玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/1115.226.9630.27132.957.8143.64N/A-
2024/1014.220.1415.85117.735.4640.25N/A-
2024/914.220.1712.38103.514.1738.130.67-
2024/811.82-2.37-8.0389.32.9733.580.76-
2024/712.1125.3415.3977.494.8931.170.82-
2024/69.662.7312.1365.383.1529.770.96-
2024/59.4-12.23-18.8655.721.7431.690.91-
2024/410.71-7.41-1.946.327.2832.670.88-
2024/311.5711.43-18.1935.6110.3935.610.79-
2024/210.38-23.93-1.3924.0332.7236.40.77-
2024/113.6510.3980.1513.6580.1537.70.75本月營收較去年同期增加50%以上,係因去年終端市場需求減緩,比較基期較低所致。
2023/1212.375.879.34135.684.7736.320.74-
2023/1111.68-4.877.49123.324.3336.60.73-
2023/1012.28-2.857.5111.644.0137.770.71-
2023/912.64-1.6527.8799.363.635.980.92-
2023/812.8522.572.3186.720.8131.961.03本月營收較去年同期增加50%以上,係因去年終端市場需求減緩,比較基期較低所致。
2023/710.4921.864.9673.87-5.9730.691.07因去年終端市場需求減緩,故比較基期較低所致。
2023/68.61-25.67-20.0563.38-12.2231.121.15-
2023/511.596.113.754.76-10.8436.650.98-
2023/410.92-22.79-3.5543.17-14.0835.61.01-
2023/314.1434.3212.1132.25-17.1432.251.36-
2023/210.5338.96-15.9918.11-31.1729.421.49-
2023/17.58-32.99-44.997.58-44.9929.751.48-
2022/1211.314.08-32.15129.5-41.1133.61.71-
2022/1110.87-4.86-42.05118.19-41.8432.171.79-
2022/1011.4215.55-44.41107.32-41.8228.762.0-
2022/99.8832.51-53.3195.9-41.523.72.98終端市場需求減緩致使營收下滑
2022/87.4617.27-65.0786.02-39.7524.592.87終端市場需求減緩致使營收下滑
2022/76.36-40.97-68.578.56-35.2928.312.5終端市場需求減緩致使營收下滑
2022/610.77-3.57-43.6872.2-28.6733.272.42-
2022/511.17-1.32-42.761.43-25.1735.112.3-
2022/411.32-10.24-40.6750.25-19.736.482.21-
2022/312.620.64-17.238.93-10.5138.931.49-
2022/212.54-8.99-14.5926.31-6.8942.981.35-
2022/113.77-17.351.4213.771.4249.21.18-
2021/1216.67-11.119.62219.9159.3555.970.68主力產品出貨提升
2021/1118.75-8.7324.4203.2565.5160.470.63主力產品出貨提升
2021/1020.55-2.9460.6184.4971.2663.080.61主力產品出貨提升
2021/921.17-0.8755.17163.9572.762.720.4主力產品出貨提升
2021/821.365.7872.56142.7775.6460.680.41主力產品出貨提升
2021/720.195.5466.38121.4176.1958.830.42主力產品出貨顯著提升
2021/619.13-1.9177.57101.2278.2957.720.34主力產品出貨提升
2021/519.52.18161.1582.0978.4653.830.36主力產品出貨提升
2021/419.0925.24102.3262.5962.4349.00.4產品出貨量顯著提升
2021/315.243.8232.3243.549.4943.50.46-
2021/214.688.0760.8328.2660.7443.460.46IDC產品出貨量顯著提升
2021/113.58-10.6760.6513.5860.6543.860.46IDC產品出貨量顯著提升
2020/1215.210.8777.87138.050.6543.070.41IDC產品出貨量顯著提升
2020/1115.0717.8164.23122.847.8541.510.42IDC產品出貨量顯著提升
2020/1012.79-6.2323.63107.7245.8138.820.45-
2020/913.6410.2343.0394.9349.4338.160.59-
2020/812.381.9853.981.2950.5535.290.64IDC產品出貨量顯著提升
2020/712.1412.6448.8668.9149.9730.380.75-
2020/610.7744.2566.0456.7750.2127.680.99主力產品市占率顯著提升
2020/57.47-20.823.6946.046.9328.420.97-
2020/49.43-18.0822.4538.5359.8530.080.91主力產品市占率顯著提升
2020/311.5226.1958.6629.177.4229.10.81主力產品市占率顯著提升
2020/29.137.94111.3317.5892.3226.130.9去年同期因晶圓代工產能短缺導致產品出貨受阻
2020/18.45-1.175.298.4575.290.0N/A108同期因晶圓代工產能受限導致出貨低迷
2019/128.55-6.8566.4591.6-7.650.0N/A107年同期因晶圓代工產能受限導致出貨低迷
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/113.652023/17.582022/113.772021/113.582020/18.45
2024/210.382023/210.532022/212.542021/214.682020/29.13
2024/311.572023/314.142022/312.622021/315.242020/311.52
2024/410.712023/410.922022/411.322021/419.092020/49.43
2024/59.42023/511.592022/511.172021/519.52020/57.47
2024/69.662023/68.612022/610.772021/619.132020/610.77
2024/712.112023/710.492022/76.362021/720.192020/712.14
2024/811.822023/812.852022/87.462021/821.362020/812.38
2024/914.22023/912.642022/99.882021/921.172020/913.64
2024/1014.222023/1012.282022/1011.422021/1020.552020/1012.79
2024/1115.222023/1111.682022/1110.872021/1118.752020/1115.07
N/AN/A2023/1212.372022/1211.312021/1216.672020/1215.21
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 7.52%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
24Q3 (20)1.6585.398.55
24Q2 (19)0.8981.63-32.06
24Q1 (18)0.4996.0-75.13
23Q4 (17)0.25-83.55-55.36
23Q3 (16)1.5216.03560.87
23Q2 (15)1.31-33.5495.45
23Q1 (14)1.97251.79479.41
22Q4 (13)0.56143.4814.29
22Q3 (12)0.234.55-50.0
22Q2 (11)0.22-35.29-86.34
22Q1 (10)0.34-30.61-86.4
21Q4 (9)0.496.52-67.11
21Q3 (8)0.46-71.43-48.89
21Q2 (7)1.61-35.642.48
21Q1 (6)2.567.7995.31
20Q4 (5)1.4965.56175.93
20Q3 (4)0.9-20.350.0
20Q2 (3)1.13-11.720.0
20Q1 (2)1.28137.040.0
19Q4 (1)0.540.00.0

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