玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/104.510.28-3.243.98-21.5313.65N/A-
2024/94.5-3.04-8.4639.46-23.1913.732.08-
2024/84.641.07-12.734.96-24.7513.752.07-
2024/74.591.68-12.3530.32-26.3113.852.06-
2024/64.52-4.74-9.8825.73-28.3413.372.27-
2024/54.7415.11-19.0221.21-31.3412.962.34-
2024/44.120.3-38.9416.47-34.2211.392.66-
2024/34.1129.7-36.5212.35-32.4812.352.47-
2024/23.17-37.71-39.948.25-30.2710.992.78-
2024/15.0885.37-22.495.08-22.4912.02.54-
2023/122.74-34.4-40.7462.96-1.7211.583.08-
2023/114.18-10.36-18.3560.221.313.762.59-
2023/104.66-5.15-8.0856.043.1514.92.39-
2023/94.92-7.53-15.751.384.3115.472.59-
2023/85.321.48-3.5646.467.015.572.57-
2023/75.244.55-9.6841.158.5416.112.48-
2023/65.01-14.39-9.2535.9111.8317.612.17-
2023/55.85-13.27.8630.916.2119.072.01-
2023/46.744.2710.4725.0418.3618.482.07-
2023/36.4722.7113.318.321.5618.32.21-
2023/25.27-19.6125.8611.8326.6116.452.46-
2023/16.5641.7327.226.5627.2216.32.49-
2022/124.63-9.6116.5164.072.0214.822.67-
2022/115.120.892.6959.451.0416.022.47-
2022/105.07-13.01-13.854.330.8916.422.41-
2022/95.835.7730.3249.252.717.151.26-
2022/85.51-4.951.7343.42-0.1416.841.28-
2022/75.85.050.9337.91-0.416.751.29-
2022/65.521.755.7332.11-0.6417.051.34-
2022/55.43-11.1-11.0326.58-1.8717.241.32-
2022/46.116.948.4121.160.7816.01.43-
2022/35.7136.323.1115.05-2.0115.051.22-
2022/24.19-18.7512.379.34-4.913.311.38-
2022/15.1529.8-15.465.15-15.4614.111.31-
2021/123.97-20.3317.862.826.2714.841.59-
2021/114.98-15.318.5758.8326.8815.351.54-
2021/105.8931.5148.4553.8427.7115.781.49-
2021/94.48-17.42-7.1947.9625.5615.641.17-
2021/85.42-5.744.4943.4830.2916.391.12-
2021/75.7510.0547.6938.0628.517.071.08-
2021/65.22-14.39-6.0432.3225.5916.950.8-
2021/56.18.3352.8127.0934.3117.270.78因疫情擴散,帶動遠距經濟蓬勃發展,致5G網通、自動化控制及雲端邊緣運算需求大增;另全球晶片缺貨嚴重,故下游客戶拉貨力道強勁
2021/45.631.7134.5720.9929.7514.890.91-
2021/35.5448.5519.0915.3628.0715.360.95-
2021/23.73-38.878.159.8233.7513.191.1-
2021/16.180.8956.376.156.3713.671.07高階整合方案出貨量增加
2020/123.37-19.81-10.8749.7320.7511.541.13-
2020/114.26.0314.2546.3623.9512.991.0-
2020/103.96-17.7815.9742.1625.012.541.04-
2020/94.8228.5536.2638.1926.0212.460.99-
2020/83.75-3.618.5833.3724.6713.20.93-
2020/73.89-29.995.8129.6227.0513.440.91-
2020/65.5639.2462.125.7331.0313.740.75高階整合方案出貨量增加
2020/53.99-4.5813.5820.1724.4612.830.8-
2020/44.18-9.9819.616.1827.4712.280.83-
2020/34.6534.9135.3211.9930.4611.990.99-
2020/23.45-11.6275.277.3427.5711.131.07高階整合方案出貨量增加
2020/13.93.092.833.92.8311.361.05-
2019/123.782.7954.3541.19-0.10.0N/A高階整合方案出貨量增加
2019/113.687.6215.4537.4-3.540.0N/A-
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/15.082023/16.562022/15.152021/16.12020/13.9
2024/23.172023/25.272022/24.192021/23.732020/23.45
2024/34.112023/36.472022/35.712021/35.542020/34.65
2024/44.122023/46.742022/46.112021/45.632020/44.18
2024/54.742023/55.852022/55.432021/56.12020/53.99
2024/64.522023/65.012022/65.522021/65.222020/65.56
2024/74.592023/75.242022/75.82021/75.752020/73.89
2024/84.642023/85.322022/85.512021/85.422020/83.75
2024/94.52023/94.922022/95.832021/94.482020/94.82
2024/104.512023/104.662022/105.072021/105.892020/103.96
N/AN/A2023/114.182022/115.122021/114.982020/114.2
N/AN/A2023/122.742022/124.632021/123.972020/123.37
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 2.1%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
24Q3 (20)0.14-26.32-75.44
24Q2 (19)0.190.0-50.0
24Q1 (18)0.19-32.14-62.0
23Q4 (17)0.28-50.88-39.13
23Q3 (16)0.5750.050.0
23Q2 (15)0.38-24.052.0
23Q1 (14)0.58.7233.33
22Q4 (13)0.4621.05170.59
22Q3 (12)0.3852.0-22.45
22Q2 (11)0.2566.67-10.71
22Q1 (10)0.15-11.76-62.5
21Q4 (9)0.17-65.31-59.52
21Q3 (8)0.4975.0133.33
21Q2 (7)0.28-30.0100.0
21Q1 (6)0.4-4.76263.64
20Q4 (5)0.42100.068.0
20Q3 (4)0.2150.00.0
20Q2 (3)0.1427.270.0
20Q1 (2)0.11-56.00.0
19Q4 (1)0.250.00.0

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