玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/102.13-9.86-2.5421.06-16.196.64N/A-
2024/92.3710.95-4.5618.92-17.496.940.61-
2024/82.13-12.53-21.6616.55-19.066.830.63-
2024/72.448.348.0114.42-18.666.890.62-
2024/62.252.65-18.0411.98-22.566.380.65-
2024/52.1913.74-16.549.72-23.546.280.66-
2024/41.93-10.61-30.957.53-25.365.30.79-
2024/32.1678.05-28.815.6-23.225.60.71-
2024/21.21-45.67-41.733.44-19.256.150.65-
2024/12.23-17.492.152.232.157.210.55-
2023/122.718.84-10.1930.1-35.727.170.62-
2023/112.283.89-15.6427.4-37.476.950.64-
2023/102.19-11.73-30.0225.12-38.917.40.6-
2023/92.48-8.93-43.8422.93-39.647.470.68-
2023/82.7320.61-32.4520.45-39.087.730.66-
2023/72.26-17.79-54.2217.73-39.997.640.67主要係微投光機產品線營收大幅下滑
2023/62.754.53-47.8115.47-37.148.170.64-
2023/52.63-5.9-49.0812.72-34.238.450.62-
2023/42.79-7.8329.510.09-28.827.910.66-
2023/33.0345.73-37.217.3-39.37.30.87-
2023/22.08-4.75-38.384.26-40.697.280.87-
2023/12.18-27.47-42.742.18-42.747.890.8-
2022/123.0111.63-33.2746.842.648.840.78部份產品之收入認列改以銷貨價格減除客戶所提供關鍵物料後之淨額入帳
2022/112.7-13.82-40.4743.826.5910.250.67部份產品之收入認列改以銷貨價格減除客戶所提供關鍵物料後之淨額入帳
2022/103.13-29.16-18.3341.1312.4211.580.59部份產品之收入認列改以銷貨價格減除客戶所提供關鍵物料後之淨額入帳
2022/94.429.53-1.0238.016.0213.390.62部份產品之收入認列改以銷貨價格減除客戶所提供關鍵物料後之淨額入帳
2022/84.03-18.2528.0133.5818.7114.240.59部份產品之收入認列改以銷貨價格減除客戶所提供關鍵物料後之淨額入帳
2022/74.94-6.2829.629.5417.5415.360.54部份產品之收入認列改以銷貨價格減除客戶所提供關鍵物料後之淨額入帳
2022/65.271.9946.8624.6115.3912.590.78部份產品之收入認列改以銷貨價格減除客戶所提供關鍵物料後之淨額入帳
2022/55.16139.3142.619.349.0312.150.81部份產品之收入認列改以銷貨價格減除客戶所提供關鍵物料後之淨額入帳
2022/42.16-55.32-42.814.180.4210.360.95昆山工廠配合當地政府防疫措施,工作天數減少,造成產能及出貨減少
2022/34.8343.01-1.5412.0216.1812.020.75部份產品之收入認列改以銷貨價格減除客戶所提供關鍵物料後之淨額入帳
2022/23.38-11.4831.387.1932.1711.70.77部份產品之收入認列改以銷貨價格減除客戶所提供關鍵物料後之淨額入帳
2022/13.81-15.4932.873.8132.8712.860.7部份產品之收入認列改以銷貨價格減除客戶所提供關鍵物料後之淨額入帳
2021/124.51-0.3926.0245.6316.8212.880.68-
2021/114.5318.2141.9741.1115.8912.830.68-
2021/103.83-14.143.736.5813.3111.450.76-
2021/94.4641.6613.632.7514.5511.420.77-
2021/83.15-17.23-14.2628.2814.7110.550.84-
2021/73.816.1912.3725.1319.7811.010.8-
2021/63.59-0.961.4221.3221.2110.980.64-
2021/53.62-4.02-2.6217.7426.1912.30.57-
2021/43.77-23.0811.9714.1236.5511.250.63-
2021/34.990.8566.0610.3548.4310.350.58主要係去年同期受新冠病毒疫情影響。
2021/22.57-10.4860.395.4435.479.020.66主要係去年同期受新冠病毒疫情影響。
2021/12.87-19.8418.932.8718.939.640.62-
2020/123.5812.21-9.8139.06-18.9610.470.47-
2020/113.19-13.64-7.1835.47-19.7910.820.45-
2020/103.7-5.95-14.9732.28-20.8511.30.43-
2020/93.936.91-7.5528.59-21.5510.990.49-
2020/83.688.47-10.224.66-23.410.60.51-
2020/73.39-4.15-9.3920.98-25.3210.640.51-
2020/63.54-4.91-6.0417.59-27.7710.620.56-
2020/53.7210.36-7.1814.06-31.7410.040.59-
2020/43.3714.06-16.2910.34-37.677.920.75-
2020/32.9584.33-43.296.97-44.526.970.96主要係部份產品收入改以淨額法認列及新冠病毒疫情擴大,對材料供應速度及客戶需求造成衝擊,致產能及出貨減少。
2020/21.6-33.61-51.584.02-45.397.990.84主要係部份產品收入改以淨額法認列及受新冠病毒疫情影響,大陸子公司工作天數與可上工人數減少,造成產能及出貨減少。
2020/12.41-39.22-40.332.41-40.339.820.68部份產品之收入認列係改以銷貨價格減除客戶所提供關鍵物料後之淨額入帳
2019/123.9715.49-4.0548.2-23.030.0N/A部份產品之收入認列係改以銷貨價格減除客戶所提供關鍵物料後之淨額入帳
2019/113.44-20.89-26.2944.23-24.370.0N/A部份產品之收入認列係改以銷貨價格減除客戶所提供關鍵物料後之淨額入帳
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/12.232023/12.182022/13.812021/12.872020/12.41
2024/21.212023/22.082022/23.382021/22.572020/21.6
2024/32.162023/33.032022/34.832021/34.92020/32.95
2024/41.932023/42.792022/42.162021/43.772020/43.37
2024/52.192023/52.632022/55.162021/53.622020/53.72
2024/62.252023/62.752022/65.272021/63.592020/63.54
2024/72.442023/72.262022/74.942021/73.812020/73.39
2024/82.132023/82.732022/84.032021/83.152020/83.68
2024/92.372023/92.482022/94.422021/94.462020/93.93
2024/102.132023/102.192022/103.132021/103.832020/103.7
N/AN/A2023/112.282022/112.72021/114.532020/113.19
N/AN/A2023/122.72022/123.012021/124.512020/123.58
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 5.79%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
24Q3 (20)0.66-10.81-29.03
24Q2 (19)0.7413.85-35.65
24Q1 (18)0.65-5.8-15.58
23Q4 (17)0.69-25.81-10.39
23Q3 (16)0.93-19.139.41
23Q2 (15)1.1549.358.49
23Q1 (14)0.770.0-6.1
22Q4 (13)0.77-9.41102.63
22Q3 (12)0.85-19.81142.86
22Q2 (11)1.0629.27253.33
22Q1 (10)0.82115.7960.78
21Q4 (9)0.388.57-2.56
21Q3 (8)0.3516.676.06
21Q2 (7)0.3-41.18-23.08
21Q1 (6)0.5130.7721.43
20Q4 (5)0.3918.1825.81
20Q3 (4)0.33-15.380.0
20Q2 (3)0.39-7.140.0
20Q1 (2)0.4235.480.0
19Q4 (1)0.310.00.0

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