玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/100.4-15.06-21.045.52-17.831.57N/A-0.160.08-
2024/90.47-33.25-12.55.12-17.571.90.06-0.10.24-
2024/80.7-2.85-18.514.65-18.052.080.050.070.34-
2024/70.7210.31-24.893.95-17.961.890.060.130.27-
2024/60.6629.85-12.73.22-16.231.680.070.020.14-
2024/50.51-1.62-9.052.56-17.091.540.07-0.050.12-
2024/40.51-0.98-22.762.06-18.851.690.07-0.030.17-
2024/30.52-20.54-0.811.54-17.461.540.08-0.040.2-
2024/20.6575.6513.651.03-23.921.480.080.350.24-
2024/10.37-18.13-51.870.37-51.871.310.09-0.11-0.11主係112年1月適逢農曆春節連續假期所致。
2023/120.45-5.26-24.787.65-8.51.440.08-0.080.8-
2023/110.48-5.07-17.577.19-7.231.520.07-0.060.88-
2023/100.51-5.88-31.086.71-6.391.910.06-0.030.94-
2023/90.54-37.83-31.246.21-3.582.360.05-0.020.97-
2023/80.86-10.46-24.465.670.232.580.050.231.0-
2023/70.9628.22-18.754.816.482.270.050.250.77-
2023/60.7535.2821.433.8415.481.970.060.150.51-
2023/50.56-16.4557.253.0914.121.740.070.00.37111年5月因疫情升溫,致使營收下降。
2023/40.6727.1511.672.547.651.760.070.10.36-
2023/30.52-8.94-5.581.876.291.870.070.090.26-
2023/20.57-25.62-2.341.3511.741.950.070.030.17-
2023/10.7727.9525.180.7725.181.960.070.140.14-
2022/120.63.81-7.798.3642.21.920.06-0.01.54-
2022/110.58-20.63-6.487.7648.472.10.050.021.54-
2022/100.73-6.093.487.1755.92.660.040.151.52110年7-9月疫情影響,營收銳減。
2022/90.78-31.743.086.4465.443.110.040.181.37110年7-9月疫情影響,營收銳減。
2022/81.14-3.69119.575.6669.092.950.040.51.19110年8月因疫情影響,營收銳減。
2022/71.1991.651151.164.5259.792.160.050.480.69110年7月因疫情影響,營收銳減。
2022/60.6275.181896.773.3321.881.570.070.10.21110年6月因疫情三級警戒,營收銳減。
2022/50.35-40.662.792.710.341.50.07-0.090.12-
2022/40.67.5-5.872.360.01.740.060.080.21-
2022/30.55-5.823.581.762.141.760.070.010.12-
2022/20.59-4.66-19.881.211.491.860.060.080.11-
2022/10.62-5.7536.130.6236.131.890.060.030.03-
2021/120.665.2834.965.88-20.191.990.060.090.15-
2021/110.62-12.1720.645.22-24.081.880.060.060.07-
2021/100.7129.83-9.844.6-27.711.770.070.160.01-
2021/90.554.79-19.153.89-30.231.160.090.08-0.15-
2021/80.52448.77-53.043.35-31.750.650.170.04-0.23因疫情三級警戒,致使營收減少。
2021/70.09205.86-90.482.83-25.530.470.23-0.1-0.27因疫情三級警戒,致使營收減少。
2021/60.03-90.98-95.172.73-2.391.010.11-0.24-0.17因疫情三級警戒,致使營收減少。
2021/50.34-45.67-19.172.725.271.510.07-0.10.07-
2021/40.6318.31134.122.3636.21.90.060.090.17109年因COVID-19影響收入減少
2021/30.54-27.1648.391.7218.061.720.06-0.020.08-
2021/20.7362.062.661.198.111.670.070.130.1主係109年及110年春節分別於1月及2月所致。
2021/10.45-6.56-29.940.45-29.941.450.08-0.03-0.03-
2020/120.49-5.881.057.37-2.171.790.060.020.87-
2020/110.52-34.37-3.546.88-2.391.980.06-0.020.85-
2020/100.7916.4223.736.37-2.32.570.040.180.86-
2020/90.67-39.1311.95.58-5.112.780.040.110.69-
2020/81.1111.2434.654.9-7.062.750.040.390.58-
2020/71.055.0612.623.8-14.772.070.060.310.19-
2020/60.6451.06-7.262.8-21.571.340.070.2-0.11-
2020/50.4357.37-27.212.16-25.021.060.09-0.05-0.31-
2020/40.27-25.01-55.091.73-24.461.080.09-0.14-0.26新冠病毒疫情影響所致
2020/30.36-20.15-33.071.46-13.541.460.07-0.12-0.12-
2020/20.45-30.23-31.591.1-4.381.580.06-0.060.0-
2020/10.6534.7932.330.6532.331.660.060.060.06-
2019/120.48-10.16-16.687.5312.340.0N/A0.010.32-
2019/110.53-15.816.877.0515.070.0N/A-0.040.32-
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/10.372023/10.772022/10.622021/10.452020/10.65
2024/20.652023/20.572022/20.592021/20.732020/20.45
2024/30.522023/30.522022/30.552021/30.542020/30.36
2024/40.512023/40.672022/40.62021/40.632020/40.27
2024/50.512023/50.562022/50.352021/50.342020/50.43
2024/60.662023/60.752022/60.622021/60.032020/60.64
2024/70.722023/70.962022/71.192021/70.092020/71.0
2024/80.72023/80.862022/81.142021/80.522020/81.11
2024/90.472023/90.542022/90.782021/90.552020/90.67
2024/100.42023/100.512022/100.732021/100.712020/100.79
N/AN/A2023/110.482022/110.582021/110.622020/110.52
N/AN/A2023/120.452022/120.62021/120.662020/120.49
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 5.53%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
24Q3 (20)0.67-16.25-12.99
24Q2 (19)0.85.26-13.04
24Q1 (18)0.76-12.64-5.0
23Q4 (17)0.8712.990.0
23Q3 (16)0.77-16.30.0
23Q2 (15)0.9215.00.0
23Q1 (14)0.8-8.05-8.05
22Q4 (13)0.8712.99-4.4
22Q3 (12)0.77-16.3-1.28
22Q2 (11)0.925.7515.0
22Q1 (10)0.87-4.48.75
21Q4 (9)0.9116.6713.75
21Q3 (8)0.78-2.52.63
21Q2 (7)0.80.0-6.98
21Q1 (6)0.80.014.29
20Q4 (5)0.85.26-3.61
20Q3 (4)0.76-11.630.0
20Q2 (3)0.8622.860.0
20Q1 (2)0.7-15.660.0
19Q4 (1)0.830.00.0

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