玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/101.891.11-10.7919.455.015.39N/A-
2024/91.8715.265.417.567.065.21.1-
2024/81.62-4.68-4.8815.697.275.131.11-
2024/71.7-5.86-8.4714.068.875.061.13-
2024/61.8116.4419.8512.3611.794.931.09-
2024/51.55-0.78-9.0210.5510.525.231.02-
2024/41.57-25.92-2.699.014.785.970.9-
2024/32.11-7.6643.617.4319.297.430.71-
2024/22.29-24.4514.255.3211.778.130.65-
2024/13.037.779.973.039.978.110.65-
2023/122.8123.985.4923.613.767.20.72-
2023/112.276.9310.5820.7914.986.160.84-
2023/102.1219.470.018.5215.545.60.92-
2023/91.774.01.1716.417.895.340.96-
2023/81.71-8.282.0914.6220.35.081.01-
2023/71.8623.2811.5112.9223.215.081.01-
2023/61.51-11.6129.4611.0625.424.830.06-
2023/51.716.11103.329.5524.84.790.06去年基期低及市況好轉
2023/41.619.3417.977.8415.125.080.06-
2023/31.47-26.54-15.066.2314.416.230.04-
2023/22.0-27.2822.444.7628.167.420.03-
2023/12.753.3832.672.7532.677.470.03-
2022/122.6629.9626.4220.7442.966.840.04市況好轉
2022/112.05-3.2930.9918.0845.595.920.05市況好轉
2022/102.1220.8759.0916.0347.75.550.05市況好轉
2022/91.754.9568.9213.9146.15.090.06市況好轉
2022/81.670.16111.4912.1543.314.510.06去年基期低及市況好轉
2022/71.6743.13335.3210.4836.33.670.08去年基期低及市況好轉
2022/61.1738.8308.638.8120.623.370.06去年基期低及市況好轉
2022/50.84-38.4229.247.658.923.940.05-
2022/41.36-21.285.576.816.854.730.04-
2022/31.735.8920.825.457.175.450.04-
2022/21.64-21.2-6.213.711.85.820.04-
2022/12.08-1.489.152.089.155.750.04-
2021/122.1134.66-4.614.51-20.875.010.05-
2021/111.5717.44-18.2412.42-23.03.940.07-
2021/101.3328.33-39.1210.85-23.643.160.09-
2021/91.0431.41-30.959.52-20.822.210.12-
2021/80.79106.17-50.48.48-19.371.460.19配合防疫政策自主性休館
2021/70.3834.36-74.547.69-13.831.320.2配合防疫政策自主性休館
2021/60.29-56.09-73.987.31-1.522.230.13配合防疫政策自主性休館
2021/50.65-49.7-17.847.0211.033.380.08-
2021/41.29-9.91139.176.3715.164.470.06市況好轉,本年營收逐步回穩
2021/31.43-17.855.545.081.755.080.06市況好轉,本年營收逐步回穩
2021/21.74-8.2943.453.65-10.425.860.05-
2021/11.9-13.9-33.371.9-33.376.030.05-
2020/122.2115.41-9.5518.34-22.976.310.05-
2020/111.91-12.55-14.4516.13-24.515.610.06-
2020/102.1945.578.7414.21-25.685.290.06-
2020/91.5-5.62-11.4212.02-29.734.60.07-
2020/81.595.83-4.5410.52-31.754.20.07-
2020/71.5137.33-14.328.93-35.063.390.09-
2020/61.138.63-43.047.42-38.12.430.09因新冠肺炎影響,致營收減少
2020/50.7946.42-56.016.32-37.152.250.1因新冠肺炎影響,致營收減少
2020/40.54-41.41-68.65.53-33.052.680.09因新冠肺炎影響,致營收減少
2020/30.92-24.19-55.534.99-23.74.990.04因新冠肺炎影響,致營收減少
2020/21.22-57.4-32.14.07-8.946.510.03-
2020/12.8616.876.522.866.527.540.03-
2019/122.449.15-4.5523.8139.40.0N/A-
2019/112.2411.1614.3121.3647.150.0N/A-
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/13.032023/12.752022/12.082021/11.92020/12.86
2024/22.292023/22.02022/21.642021/21.742020/21.22
2024/32.112023/31.472022/31.732021/31.432020/30.92
2024/41.572023/41.612022/41.362021/41.292020/40.54
2024/51.552023/51.712022/50.842021/50.652020/50.79
2024/61.812023/61.512022/61.172021/60.292020/61.1
2024/71.72023/71.862022/71.672021/70.382020/71.51
2024/81.622023/81.712022/81.672021/80.792020/81.59
2024/91.872023/91.772022/91.752021/91.042020/91.5
2024/101.892023/102.122022/102.122021/101.332020/102.19
N/AN/A2023/112.272022/112.052021/111.572020/111.91
N/AN/A2023/122.812022/122.662021/122.112020/122.21
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 21.18%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
24Q3 (20)2.249.270.9
24Q2 (19)2.059.63-9.29
24Q1 (18)1.87-20.76-10.1
23Q4 (17)2.366.31-13.87
23Q3 (16)2.22-1.77-2.63
23Q2 (15)2.268.650.0
23Q1 (14)2.08-24.09-9.57
22Q4 (13)2.7420.181.86
22Q3 (12)2.280.8834.12
22Q2 (11)2.26-1.7445.81
22Q1 (10)2.3-14.534.5
21Q4 (9)2.6958.2416.96
21Q3 (8)1.79.68-12.37
21Q2 (7)1.55-9.36-12.92
21Q1 (6)1.71-25.6514.0
20Q4 (5)2.318.5621.05
20Q3 (4)1.948.990.0
20Q2 (3)1.7818.670.0
20Q1 (2)1.5-21.050.0
19Q4 (1)1.90.00.0

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