玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/1016.35-38.2959.7120.4327.3361.2N/A出貨增加
2024/926.4944.32166.85104.0823.452.880.49出貨增加
2024/818.36128.769.9877.584.2636.60.71出貨增加
2024/78.03-21.44-31.8759.22-6.8925.421.03-
2024/610.2242.42-19.3851.2-1.2129.570.72-
2024/57.17-41.09-17.0340.984.6627.360.78-
2024/412.1852.1821.033.8110.8225.970.82-
2024/38.038.324.1221.635.821.631.04-
2024/25.79-26.16-20.413.626.8227.630.81-
2024/17.84-44.0542.927.8442.9239.730.56-
2023/1214.01-21.68118.92126.4736.0342.130.56出貨增加
2023/1117.8974.7471.95112.4629.938.050.62出貨增加
2023/1010.243.195.2594.5724.1630.960.76出貨增加
2023/99.93-8.06-3.3784.3418.932.510.92-
2023/810.8-8.349.874.4122.6835.260.85-
2023/711.78-7.03101.1963.6125.1733.10.9出貨增加
2023/612.6746.5675.3151.8315.2731.391.04出貨增加
2023/58.65-14.092.1239.153.7626.41.23-
2023/410.0730.9540.1230.54.2425.021.3-
2023/37.695.73-18.1220.44-7.4320.441.57-
2023/27.2732.5840.2512.750.4819.151.67-
2023/15.48-14.31-26.975.48-26.9722.281.44-
2022/126.4-38.48-10.7192.9732.5722.041.3-
2022/1110.498.4168.9686.5737.525.921.1出貨增加
2022/105.24-48.97-15.0376.1734.0925.351.13-
2022/910.284.4658.0570.9340.0825.970.87出貨增加
2022/89.8467.9569.1160.6537.4322.920.99出貨增加
2022/75.86-18.99-9.150.8232.6221.551.05-
2022/67.23-14.6220.3244.9641.0522.880.82-
2022/58.4717.8754.3437.7345.8725.040.75出貨量增加
2022/47.18-23.4853.3129.2643.5921.750.87主係出貨量增加所致
2022/39.3981.1471.9822.0840.6922.080.78主係本月出貨量增加所致
2022/25.18-30.9619.4612.6923.9919.860.87-
2022/17.514.7627.337.5127.3320.830.83-
2021/127.1716.4113.0170.137.8419.490.83-
2021/116.16-0.22-0.6762.967.2818.830.86-
2021/106.17-5.0823.3956.88.2218.490.87-
2021/96.511.78-3.6750.636.6218.760.68-
2021/85.82-9.7210.2244.138.3318.270.7-
2021/76.447.2323.8838.328.0417.940.71-
2021/66.019.510.5731.875.3216.180.64-
2021/55.4917.0817.825.866.4915.630.67-
2021/44.69-14.164.920.383.8114.480.72-
2021/35.4625.82-13.1815.693.4815.690.58-
2021/24.34-26.4111.0410.2315.2916.580.55-
2021/15.9-7.0218.635.918.6318.440.49-
2020/126.342.3128.2365.0317.6517.540.48-
2020/116.223.9429.2158.6916.6117.950.47-
2020/105.0-25.9115.0252.4915.2817.030.49-
2020/96.7527.9235.9447.4915.3117.230.49-
2020/85.281.4611.4840.7412.4816.450.51-
2020/75.2-12.9420.4335.4612.6315.830.53-
2020/65.9728.2731.7430.2611.3915.10.61-
2020/54.664.26-11.1624.297.3115.410.59-
2020/44.47-28.96-7.7119.6312.8814.660.62-
2020/36.2960.9326.015.1620.8315.160.54-
2020/23.91-21.3819.328.8817.4213.820.6-
2020/14.970.4915.964.9715.9614.710.56-
2019/124.953.11.0955.2715.240.0N/A-
2019/114.810.331.4850.3316.850.0N/A-
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/17.842023/15.482022/17.512021/15.92020/14.97
2024/25.792023/27.272022/25.182021/24.342020/23.91
2024/38.02023/37.692022/39.392021/35.462020/36.29
2024/412.182023/410.072022/47.182021/44.692020/44.47
2024/57.172023/58.652022/58.472021/55.492020/54.66
2024/610.222023/612.672022/67.232021/66.012020/65.97
2024/78.032023/711.782022/75.862021/76.442020/75.2
2024/818.362023/810.82022/89.842021/85.822020/85.28
2024/926.492023/99.932022/910.282021/96.52020/96.75
2024/1016.352023/1010.242022/105.242021/106.172020/105.0
N/AN/A2023/1117.892022/1110.42021/116.162020/116.2
N/AN/A2023/1214.012022/126.42021/127.172020/126.34
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 147.96%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
24Q3 (20)82.166.73152.96
24Q2 (19)76.98160.8672.95
24Q1 (18)29.5111.11-25.98
23Q4 (17)26.56-18.2314.33
23Q3 (16)32.48-27.0345.85
23Q2 (15)44.5111.64197.73
23Q1 (14)39.8771.63402.14
22Q4 (13)23.234.31384.97
22Q3 (12)22.2748.96322.58
22Q2 (11)14.9588.29716.94
22Q1 (10)7.9465.76331.52
21Q4 (9)4.79-9.11672.58
21Q3 (8)5.27187.98448.96
21Q2 (7)1.83-0.5472.64
21Q1 (6)1.84196.7773.58
20Q4 (5)0.62-35.42-38.0
20Q3 (4)0.96-9.430.0
20Q2 (3)1.060.00.0
20Q1 (2)1.066.00.0
19Q4 (1)1.00.00.0

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