玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 理想的成長型公司, 本業EPS的成長幅度會大於營收的成長幅度
  • 營收到某個數字後, 本業EPS呈現不成比例的增加, 有可能是規模經濟的效應
  • 如果是有淡旺季的公司, 是否有淡季不淡, 旺季更旺的情況
  • 漲很多的股票要留意 EPS 較上季是否有大幅衰退的情況
  • 如果EPS衰退,要觀察同業是不是有一樣的狀況
  • 要留意增資減資和公司債對股本及EPS的影響
成長能力-近20季
加權平均股數 QoQ YoYEPS QoQ YoY本業EPS QoQ YoY累計EPS QoQ YoY營收 QoQ YoY毛利率(%) QoQ YoY營業利益率 QoQ YoY稅後淨利率 QoQ YoY營業利益 QoQ YoY稅後淨利 QoQ YoY稅前淨利率(%) QoQ YoY稅後淨利率(%) QoQ YoY兩季平均(YOY)營收成長率(%)兩季平均(YOY)EPS成長率(%)兩季平均(YOY)本業EPS成長率(%)
24Q3 (20)10660.020.72-0.94-175.81-174.69.00210.57140.631.57-37.451670.0404.94.427.7324.69368.95151.2115.82186.83127.56-7.33-181.81-200.8364.04190.63129.68-10.02-175.57-190.11-10.36-237.04-223.48-7.33-181.81-200.83-4.13-89.09129.57
24Q2 (19)10660.021.971.24-2.36317.54-8.1448.5818.192.5197.64281.88387.75-12.6914.69-9.1865.2364.89-18.2246.2949.478.9617.43318.54-70.6653.0942.0513.26-2.07365.737.565.88222.738.9617.43318.54-2.7969.98-54.74
24Q1 (18)106614.7521.971.27142.33258.75-15.83-158.05-326.791.27141.1258.75444.127.1-5.78-26.40-141.55-262.06-33.92-162.01-454.817.63143.62237.73-150.64-166.41-434.3113.54148.64292.337.14132.28192.377.63143.62237.738.71-97.8932.53
23Q4 (17)9295.216.29-3.00-338.123.2727.27223.1260.98-3.09-2990.046.91414.6610.33-0.4963.54231.873.2854.70195.395.5-17.49-340.5810.4226.83205.1494.52-27.84-350.3618.45-22.12-363.656.11-17.49-340.5810.410.75-8.5350.26
23Q3 (16)8831.031.031.26321.0559.49-22.15-122.6131.76-0.1092.7594.79375.8511.172.44-48.21-84.3643.63-57.40-59.1839.327.27277.3270.26-215.74-76.9437.8411.12322.8560.698.39236.2417.97.27277.3270.26-8.55174.90-182.58
23Q2 (15)8740.00.92-0.5728.7563.69-9.95-242.5562.04-1.38-72.549.45338.1-28.2714.66-26.15-260.5369.77-36.06-477.262.79-4.1025.9961.93-121.93-370.5957.34-4.9929.1263.31-6.1620.319.28-4.1025.9961.93-7.5854.15-150.68
23Q1 (14)8740.00.92-0.8079.5431.036.98-58.8139.95-0.8086.2531.03471.3613.1113.2816.29-55.58139.879.56-65.83119.76-5.5471.6219.1245.06-61.36122.39-7.0479.3830.09-7.7367.19-28.19-5.5471.6219.1213.34-257.7046.70
22Q4 (13)8740.01.27-3.91-594.94-740.9816.94152.19370.56-5.82-203.13-365.75416.7213.58-12.636.67142.87185.1527.98129.58283.29-19.52-557.14-12300.0116.61133.6234.99-34.14-593.35-744.15-23.56-1554.32-6644.44-19.52-557.14-12300.019.00-222.3164.17
22Q3 (12)8740.921.390.79150.32416.0-32.46-23.85-1143.68-1.9229.67-221.52366.8924.426.38-85.531.11-42665.0-94.592.4-854.494.27139.65348.26-347.05-21.43-915.366.92150.88423.361.62123.86165.594.27139.65348.26-2.3557.49-36.94
