玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/1012.35-15.41-2.31144.22-13.5242.52N/A-
2024/914.6-6.320.47131.87-14.4447.370.43-
2024/815.58-9.412.76117.28-15.9951.290.4-
2024/717.2-7.086.3101.7-19.1553.180.38-
2024/618.515.91-28.6984.5-22.9149.910.49-
2024/517.4825.51-22.3365.99-21.1145.470.54-
2024/413.92-1.09-17.0248.51-20.6737.290.66-
2024/314.0851.59-12.0134.59-22.0434.590.69-
2024/29.29-17.29-28.2720.51-27.736.730.65-
2024/111.23-30.76-27.2211.23-27.2241.870.57-
2023/1216.2212.39-9.55197.42-37.0243.290.43-
2023/1114.4314.16-18.0181.2-38.6841.590.45-
2023/1012.64-12.99-37.24166.77-39.9940.980.46-
2023/914.535.13-33.87154.13-40.2144.520.53-
2023/813.82-14.6-47.21139.61-40.855.950.42-
2023/716.18-37.67-40.96125.79-40.064.630.36-
2023/625.9615.36-39.61109.61-39.8565.240.3-
2023/522.534.09-35.4483.65-39.9355.280.36-
2023/416.784.87-43.9261.16-41.4345.730.43-
2023/316.023.57-42.5944.38-40.4344.380.7-
2023/212.95-16.08-31.5428.38-39.1346.310.67-
2023/115.43-13.94-44.3115.43-44.3150.960.61-
2022/1217.931.88-47.53313.47-1.7955.670.61-
2022/1117.6-12.61-50.32295.543.6959.70.57疫情紅利結束,市場需求疲軟,客戶庫存需去化,所以客戶需求下滑
2022/1020.14-8.32-23.19277.9411.3568.280.49-
2022/921.97-16.08-31.22257.815.4175.550.4-
2022/826.18-4.47-11.84235.8423.1996.570.31-
2022/727.4-36.2522.93209.6629.62105.240.29-
2022/642.9923.3351.87182.2630.69107.760.36料況解決,提高出貨量所致
2022/534.8516.4847.78139.2725.392.650.42-
2022/429.927.3533.28104.4219.2476.710.5-
2022/327.8747.3522.6874.4914.474.490.61-
2022/218.91-31.7413.1246.629.9780.80.56-
2022/127.71-18.927.9227.717.9297.310.46-
2021/1234.18-3.5319.76319.222.8695.820.45-
2021/1135.4335.1167.38285.0223.2493.590.46客戶產品組合差異所致
2021/1026.22-17.9139.2249.5918.7987.850.49-
2021/931.947.5619.64223.3716.7883.920.63-
2021/829.6933.234.72191.4316.3280.290.66-
2021/722.29-21.249.3161.7413.4874.180.71-
2021/628.320.011.18139.4514.1774.340.64-
2021/523.585.05-10.04111.1418.0368.750.69-
2021/422.45-1.18-16.2287.5628.8761.890.77-
2021/322.7235.8733.4565.1158.2465.110.64109年受新冠病毒疫情影響所致。
2021/216.72-34.88276.0942.3975.7470.930.59109年受大陸新冠病毒疫情影響,本公司之大陸子公司配合當地政府防疫要求展延復工所致。
2021/125.68-10.0230.4725.6830.4775.380.56-
2020/1228.5434.826.76259.8-9.168.540.52-
2020/1121.1612.36-9.34231.26-10.7466.70.53-
2020/1018.84-29.44-16.52210.1-10.8767.570.53-
2020/926.721.126.47191.26-10.2869.130.47-
2020/822.048.07-5.91164.57-12.5170.410.46-
2020/720.39-27.09-14.4142.53-13.4574.580.44-
2020/627.976.74.87122.13-13.2980.990.29-
2020/526.22-2.161.8994.16-17.5370.040.33-
2020/426.857.415.7167.94-23.1848.260.48-
2020/317.02282.92-37.4141.15-34.7941.150.87-
2020/24.45-77.4-69.2424.12-32.8150.850.71主要受大陸新冠病毒疫情影響,本公司之大陸子公司配合當地政府防疫要求展延復工所致。
2020/119.68-26.37-8.2719.68-8.2769.750.52-
2019/1226.7314.47-10.24285.82-10.310.0N/A-
2019/1123.353.46-8.32259.09-10.320.0N/A-
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/111.232023/115.432022/127.712021/125.682020/119.68
2024/29.292023/212.952022/218.912021/216.722020/24.45
2024/314.082023/316.02022/327.872021/322.722020/317.02
2024/413.922023/416.782022/429.922021/422.452020/426.8
2024/517.482023/522.52022/534.852021/523.582020/526.22
2024/618.512023/625.962022/642.992021/628.32020/627.97
2024/717.22023/716.182022/727.42021/722.292020/720.39
2024/815.582023/813.822022/826.182021/829.692020/822.04
2024/914.62023/914.532022/921.972021/931.942020/926.7
2024/1012.352023/1012.642022/1020.142021/1026.222020/1018.84
N/AN/A2023/1114.432022/1117.62021/1135.432020/1121.16
N/AN/A2023/1216.222022/1217.932021/1234.182020/1228.54
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 79.28%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
24Q3 (20)44.199.989.98
24Q2 (19)40.18-0.96-1.9
24Q1 (18)40.57-0.51-0.86
23Q4 (17)40.781.490.47
23Q3 (16)40.18-1.9-1.71
23Q2 (15)40.960.11.94
23Q1 (14)40.920.81-1.23
22Q4 (13)40.59-0.710.84
22Q3 (12)40.881.740.86
22Q2 (11)40.18-3.021.08
22Q1 (10)41.432.933.21
21Q4 (9)40.25-0.693.13
21Q3 (8)40.531.963.0
21Q2 (7)39.75-0.9744.44
21Q1 (6)40.142.8445.86
20Q4 (5)39.03-0.8128.77
20Q3 (4)39.3542.990.0
20Q2 (3)27.520.00.0
20Q1 (2)27.52-9.20.0
19Q4 (1)30.310.00.0

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