玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/102.675.1215.8623.648.987.79N/A-
2024/92.54-1.523.0820.968.167.351.07-
2024/82.5815.817.218.428.96.791.16-
2024/72.2312.437.2515.849.186.51.21-
2024/61.98-13.5-14.2313.619.56.41.22-
2024/52.297.76-4.4211.6314.927.01.11-
2024/42.13-17.756.929.3420.936.831.14-
2024/32.5821.7214.317.2225.787.220.94-
2024/22.12-15.275.54.6333.257.150.94-
2024/12.51-0.3971.452.5171.457.790.87去年春節工作日減少所致
2023/122.52-9.2114.9826.9810.587.590.83-
2023/112.7720.2132.2324.4610.147.540.84-
2023/102.31-6.469.4521.697.847.180.88-
2023/92.472.425.1319.387.656.950.88-
2023/82.4115.8733.6916.925.56.80.91-
2023/72.08-10.088.1714.511.946.790.91-
2023/62.31-3.61-3.3812.430.966.71.01-
2023/52.420.569.7910.122.016.651.02-
2023/41.99-12.06-13.787.72-0.176.261.08-
2023/32.2612.341.155.745.595.741.28-
2023/22.0137.6873.723.478.75.661.29本月增減百分比,因去年同期過年休假天數較長所致。
2023/11.46-33.2-28.251.46-28.255.751.27-
2022/122.194.4127.2324.3924.246.391.23-
2022/112.1-0.494.8722.2123.956.171.27-
2022/102.116.9214.7820.1126.355.881.34-
2022/91.979.4121.6318.027.865.691.4-
2022/81.8-6.248.2216.0328.676.111.31-
2022/71.92-19.6918.9614.2331.826.491.23-
2022/62.399.5339.9912.3134.086.881.04-
2022/52.18-5.3332.089.9232.736.721.06-
2022/42.313.1689.377.7432.915.71.25主係去年歐美客戶受疫情影響,客戶延緩或取消訂單,目前歐美疫情趨緩、上海封城影響貨櫃運輸動能提升,使出貨較去年同期增加。
2022/32.2492.9329.365.4317.975.431.41-
2022/21.16-43.14-9.433.211.134.921.56-
2022/12.0418.4727.622.0427.625.761.33-
2021/121.72-13.93-10.6219.632.865.551.34-
2021/112.08.934.6417.914.375.451.36-
2021/101.8413.316.915.921.55.121.45-
2021/91.62-2.65-12.2614.080.844.91.44-
2021/81.663.06-2.5312.462.844.991.41-
2021/71.61-5.49-7.7510.83.724.981.41-
2021/61.713.3447.489.186.044.581.45-
2021/51.6535.7251.077.47-0.354.61.44去年同期受新冠肺炎疫情影響,營收大幅減少。
2021/41.22-29.5222.945.82-9.134.231.57-
2021/31.7335.07-8.844.6-14.994.61.36-
2021/21.28-19.87-33.452.88-18.314.81.3-
2021/11.6-17.04-0.091.6-0.095.011.25-
2020/121.9229.66-17.4619.09-20.255.131.08-
2020/111.48-13.53-34.1417.16-20.565.051.1-
2020/101.72-7.0-8.8315.68-18.975.271.06-
2020/91.858.15-0.1713.96-20.075.30.99-
2020/81.71-2.46-15.212.12-22.424.621.14-
2020/71.7551.09-14.0410.41-23.494.01.31-
2020/61.165.86-28.838.66-25.153.241.73-
2020/51.0910.45-44.927.5-24.553.981.41-
2020/40.99-47.75-50.66.41-19.464.811.17主係歐美主要客戶受新冠肺炎影響,客戶延緩或取消訂單,致業績受影響,預期疫情減緩,歐美解除封城後,客戶延遲訂單會逐步恢復。
2020/31.9-1.39-11.645.42-8.975.420.92-
2020/21.9220.2929.33.52-7.475.850.85-
2020/11.6-31.46-31.061.6-31.066.180.81-
2019/122.333.4412.6323.94-0.930.0N/A-
2019/112.2519.714.9721.61-2.20.0N/A-
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/12.512023/11.462022/12.042021/11.62020/11.6
2024/22.122023/22.012022/21.162021/21.282020/21.92
2024/32.582023/32.262022/32.242021/31.732020/31.9
2024/42.132023/41.992022/42.312021/41.222020/40.99
2024/52.292023/52.42022/52.182021/51.652020/51.09
2024/61.982023/62.312022/62.392021/61.712020/61.16
2024/72.232023/72.082022/71.922021/71.612020/71.75
2024/82.582023/82.412022/81.82021/81.662020/81.71
2024/92.542023/92.472022/91.972021/91.622020/91.85
2024/102.672023/102.312022/102.112021/101.842020/101.72
N/AN/A2023/112.772022/112.12021/112.02020/111.48
N/AN/A2023/122.522022/122.192021/121.722020/121.92
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季
合約負債 QoQ YoY

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