玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/110.67-7.4117.267.1318.322.07N/A品牌需求增加,訂單回流
2024/100.727.5262.146.4612.982.11N/A品牌需求增加,訂單回流
2024/90.67-5.3958.875.738.811.970.83疫情結束訂單回流
2024/80.7123.1737.65.064.421.850.88-
2024/70.583.3912.734.350.451.880.86-
2024/60.56-25.0416.633.77-1.191.870.74-
2024/50.7533.2331.453.21-3.761.950.71-
2024/40.56-13.1825.382.46-10.991.750.79-
2024/30.6518.69-25.821.9-17.991.90.64-
2024/20.54-23.76-37.51.26-13.291.780.68-
2024/10.7135.6323.020.7123.021.550.79-
2023/120.5370.2172.536.55-22.471.281.1品牌需求增加
2023/110.31-30.89-1.996.03-26.021.181.19-
2023/100.455.35-5.965.72-26.991.391.01-
2023/90.42-18.06-40.625.27-28.351.460.82-
2023/80.520.91-38.74.85-27.031.510.79-
2023/70.516.97-27.14.33-25.331.560.76-
2023/60.48-15.52-30.443.81-25.081.490.86-
2023/50.5727.08-16.53.33-24.241.890.68-
2023/40.45-48.64-38.192.77-25.662.190.59-
2023/30.870.01-33.182.32-22.642.320.6-
2023/20.8750.0512.231.45-14.551.750.8-
2023/10.5890.21-37.090.58-37.091.21.17-
2022/120.3-3.31-55.488.45-5.541.11.77受歐美市場影響,訂單量不足
2022/110.32-33.69-55.148.15-1.011.511.29受歐美市場影響,訂單量不足
2022/100.48-33.47-37.647.833.582.040.95-
2022/90.71-15.4-21.227.368.212.260.74-
2022/80.8420.01-3.676.6412.742.240.75-
2022/70.72.068.135.815.612.070.81-
2022/60.691.4-18.35.0916.732.091.01-
2022/50.68-5.92-7.284.425.142.710.78-
2022/40.72-44.48-5.733.7233.682.80.75-
2022/31.367.9960.173.048.673.00.732021年Q4-2022年Q1訂單增加使營收成長。
2022/20.78-15.8940.391.740.912.380.92-
2022/10.9234.641.350.9241.352.310.94-
2021/120.68-2.575.468.9541.852.151.2-
2021/110.7-7.8218.968.2345.452.371.09-
2021/100.76-15.9640.117.5649.192.551.02-
2021/90.913.4427.296.850.282.440.842020年Q3營收逐漸恢復,年度仍受COVID-19疫情影響,累計出貨量銳減,造成兩年度明顯差異
2021/80.8834.7169.435.8954.582.370.862020年Q3營收逐漸恢復,年度仍受COVID-19疫情影響,累計出貨量銳減,造成兩年度明顯差異
2021/70.65-22.8883.825.0152.252.230.922020年Q3營收逐漸恢復,年度仍受COVID-19疫情影響,累計出貨量銳減,造成兩年度明顯差異
2021/60.8415.07226.414.3648.442.350.772020年Q2受COVID-19疫情影響,出貨量銳減,造成兩年度明顯差異
2021/50.73-4.33230.813.5231.262.310.782020年Q2受COVID-19疫情影響,出貨量銳減,造成兩年度明顯差異
2021/40.77-5.6693.742.7813.262.130.852020年Q2受COVID-19疫情影響,出貨量銳減,造成兩年度明顯差異
2021/30.8147.25-2.272.02-2.182.020.85-
2021/20.55-15.32-20.391.2-2.111.850.92-
2021/10.650.4321.50.6521.51.890.9-
2020/120.659.88-2.556.31-22.91.780.91-
2020/110.598.56-10.55.66-24.71.850.88-
2020/100.54-23.64-12.45.07-26.071.770.91-
2020/90.7137.6911.764.52-27.441.580.93-
2020/80.5246.15-41.233.81-31.91.131.3-
2020/70.3536.92-34.433.29-30.160.831.76-
2020/60.2616.62-58.642.94-29.610.881.77因歐美疫情影響嚴重,導致訂單量下滑
2020/50.22-43.97-69.222.68-24.491.451.07因歐美疫情影響嚴重,導致訂單量下滑
2020/40.4-52.41-46.062.46-13.11.920.81-
2020/30.8319.95-2.682.06-1.552.060.74-
2020/20.6929.2412.031.23-0.771.90.8-
2020/10.54-19.45-13.550.54-13.550.0N/A-
2019/120.670.921.098.188.440.0N/A-
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/10.712023/10.582022/10.922021/10.652020/10.54
2024/20.542023/20.872022/20.782021/20.552020/20.69
2024/30.652023/30.872022/31.32021/30.812020/30.83
2024/40.562023/40.452022/40.722021/40.772020/40.4
2024/50.752023/50.572022/50.682021/50.732020/50.22
2024/60.562023/60.482022/60.692021/60.842020/60.26
2024/70.582023/70.512022/70.72021/70.652020/70.35
2024/80.712023/80.522022/80.842021/80.882020/80.52
2024/90.672023/90.422022/90.712021/90.912020/90.71
2024/100.722023/100.452022/100.482021/100.762020/100.54
2024/110.672023/110.312022/110.322021/110.72020/110.59
N/AN/A2023/120.532022/120.32021/120.682020/120.65
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 1.28%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
24Q3 (20)0.1110.083.33
24Q2 (19)0.10.00.0
24Q1 (18)0.125.042.86
23Q4 (17)0.0833.33-11.11
23Q3 (16)0.06-40.0-33.33
23Q2 (15)0.142.8625.0
23Q1 (14)0.07-22.22-36.36
22Q4 (13)0.090.028.57
22Q3 (12)0.0912.5125.0
22Q2 (11)0.08-27.270.0
22Q1 (10)0.1157.14175.0
21Q4 (9)0.0775.0133.33
21Q3 (8)0.04-50.0100.0
21Q2 (7)0.08100.0300.0
21Q1 (6)0.0433.33100.0
20Q4 (5)0.0350.050.0
20Q3 (4)0.020.00.0
20Q2 (3)0.020.00.0
20Q1 (2)0.020.00.0
19Q4 (1)0.020.00.0

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