玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/100.1257.89-9.330.88-49.240.31N/A-
2024/90.08-28.2-47.710.75-52.650.291.1減少低毛利接單,部份客戶訂單減少
2024/80.113.26-32.560.68-53.160.311.03減少低毛利接單,部份客戶訂單減少
2024/70.116.87-45.140.57-55.740.291.09減少低毛利接單,部份客戶訂單減少
2024/60.110.6-34.380.46-57.610.281.34減少低毛利接單,部份客戶訂單減少
2024/50.09-0.79-53.280.36-61.310.271.38減少低毛利接單,部份客戶訂單減少
2024/40.09-0.44-59.210.27-63.350.21.83減少低毛利接單,部份客戶訂單減少
2024/30.09297.65-55.190.18-65.070.182.0減少低毛利接單,部份客戶訂單減少
2024/20.02-68.7-86.880.09-71.110.192.0客戶訂單減少且適逢春節假期,產能及出貨減少
2024/10.07-20.0-53.690.07-53.690.31.25減少低毛利接單,部份客戶訂單減少
2023/120.09-32.64-58.531.95-31.830.361.03減少低毛利接單,部份客戶訂單減少
2023/110.13-1.08-49.141.86-29.630.420.88-
2023/100.14-8.95-61.011.73-27.460.450.83減少低毛利接單,部份客戶訂單減少
2023/90.15-7.39-39.611.59-21.720.51.06-
2023/80.16-16.0-50.521.44-19.250.51.06調整低毛利接單,部分客戶遞延下單;去年同期因訂單量,部份遞延至當月出貨
2023/70.1927.85-31.791.28-12.290.531.0-
2023/60.15-21.25-47.611.09-7.640.561.13-
2023/50.19-13.3922.250.945.140.611.03-
2023/40.229.3892.490.751.530.591.06大陸子公司去年同期因疫情影響,本月無產量及出貨
2023/30.216.370.10.53-15.10.531.38-
2023/20.1710.529.860.33-22.30.551.34-
2023/10.16-28.36-46.190.16-46.190.641.14-
2022/120.22-17.39-26.572.867.880.830.96-
2022/110.26-24.15-6.862.6412.220.860.93-
2022/100.3541.0151.652.3814.820.920.87訂單增加於本月生產完成出貨.
2022/90.25-24.126.222.035.050.851.27-
2022/80.3315.7894.811.794.890.891.21客戶增加、訂單增加及部份遞延至本月生產完成出貨.
2022/70.28-1.7935.161.46-4.880.721.49-
2022/60.2983.7617.661.18-11.150.561.8-
2022/50.1636.36-45.60.89-17.610.472.13-
2022/40.11-43.11-38.530.74-7.580.452.23-
2022/30.250.98-30.730.621.790.621.25-
2022/20.13-54.21-12.50.4230.950.721.08-
2022/10.29-2.2369.490.2969.490.870.9因疫情影響,致船期延遲,部份出貨延至本月出貨,及缺料情況持續,部份出貨也延至本月出貨
2021/120.34.7717.062.65-3.620.720.97-
2021/110.28104.92-0.672.36-5.720.651.07-
2021/100.14-40.47-42.032.07-6.380.541.3-
2021/90.2339.1647.751.93-2.070.611.04-
2021/80.17-19.66-35.111.7-6.380.621.02-
2021/70.21-14.5-19.311.54-1.640.740.85-
2021/60.24-15.04-2.681.331.830.710.84-
2021/50.2954.0730.111.082.910.760.79-
2021/40.19-35.89-33.580.8-4.260.630.96-
2021/30.2990.7143.470.6110.530.610.95-
2021/20.15-11.3128.850.32-8.330.581.01-
2021/10.17-32.47-27.020.17-27.020.710.82-
2020/120.25-11.1-27.352.75-22.630.780.64-
2020/110.2919.67.592.5-22.110.680.73-
2020/100.2451.71-4.622.21-24.790.650.77-
2020/90.16-38.89-54.971.98-26.660.670.88由於疫情尚未趨於穩定,海外接單仍受當地疫情狀況,呈現不穩定狀態,至於九月營收衰退部分,應有望於第四季回補出貨
2020/80.26-0.1-16.081.82-22.440.760.77-
2020/70.263.11-26.431.56-23.40.730.81-
2020/60.2513.58-31.71.3-22.770.750.93-
2020/50.22-21.35-34.151.05-20.30.71.0-
2020/40.2838.535.950.83-15.620.61.17-
2020/30.271.27-31.320.55-29.170.551.3-
2020/20.12-49.76-35.920.35-27.880.71.03-
2020/10.23-32.77-23.030.23-23.030.850.85-
2019/120.3531.65-8.583.56-16.110.0N/A-
2019/110.276.01-30.513.21-16.850.0N/A-
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/10.072023/10.162022/10.292021/10.172020/10.23
2024/20.022023/20.172022/20.132021/20.152020/20.12
2024/30.092023/30.22022/30.22021/30.292020/30.2
2024/40.092023/40.222022/40.112021/40.192020/40.28
2024/50.092023/50.192022/50.162021/50.292020/50.22
2024/60.12023/60.152022/60.292021/60.242020/60.25
2024/70.112023/70.192022/70.282021/70.212020/70.26
2024/80.112023/80.162022/80.332021/80.172020/80.26
2024/90.082023/90.152022/90.252021/90.232020/90.16
2024/100.122023/100.142022/100.352021/100.142020/100.24
N/AN/A2023/110.132022/110.262021/110.282020/110.29
N/AN/A2023/120.092022/120.222021/120.32020/120.25
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季
合約負債 QoQ YoY

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