22Q2 (11)8660.00.81-1.57-35.34-298.73-26.21-50.03-355.71-2.73-135.34-249.18294.87-29.13-39.29-86.49-111.67-436.67-96.92-100.37-619.4-10.77-57.23-509.51-285.8-41.99-415.38-13.6-35.05-300.29-6.79-12.6-178.28-10.77-57.23-509.51-20.93-162.75-317.65
22Q1 (10)8660.351.05-1.16-290.16-211.54-17.47-585.28-1158.79-1.16-152.97-211.54416.09-12.73-22.46-40.86-417.73-425.06-48.37-762.6-867.78-6.85-4381.25-298.55-201.28-678.22-695.15-10.07-290.0-212.51-6.03-1775.0-228.85-6.85-4381.25-298.5512.7626.92-173.67
21Q4 (9)8630.120.70.61344.0-32.223.60237.93-67.332.1938.6134.36476.838.25-24.5512.866530.0-45.767.30173.66-62.430.16109.3-91.434.81201.84-71.665.3347.66-30.990.36114.57-82.440.16109.3-91.44.63106.1756.24
21Q3 (8)8620.350.58-0.25-131.6521.88-2.61-125.46-144.541.58-13.66116.44344.89-28.99-28.57-0.20-100.78-101.09-9.91-153.11-182.65-1.72-165.4-20.28-34.18-137.72-159.05-2.14-131.5221.61-2.47-1.23-62.5-1.72-165.4-20.28-19.24-77.84197.88
21Q2 (7)8590.2310.840.79-24.0419.710.25521.21-29.891.8375.9657.76485.72-9.49-4.9125.69104.38-33.8618.66196.19-42.482.63-23.7716.8990.62167.95-45.316.79-24.1332.88-2.44-152.14-183.562.63-23.7716.89-12.29-4.24218.09
21Q1 (6)8570.010.011.0415.56108.01.65-85.03113.851.04-36.2108.0536.63-15.0827.112.57-46.98160.996.30-67.58122.223.4585.4863.5133.82-72.46128.268.9516.54128.94.68128.2977.273.4585.4863.517.91198.411.51
20Q4 (5)8570.010.010.90381.25-21.7411.0288.05-29.361.63123.29-63.62631.9530.89-7.2623.7129.0-23.6619.4362.05-24.161.86230.07-38.21122.81112.18-29.667.68381.32-14.292.05234.87-18.971.86230.07-38.21--0.00
20Q3 (4)85710.580.0-0.32-148.480.05.86-59.920.00.73-37.070.0482.81-5.480.018.38-52.680.011.99-63.040.0-1.43-163.560.057.88-65.070.0-2.73-153.420.0-1.52-152.050.0-1.43-163.560.0--0.00
20Q2 (3)775-0.510.00.6632.00.014.62222.750.01.16132.00.0510.7920.980.038.84288.450.032.44214.430.02.256.640.0165.69238.430.05.1130.690.02.9210.610.02.256.640.0--0.00
20Q1 (2)7790.00.00.50-56.520.0-11.91-176.350.00.50-88.840.0422.21-38.040.0-20.61-166.360.0-28.35-210.660.02.11-29.90.0-119.69-168.550.03.91-56.360.02.644.350.02.11-29.90.0--0.00
19Q4 (1)7790.00.01.150.00.015.600.00.04.480.00.0681.440.00.031.060.00.025.620.00.03.010.00.0174.590.00.08.960.00.02.530.00.03.010.00.0--0.00
