玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/112.840.56-45.5134.33-23.068.17N/A-
2024/102.8212.22-22.0131.5-20.18.06N/A-
2024/92.51-7.96-49.2128.68-19.918.031.13-
2024/82.73-1.99-36.8526.16-15.218.921.02-
2024/72.78-18.26-22.8523.44-11.699.640.94-
2024/63.41-1.273.3720.65-9.9310.010.91-
2024/53.459.52-19.417.24-12.1710.00.91-
2024/43.15-7.22-6.8813.79-10.159.650.94-
2024/33.49.41-21.1710.64-11.0710.640.99-
2024/23.1-24.98-18.577.24-5.3910.790.97-
2024/14.1416.767.694.147.6912.890.82-
2023/123.54-31.88-8.1648.171.4812.360.88-
2023/115.243.9325.8444.632.3413.760.79-
2023/103.62-26.91-2.7939.42-0.1212.880.84-
2023/94.9514.4321.3535.810.1512.880.79-
2023/84.3219.7316.4430.86-2.5611.230.9-
2023/73.619.51-9.526.54-5.0911.190.91-
2023/63.3-23.03-13.3822.93-4.3510.960.93-
2023/54.2826.534.2219.63-2.6511.980.85-
2023/43.38-21.46-10.5315.35-4.4111.510.88-
2023/34.3113.01-2.6711.97-2.5311.970.79-
2023/23.81-0.788.797.66-2.4511.520.83-
2023/13.84-0.42-11.523.84-11.5211.840.8-
2022/123.86-6.66-23.2947.46-4.9211.710.81-
2022/114.1311.18-3.5143.6-2.8611.930.8-
2022/103.72-8.75-13.939.47-2.7911.510.83-
2022/94.089.812.0835.75-1.4711.780.88-
2022/83.71-6.944.2631.67-2.9811.510.9-
2022/73.994.81.8327.96-3.8611.90.87-
2022/63.81-7.37-6.8123.97-4.7511.70.9-
2022/54.118.61-6.7720.17-4.3512.320.86-
2022/43.78-14.56-3.5216.06-3.7211.720.9-
2022/34.4326.33-10.6312.28-3.7812.280.81-
2022/23.5-19.31-2.217.850.5612.880.77-
2022/14.34-13.662.924.342.9213.660.73-
2021/125.0317.40.849.924.0613.640.78-
2021/114.29-0.78-17.944.894.4412.240.87-
2021/104.3218.78-40.6640.67.5311.520.92-
2021/93.642.14-8.1436.2819.0411.111.19-
2021/83.56-9.129.9732.6523.111.561.14-
2021/73.92-4.0921.029.0922.3112.411.07-
2021/64.08-7.3310.0225.1722.5212.410.97-
2021/54.4112.442.9721.0925.2713.280.9-
2021/43.92-20.8585.7816.6821.312.460.96本月營收較前期增加85.78%之原因:主要為前期受到疫情影響,國外客戶訂單減少。
2021/34.9538.2341.5412.769.6112.760.83-
2021/23.58-15.08-26.867.8-4.1112.80.83-
2021/14.22-15.4430.314.2230.3114.430.73-
2020/124.99-4.3843.6247.97-11.017.490.54-
2020/115.22-28.297.4742.98-14.7616.460.57-
2020/107.2883.8966.9937.76-17.1313.980.67本月較前期增67%:因客戶新車型量產,出貨量增加及認列模具收入
2020/93.9644.532.8730.48-26.039.941.06-
2020/82.74-15.38-40.926.52-29.019.691.09-
2020/73.24-12.79-23.2723.78-27.3310.031.05-
2020/63.7120.42-21.5920.54-27.938.91.02-
2020/53.0846.04-36.7616.83-29.198.691.04-
2020/42.11-39.7-50.2713.75-27.2410.510.86本月營收較前期減少50.27%之原因:主要為受到疫情影響,國外客戶訂單減少。
2020/33.5-28.57-50.2911.64-20.5711.640.75本月營收較前期減少50.29%原因:主要為去年同期客戶新車型量產認列模具收入,致本月模具收入較去年同期減3.2億元。
2020/24.951.340.768.146.9111.610.75-
2020/13.24-6.8-21.63.24-21.60.0N/A-
2019/123.48-28.45-12.6753.9-5.490.0N/A-
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/14.142023/13.842022/14.342021/14.222020/13.24
2024/23.12023/23.812022/23.52021/23.582020/24.9
2024/33.42023/34.312022/34.432021/34.952020/33.5
2024/43.152023/43.382022/43.782021/43.922020/42.11
2024/53.452023/54.282022/54.112021/54.412020/53.08
2024/63.412023/63.32022/63.812021/64.082020/63.71
2024/72.782023/73.612022/73.992021/73.922020/73.24
2024/82.732023/84.322022/83.712021/83.562020/82.74
2024/92.512023/94.952022/94.082021/93.642020/93.96
2024/102.822023/103.622022/103.722021/104.322020/107.28
2024/112.842023/115.22022/114.132021/114.292020/115.22
N/AN/A2023/123.542022/123.862021/125.032020/124.99
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 7.22%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
24Q3 (20)0.55-5.17-29.49
24Q2 (19)0.58-37.63-65.27
24Q1 (18)0.93272.0-36.73
23Q4 (17)0.25-67.95-78.07
23Q3 (16)0.78-53.29-43.88
23Q2 (15)1.6713.61297.62
23Q1 (14)1.4728.95297.3
22Q4 (13)1.14-17.99111.11
22Q3 (12)1.39230.95-22.35
22Q2 (11)0.4213.51-75.72
22Q1 (10)0.37-31.48-79.67
21Q4 (9)0.54-69.83-66.04
21Q3 (8)1.793.47-56.45
21Q2 (7)1.73-4.95-44.01
21Q1 (6)1.8214.47-45.99
20Q4 (5)1.59-61.31-49.2
20Q3 (4)4.1133.010.0
20Q2 (3)3.09-8.310.0
20Q1 (2)3.377.670.0
19Q4 (1)3.130.00.0

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