玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/100.2-18.37-29.982.21-24.950.74N/A-
2024/90.25-11.69-17.372.01-24.390.751.02-
2024/80.2833.8-19.11.76-25.290.790.97-
2024/70.21-26.78-31.541.47-26.320.80.95-
2024/60.29-2.337.931.26-25.320.820.92-
2024/50.328.812.650.97-31.620.71.08-
2024/40.2336.97-13.390.67-40.360.531.43-
2024/30.1733.04-39.560.44-48.610.441.83-
2024/20.13-15.04-58.930.28-52.920.531.54市場需求減少
2024/10.15-40.5-46.190.15-46.190.651.24-
2023/120.25-1.0-50.043.45-35.10.80.88主要係客戶於去年集中驗收所致
2023/110.25-13.57-53.83.2-33.540.850.82主要係客戶於去年集中驗收所致
2023/100.29-3.678.552.95-30.930.950.74-
2023/90.3-13.55-15.42.65-33.590.970.88-
2023/80.3513.22-17.762.35-35.380.930.91-
2023/70.3115.45-30.742.0-37.740.870.98-
2023/60.27-7.11-37.911.69-39.010.821.16-
2023/50.298.68-37.431.42-39.190.831.15-
2023/40.27-4.42-22.631.13-39.650.851.13-
2023/30.28-9.59-52.860.86-43.370.861.33本月營收及累計營收較去年衰退,主要是去年認列太陽能發電收入
2023/20.3111.31-40.970.59-37.461.091.06-
2023/10.28-44.76-33.140.28-33.141.330.87-
2022/120.5-8.450.225.321.171.320.87-
2022/110.55103.0911.224.821.261.180.98-
2022/100.27-24.93-38.64.270.11.061.09-
2022/90.36-15.96-46.874.04.541.231.2-
2022/80.43-4.64-14.213.6415.661.311.13-
2022/70.453.495.193.2121.31.341.1-
2022/60.43-6.38-15.02.7724.61.241.27-
2022/50.4634.3922.462.3436.451.41.12-
2022/40.34-41.77-19.581.8740.441.461.08-
2022/30.5913.2181.051.5368.521.531.07本月營收及累計營收較去年成長,主要是訂單遞延及認列太陽能發電收入。
2022/20.5226.08251.320.9461.611.441.14去年因疫情影響基期低。本月認列太陽能發電收入。
2022/10.41-17.18-3.830.41-3.831.411.16-
2021/120.51.58-24.625.2516.691.431.15-
2021/110.4912.19.274.7623.751.611.03-
2021/100.44-35.043.884.2625.651.611.02-
2021/90.6835.6957.283.8228.761.61.1本月較去年同期增加57%主要係認列太陽能補貼收入
2021/80.516.9234.823.1523.831.431.23-
2021/70.43-16.3718.522.6521.951.311.34-
2021/60.5134.8848.732.2222.641.311.38-
2021/50.38-11.7520.031.7116.531.131.61-
2021/40.4331.0938.191.3315.640.92.02-
2021/30.33119.69-13.020.917.30.911.66-
2021/20.15-65.48-43.90.5823.711.241.21-
2021/10.43-35.08111.670.43111.671.540.97本月較去年同期增加原因是訂單回穩
2020/120.6647.2675.284.536.531.540.72客戶需求增加。
2020/110.456.57144.753.8431.711.30.85客戶需求增加。
2020/100.42-1.64106.063.3924.051.220.91本月營收較去年同期增加106.06%,原因是客戶需求增加。
2020/90.4316.31136.792.9717.311.161.2主要係客戶需求增加。
2020/80.372.7840.852.548.01.071.3-
2020/70.364.9416.782.173.931.021.37-
2020/60.348.8541.791.811.730.971.21-
2020/50.311.5914.161.47-4.561.01.17-
2020/40.31-17.494.091.15-8.720.951.23-
2020/30.3841.696.330.84-12.640.841.07-
2020/20.2630.21-22.930.47-23.60.851.06-
2020/10.2-46.24-24.410.2-24.410.771.18-
2019/120.38105.63-6.83.3-30.220.0N/A-
2019/110.18-10.26-45.362.92-32.490.0N/A-
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/10.152023/10.282022/10.412021/10.432020/10.2
2024/20.132023/20.312022/20.522021/20.152020/20.26
2024/30.172023/30.282022/30.592021/30.332020/30.38
2024/40.232023/40.272022/40.342021/40.432020/40.31
2024/50.32023/50.292022/50.462021/50.382020/50.31
2024/60.292023/60.272022/60.432021/60.512020/60.34
2024/70.212023/70.312022/70.452021/70.432020/70.36
2024/80.282023/80.352022/80.432021/80.52020/80.37
2024/90.252023/90.32022/90.362021/90.682020/90.43
2024/100.22023/100.292022/100.272021/100.442020/100.42
N/AN/A2023/110.252022/110.552021/110.492020/110.45
N/AN/A2023/120.252022/120.52021/120.52020/120.66
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 2.91%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
24Q3 (20)0.16-27.27-5.88
24Q2 (19)0.2210.0-18.52
24Q1 (18)0.211.11-37.5
23Q4 (17)0.185.88-25.0
23Q3 (16)0.17-37.04-68.52
23Q2 (15)0.27-15.62-47.06
23Q1 (14)0.3233.33-28.89
22Q4 (13)0.24-55.5614.29
22Q3 (12)0.545.8892.86
22Q2 (11)0.5113.3375.86
22Q1 (10)0.45114.2960.71
21Q4 (9)0.21-25.040.0
21Q3 (8)0.28-3.4540.0
21Q2 (7)0.293.5781.25
21Q1 (6)0.2886.67-12.5
20Q4 (5)0.15-25.0-53.12
20Q3 (4)0.225.00.0
20Q2 (3)0.16-50.00.0
20Q1 (2)0.320.00.0
19Q4 (1)0.320.00.0

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