玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/119.075.7520.6183.648.6325.95N/A-
2024/108.573.1120.8874.577.3325.08N/A-
2024/98.311.4524.2966.05.7923.81.63-
2024/88.212.43-0.0857.693.5723.01.68-
2024/77.29-3.017.6649.494.222.441.73-
2024/67.52-1.5712.8942.23.6322.021.62-
2024/57.6411.132.9834.691.8222.011.62-
2024/46.87-8.3910.9427.051.4920.01.78-
2024/37.533.2-3.8620.18-1.3620.181.68-
2024/25.63-20.15-16.5312.680.1820.31.67-
2024/17.05-7.3819.247.0519.2422.181.53-
2023/127.611.3-15.8384.61-23.4222.221.51-
2023/117.525.98-11.6676.99-24.0921.31.58-
2023/107.096.01-12.8969.48-25.2321.981.53-
2023/96.69-18.44-19.8462.38-26.4221.661.59-
2023/88.221.15-13.3455.7-27.7821.631.59-
2023/76.771.69-31.1947.49-29.820.841.65-
2023/66.66-10.21-26.0240.72-29.5520.261.82-
2023/57.4119.72-14.3234.07-30.221.411.72-
2023/46.19-20.62-37.526.65-33.6320.741.78-
2023/37.815.65-40.7220.46-32.3620.461.88-
2023/26.7514.07-15.8512.66-25.9221.711.77-
2023/15.91-34.63-34.825.91-34.8223.471.64-
2022/129.056.33-14.54110.48-6.4625.71.56-
2022/118.514.5-29.57101.44-5.6625.01.6-
2022/108.14-2.44-19.7592.93-2.6325.271.58-
2022/98.35-5.0-27.7884.79-0.626.971.8-
2022/88.79-10.7-20.4776.443.6527.621.76-
2022/79.849.33-1.2467.667.9127.491.77-
2022/69.03.99-13.3557.819.6327.561.68-
2022/58.65-12.67-10.6248.8115.2731.721.46-
2022/49.91-24.74.3640.1622.9431.091.49-
2022/313.1664.1644.3230.2530.5630.251.53-
2022/28.02-11.6342.0617.0921.6327.681.67-
2022/19.07-14.37.929.077.9231.741.46-
2021/1210.59-12.3725.1118.1146.6332.821.36-
2021/1112.0819.0756.16107.5349.1634.01.32去年疫情嚴重,各國需求低迷。今年疫情好轉,各國需求恢復,台灣扣件業接單大好,扣件及線材需求大增,故營業額大幅成長。
2021/1010.15-13.7753.3795.4448.3232.961.36去年疫情嚴重,各國需求低迷。今年疫情好轉,各國需求恢復,台灣扣件業接單大好,扣件及線材需求大增,故營業額大幅成長。
2021/911.776.5172.7885.5148.1132.781.15去年疫情嚴重,各國需求低迷。今年疫情好轉,各國需求恢復,台灣扣件業接單大好,扣件及線材需求大增,故營業額大幅成長。
2021/811.0510.8970.0473.7444.7931.41.2去年疫情嚴重,各國需求低迷。今年疫情好轉,各國需求恢復,台灣扣件業接單大好,扣件及線材需求大增,故營業額大幅成長。
2021/79.96-4.0749.1262.6941.0930.031.25-
2021/610.397.2658.4352.7339.6729.561.27(1)去年度因為新冠肺炎疫情影響(2)今年國際鋼價大幅調升,故導致兩期銷售金額差異擴大。
2021/59.681.9781.942.3535.7528.31.33去年度因為新冠肺炎疫情影響,導致銷售業績大幅下降。
2021/49.494.1145.9932.6626.2524.261.55-
2021/39.1261.5920.8923.1719.6323.171.51-
2021/25.64-32.861.9714.0518.8322.511.56-
2021/18.41-0.6633.668.4133.6624.611.43-
2020/128.469.386.7880.55-13.6922.811.45-
2020/117.7416.945.8572.08-15.621.161.57-
2020/106.62-2.86-16.2164.35-17.619.921.66-
2020/96.814.82-13.3957.74-17.7519.991.64-
2020/86.5-2.74-18.1150.93-18.319.731.66-
2020/76.681.91-18.2644.43-18.3318.561.76-
2020/66.5623.15-13.337.75-18.3518.381.81-
2020/55.32-18.15-34.7431.19-19.3319.371.72-
2020/46.5-13.78-14.1625.87-15.2219.581.7-
2020/37.5436.31-15.9419.37-15.7319.371.71-
2020/25.53-12.0-2.411.82-15.5919.751.68-
2020/16.29-20.64-24.566.29-24.560.0N/A-
2019/127.928.43-13.3493.33-5.140.0N/A-
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/17.052023/15.912022/19.072021/18.412020/16.29
2024/25.632023/26.752022/28.022021/25.642020/25.53
2024/37.52023/37.82022/313.162021/39.122020/37.54
2024/46.872023/46.192022/49.912021/49.492020/46.5
2024/57.642023/57.412022/58.652021/59.682020/55.32
2024/67.522023/66.662022/69.02021/610.392020/66.56
2024/77.292023/76.772022/79.842021/79.962020/76.68
2024/88.22023/88.22022/88.792021/811.052020/86.5
2024/98.312023/96.692022/98.352021/911.772020/96.81
2024/108.572023/107.092022/108.142021/1010.152020/106.62
2024/119.072023/117.522022/118.512021/1112.082020/117.74
N/AN/A2023/127.612022/129.052021/1210.592020/128.46
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 18.6%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
24Q3 (20)5.6218.3219.57
24Q2 (19)4.753.940.0
24Q1 (18)4.57-5.192.47
23Q4 (17)4.822.552.34
23Q3 (16)4.7-1.050.21
23Q2 (15)4.756.513.64
23Q1 (14)4.46-5.310.68
22Q4 (13)4.710.4315.72
22Q3 (12)4.6912.214.95
22Q2 (11)4.18-5.6424.04
22Q1 (10)4.438.8541.99
21Q4 (9)4.07-0.2566.8
21Q3 (8)4.0821.07121.74
21Q2 (7)3.378.0190.4
21Q1 (6)3.1227.87138.17
20Q4 (5)2.4432.6153.46
20Q3 (4)1.843.950.0
20Q2 (3)1.7735.110.0
20Q1 (2)1.31-17.610.0
19Q4 (1)1.590.00.0

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