玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/104.6947.5913.5735.3611.5711.26N/A-
2024/93.18-6.326.5930.6711.279.971.03-
2024/83.39-0.1514.0127.499.739.881.04-
2024/73.49.9418.6424.19.1510.450.98-
2024/63.09-22.081.7920.77.7410.50.97-
2024/53.9715.040.2417.618.8510.11.01-
2024/43.4528.213.7813.6511.649.341.09-
2024/32.69-16.18-7.6110.210.9410.20.96-
2024/23.21-25.5211.097.5119.5311.960.82-
2024/14.31-3.1526.74.3126.713.250.74-
2023/124.45-1.125.8240.646.8313.070.74-
2023/114.58.924.8136.196.9511.140.87-
2023/104.1364.518.9431.697.269.611.01-
2023/92.51-15.615.6127.567.018.351.09-
2023/82.973.915.7725.057.158.871.02-
2023/72.86-5.67-3.7722.086.099.850.92-
2023/63.03-23.274.6919.227.7410.020.88-
2023/53.9630.5826.5316.188.339.890.89-
2023/43.034.0810.1812.233.518.830.99-
2023/32.910.85.029.21.499.21.05-
2023/22.89-15.0629.246.29-0.0610.490.92-
2023/13.4-19.1-16.23.4-16.211.890.81-
2022/124.2-2.07-1.6238.0419.1912.280.75-
2022/114.2913.215.033.8422.4110.460.88-
2022/103.7959.4910.3829.5525.438.741.05-
2022/92.38-7.520.1125.7627.997.921.21-
2022/82.57-13.6319.2523.3828.858.441.14-
2022/72.982.6356.5720.8130.159.01.07本月增加50%以上,係去年同期因新冠肺炎三級警戒,造成營收基期偏低 ,與積極展店所致。
2022/62.9-7.2642.5317.8326.588.771.04-
2022/53.1313.7122.4114.9423.898.651.05-
2022/42.75-0.7820.8911.8124.297.751.17-
2022/32.7724.0440.699.0625.369.060.9-
2022/22.23-44.93-0.546.2919.6310.560.77-
2022/14.06-5.0234.674.0634.6712.410.66-
2021/124.274.5226.4931.9110.5611.790.61-
2021/114.0919.0122.7427.648.459.50.76-
2021/103.4373.554.3323.566.37.570.96-
2021/91.98-8.162.9420.126.656.031.19-
2021/82.1513.382.9218.147.076.091.18-
2021/71.9-6.57-21.515.997.656.491.11-
2021/62.03-20.359.4614.0913.336.860.87-
2021/52.5512.37.6112.0514.016.80.88-
2021/42.2715.451.189.515.876.490.92-
2021/31.97-12.313.647.2321.417.230.76-
2021/22.25-25.4329.255.2629.758.630.64-
2021/13.01-10.7930.123.0130.129.720.57-
2020/123.381.4216.0128.8621.3110.00.48-
2020/113.331.167.3225.4922.048.540.56-
2020/103.2971.2419.9522.1624.617.310.65-
2020/91.92-8.1833.2618.8725.476.440.79-
2020/82.09-13.5333.6516.9424.646.370.8-
2020/72.4230.2832.7414.8523.476.650.77-
2020/61.86-21.725.9212.4321.816.480.74-
2020/52.375.5916.9710.5721.116.520.73-
2020/42.2518.2630.568.222.375.890.81-
2020/31.99.3546.15.9519.545.950.75-
2020/21.74-24.9338.734.0510.156.960.64-
2020/12.31-20.47-4.62.31-4.68.330.53-
2019/122.91-6.1727.3523.7927.720.0N/A-
2019/113.113.0624.2120.8827.770.0N/A-
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/14.312023/13.42022/14.062021/13.012020/12.31
2024/23.212023/22.892022/22.232021/22.252020/21.74
2024/32.692023/32.912022/32.772021/31.972020/31.9
2024/43.452023/43.032022/42.752021/42.272020/42.25
2024/53.972023/53.962022/53.132021/52.552020/52.37
2024/63.092023/63.032022/62.92021/62.032020/61.86
2024/73.42023/72.862022/72.982021/71.92020/72.42
2024/83.392023/82.972022/82.572021/82.152020/82.09
2024/93.182023/92.512022/92.382021/91.982020/91.92
2024/104.692023/104.132022/103.792021/103.432020/103.29
N/AN/A2023/114.52022/114.292021/114.092020/113.33
N/AN/A2023/124.452022/124.22021/124.272020/123.38
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 166.99%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
24Q3 (20)6.615.9325.43
24Q2 (19)6.248.3317.74
24Q1 (18)5.76-31.595.11
23Q4 (17)8.4259.7714.71
23Q3 (16)5.27-0.5715.57
23Q2 (15)5.3-3.28-0.93
23Q1 (14)5.48-25.34-8.36
22Q4 (13)7.3460.96-8.25
22Q3 (12)4.56-14.7729.91
22Q2 (11)5.35-10.5465.63
22Q1 (10)5.98-25.2575.37
21Q4 (9)8.0127.9268.78
21Q3 (8)3.518.6714.33
21Q2 (7)3.23-5.2834.02
21Q1 (6)3.41-28.0635.32
20Q4 (5)4.7454.431.3
20Q3 (4)3.0727.390.0
20Q2 (3)2.41-4.370.0
20Q1 (2)2.52-30.190.0
19Q4 (1)3.610.00.0

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