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/11187.72-3.06554.531801.7813.92489.14N/A主係子公司三商人壽兌換利益較去年同期增加、外匯價格準備金較去年同期減少所致。
2024/10193.6579.6852.981614.06-0.53282.42N/A主要係子公司人壽分離帳戶收益、覆蓋法損益及兌換利益較去年同期增加。
2024/9107.77667.26-44.01420.41-5.06299.660.24-
2024/8-19.0-109.0-109.491312.630.68337.660.21主係子公司兌換利益較去年同期減少269億元及外匯價格變動準備較去年同期增加收入41億元。
2024/7210.8944.672.231331.6320.65462.690.15-
2024/6145.7737.47-36.371120.7424.89471.910.13-
2024/5106.03-51.82-10.51974.9845.89535.180.11-
2024/4220.115.29280.95868.9458.05599.040.1當期係美元漲幅高及FVTPL為累計損失將前期利益迴轉,累計係美元漲幅高及外匯價格變動準備金淨變動減少所致。
2024/3209.0423.0321.96648.8431.88648.840.09-
2024/2169.9-37.051860.34439.837.18521.210.11主係子公司人壽(1)分離帳戶收益增加32億、(2)兌換利益增加57億、(3)依異業別營收分類金融商品損益增加65億。
2024/1269.9231.5-13.47269.9-13.47310.020.19-
2023/1281.42297.13-43.951662.9-20.54166.70.34-
2023/11-41.3-132.6268.71581.48-18.79277.740.2202311較202211當月營收增加主係子公司三商美邦人壽:外匯價格變動淨利益增加12億,採覆蓋法之利益增加51億,兌換利益增加24億。
2023/10126.58-34.22-35.821622.78-21.96519.140.11-
2023/9192.46-3.81-47.551496.2-20.51598.840.09-
2023/8200.1-2.99-6.521303.74-13.96635.480.09-
2023/7206.28-9.9651.241103.64-15.19553.880.1主係(1)採用覆蓋法重分類之損失,去年當月同期較本期增加45億 (2)本期匯率升值幅度較去年當月同期大,致兌換利益增加20億。
2023/6229.193.33-14.43897.36-22.97405.370.14-
2023/5118.5105.09305.88668.26-25.51347.680.16主係美金貶值幅度去年同期較本期增加,致202305當期兌換利益較去年同期增加86億元所致。
2023/457.78-66.29-78.35549.76-36.66237.840.23主係(1)金融商品112/1-4為損失,故將112/1-3利益53億迴轉為零 、(2)兌換利益112/1-4損失轉為利益4億,較111/4減少163億所致。
2023/3171.41877.69-29.96491.99-18.14491.990.11-
2023/28.67-97.22-94.33320.59-10.03465.850.12主係子公司三商人壽111年2月金融商品利益較今年同期高76億及112年2月累計兌換損失而去年累計為兌換利益,造成本月44億差異。
2023/1311.92114.7353.32311.9253.32325.190.17主要係子公司三商美邦人壽112年1月金融商品利益較去年同期高105億元所致。
2022/12145.26210.05-31.822092.8911.12210.520.26-
2022/11-131.99-166.91-199.641947.6316.6432.220.13(1)主係本期單月台幣升值幅度較去年同期單月高,致產生兌換損失。(2)主係金融商品已實現損益累計為損失,去年同期為利益。
2022/10197.25-46.2448.382079.6135.23778.260.07-
2022/9366.9671.43295.851882.3633.98717.410.07主要係1.2022/9為兌換利益260億,去年同期累計為兌換損失。2.覆蓋法重分類利益較去年同期增加23億。
2022/8214.0656.9424.541515.4115.48618.190.09-
2022/7136.39-49.0524.021301.3514.12433.330.12-
2022/6267.74817.08116.061164.9613.06563.890.09主係本月為兌換利益,去年同期為兌換損失。
2022/529.19-89.06-81.14897.22-1.01540.890.09主係111/5兌換損失87億元及110/5已實現FVTPL利益32億元,111/5無。
2022/4266.969.0722.57868.0215.48664.590.07-
2022/3244.7460.0753.28601.0712.59601.070.08主係今年美元升值幅度大於去年同期(2.14%>0.91%),故兌換利益較去年同期增加所致。
2022/2152.89-24.8410.36356.33-4.76569.390.08-
