玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/110.8521.19-18.59.34-25.92.31N/A-
2024/100.7-8.18-33.628.5-26.572.43N/A-
2024/90.76-21.36-12.267.8-25.862.721.38-
2024/80.97-1.69-6.967.03-27.082.681.4-
2024/70.9936.14-5.956.07-29.522.871.31-
2024/60.72-37.45-36.255.08-32.782.661.43-
2024/51.1648.41-0.164.36-32.172.791.36-
2024/40.78-8.22-37.223.2-39.232.221.71-
2024/30.8544.46-48.942.42-39.852.421.49-
2024/20.59-39.95-51.31.57-33.422.771.3因今年2月工作天數相較於去年2月少所致
2024/10.98-18.79-14.590.98-14.593.231.12-
2023/121.2115.96-16.3413.82-8.563.31.05-
2023/111.04-1.29-27.1212.61-7.742.961.16-
2023/101.0521.36-22.4611.57-5.482.961.16-
2023/90.87-16.62-29.3710.52-3.362.961.33-
2023/81.04-0.62-16.329.65-0.053.231.22-
2023/71.05-7.71-19.188.612.353.341.18-
2023/61.14-2.059.287.566.283.541.19-
2023/51.16-6.67-7.46.425.764.071.04-
2023/41.24-25.36-5.925.269.184.121.02-
2023/31.6637.833.584.0214.894.021.02-
2023/21.215.3134.452.364.553.81.08-
2023/11.15-20.45-15.281.15-15.284.021.02-
2022/121.441.05.2115.1120.494.230.95-
2022/111.435.0215.313.6722.374.021.0-
2022/101.3610.5424.512.2423.253.831.05-
2022/91.23-1.27.3910.8823.093.771.07-
2022/81.24-4.0121.999.6525.433.581.13-
2022/71.324.7820.68.4125.963.591.13-
2022/61.04-17.04.727.1126.983.611.01-
2022/51.25-5.1829.46.0731.783.820.96-
2022/41.325.9838.444.8232.413.471.06-
2022/31.2538.6924.323.530.273.51.11-
2022/20.9-33.64-0.322.2533.813.621.07-
2022/11.35-1.2173.191.3573.193.960.98訂單增加營業額成長
2021/121.3710.740.9212.5436.693.71.04-
2021/111.2413.4184.8211.1736.193.481.1訂單增加營業額成長
2021/101.09-4.6565.189.9331.863.261.18訂單增加營業額成長
2021/91.1512.2262.438.8428.663.241.24訂單增加營業額成長
2021/81.02-5.151.817.724.83.091.3訂單增加營業額成長
2021/71.088.3460.556.6821.493.041.32訂單增加營業額成長
2021/60.992.5580.715.616.072.911.34訂單增加營業額成長
2021/50.971.4370.894.617.772.921.34訂單增加營業額成長
2021/40.95-4.8278.843.64-1.862.861.37訂單增加營業額成長
2021/31.011.18-1.382.69-15.422.691.38-
2021/20.915.3-23.261.68-22.022.661.4-
2021/10.78-19.62-20.550.78-20.552.421.53-
2020/120.9745.19-16.999.17-33.052.31.63-
2020/110.671.35-39.918.2-34.552.041.85-
2020/100.66-6.24-46.087.53-34.032.041.84-
2020/90.74.88-27.376.87-32.582.051.97-
2020/80.670.35-24.046.17-33.131.892.14-
2020/70.6721.95-39.365.49-34.11.792.26-
2020/60.55-3.01-36.754.82-33.291.652.73-
2020/50.576.47-53.054.28-32.822.122.13受新冠肺炎疫情影響營收下降
2020/40.53-47.76-57.233.71-28.092.721.65受新冠肺炎疫情影響營收下降
2020/31.02-13.34-27.123.18-18.833.181.53-
2020/21.1719.3733.992.16-14.223.331.46-
2020/10.98-16.02-40.00.98-40.00.0N/A-
2019/121.175.1-6.6413.71-12.830.0N/A-
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/10.982023/11.152022/11.352021/10.782020/10.98
2024/20.592023/21.212022/20.92021/20.92020/21.17
2024/30.852023/31.662022/31.252021/31.02020/31.02
2024/40.782023/41.242022/41.322021/40.952020/40.53
2024/51.162023/51.162022/51.252021/50.972020/50.57
2024/60.722023/61.142022/61.042021/60.992020/60.55
2024/70.992023/71.052022/71.32021/71.082020/70.67
2024/80.972023/81.042022/81.242021/81.022020/80.67
2024/90.762023/90.872022/91.232021/91.152020/90.7
2024/100.72023/101.052022/101.362021/101.092020/100.66
2024/110.852023/111.042022/111.432021/111.242020/110.67
N/AN/A2023/121.212022/121.442021/121.372020/120.97
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 2.45%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
24Q3 (20)0.3218.52-5.88
24Q2 (19)0.273.85-49.06
24Q1 (18)0.26-45.83-27.78
23Q4 (17)0.4841.18-20.0
23Q3 (16)0.34-35.85-35.85
23Q2 (15)0.5347.2210.42
23Q1 (14)0.36-40.0-12.2
22Q4 (13)0.613.2171.43
22Q3 (12)0.5310.4260.61
22Q2 (11)0.4817.0750.0
22Q1 (10)0.4117.145.13
21Q4 (9)0.356.06-23.91
21Q3 (8)0.333.12-5.71
21Q2 (7)0.32-17.9514.29
21Q1 (6)0.39-15.2250.0
20Q4 (5)0.4631.4348.39
20Q3 (4)0.3525.00.0
20Q2 (3)0.287.690.0
20Q1 (2)0.26-16.130.0
19Q4 (1)0.310.00.0

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