12.332023/11.262022/12.862021/12.032020/11.61
2024/21.672023/21.592022/22.632021/21.752020/21.55
2024/32.232023/31.832022/33.392021/32.432020/31.42
2024/41.822023/41.682022/43.232021/42.52020/40.88
2024/51.622023/51.392022/52.962021/52.562020/51.02
2024/61.432023/61.412022/62.692021/62.622020/61.14
2024/72.082023/71.322022/72.22021/72.472020/70.91
2024/82.232023/81.992022/82.632021/82.62020/81.01
2024/92.052023/92.022022/92.412021/92.452020/91.22
2024/101.812023/102.232022/102.452021/102.952020/101.41
N/AN/A2023/111.872022/111.872021/112.772020/111.84
N/AN/A2023/121.352022/122.132021/122.622020/121.63
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 2.72%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
24Q3 (20)0.36-35.71125.0
24Q2 (19)0.56300.060.0
24Q1 (18)0.14-56.25-66.67
23Q4 (17)0.32100.03.23
23Q3 (16)0.16-54.29-60.98
23Q2 (15)0.35-16.67-27.08
23Q1 (14)0.4235.48-58.0
22Q4 (13)0.31-24.39-64.37
22Q3 (12)0.41-14.5864.0
22Q2 (11)0.48-52.0-15.79
22Q1 (10)1.014.9438.89
21Q4 (9)0.87248.0200.0
21Q3 (8)0.25-56.14-19.35
21Q2 (7)0.57-20.83200.0
21Q1 (6)0.72148.28554.55
20Q4 (5)0.29-6.45123.08
20Q3 (4)0.3163.160.0
20Q2 (3)0.1972.730.0
20Q1 (2)0.11-15.380.0
19Q4 (1)0.130.00.0

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