2022/1203.44-4.51-13.66203.44-13.66548.960.09-
2021/12213.0660.84-14.611883.33-10.52478.450.09-
2021/11132.46-0.35-33.71670.27-9.97358.090.13-
2021/10132.9343.39-20.631537.81-7.1397.510.11-
2021/992.7-46.06-42.71404.88-5.58374.550.12-
2021/8171.8856.2910.221312.18-1.05405.760.12-
2021/7109.97-11.25-38.181140.3-2.55388.690.12-
2021/6123.91-19.95-20.731030.333.83496.50.09-
2021/5154.8-28.91-23.52906.428.42532.250.09-
2021/4217.7836.4176.8751.6218.63515.980.09主係本期股市回升,壽險投資部份之透過損益按公允價值衡量之金融資產為利益,去年同期則為損失。
2021/3159.6615.25-10.97533.83-3.79533.830.09-
2021/2138.53-41.21-4.38374.17-0.36623.710.07-
2021/1235.64-5.572.16235.642.16684.990.07-
2020/12249.5424.89-11.712104.8-8.22616.840.07-
2020/11199.8119.2922.171855.26-7.73529.10.08-
2020/10167.493.52-24.231655.46-10.38485.230.09-
2020/9161.83.7526.451487.96-8.49495.650.09-
2020/8155.94-12.35-22.561326.17-11.48490.190.09-
2020/7177.9113.8-0.81170.23-9.76536.680.08-
2020/6156.34-22.7746.5992.32-11.19437.450.1-
2020/5202.43157.294.93835.98-17.29460.450.1-
2020/478.68-56.13-52.96633.55-22.53402.90.11主要係採用覆蓋法重分類之利益及兌換利益減少所致。
2020/3179.3423.79-11.06554.87-14.71554.870.08-
2020/2144.87-37.18-23.69375.53-16.34658.170.06-
2020/1230.65-18.39-10.96230.65-10.960.0N/A-
2019/12282.6472.8335.392293.41.990.0N/A-
成長能力-近10年
加權平均股數 YoYEPS YoY本業EPS YoY營收 YoY毛利率(%) YoY營業利益率 YoY稅後淨利率 YoY營業利益 YoY稅前淨利 YoY稅後淨利 YoY
2023 (10)9296.29-3.0902.1501599.977.054.420-4.110-5.320-65.780-117.450-28.740
2022 (9)8741.27-5.820-59.2001494.57-18.95-39.210-48.010-8.420-717.520-137.330-50.90
2021 (8)8630.71.9620.2512.90-35.081844.05-10.0813.71-20.346.78-39.461.4215.45125.07-45.536.46-79.6318.935.19
2020 (7)85710.011.63-63.1219.87-10.542050.67-9.5317.21-0.8611.20-5.961.23-57.44229.6-14.9331.72-53.1113.98-59.5
2019 (6)7790.04.42927.9122.2102266.6813.317.36011.9102.891104.17269.88067.65034.52939.76
2018 (5)7798.040.43-81.06-22.5702000.53-15.69-6.080-12.3600.24-83.22-247.210-3.2803.32-79.77
2017 (4)7216.972.27-25.3327.22224.822372.8816.1518.7560.5313.15151.921.43-19.21311.96192.8138.251.4316.41-19.95
2016 (3)6744.983.0432.178.3802042.9410.8511.68148.515.2201.774.12106.54037.71-10.5820.538.98
2015 (2)6420.02.3017.35-6.1301842.924.184.7066.08-2.0601.7014.09-37.94042.1758.4714.7517.06
2014 (1)6420.01.9637.06-7.6101769.024.262.830-3.7901.490-67.1026.6139.112.637.11

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