玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/102.11-1.4214.2617.9213.546.37N/A-
2024/92.140.6230.4815.8113.446.281.03-
2024/82.135.3743.9213.6711.176.161.05-
2024/72.020.0384.3311.556.75.781.12新專案持續導入,營收相對去年成長。
2024/62.0215.6333.369.53-2.025.31.18-
2024/51.7413.029.627.51-8.544.771.31-
2024/41.543.79-0.935.77-12.94.411.42-
2024/31.497.89-8.754.23-16.584.231.53-
2024/21.381.07-4.332.74-20.294.461.45-
2024/11.36-20.87-31.791.36-31.795.281.22-
2023/121.72-21.33-11.5819.69-20.045.761.14-
2023/112.1918.68-10.2817.97-20.775.671.16-
2023/101.8512.57-25.5715.78-22.034.961.32-
2023/91.6410.98-29.5713.94-21.544.211.7-
2023/81.4834.96-39.4512.3-20.334.081.75-
2023/71.09-27.62-44.8710.82-16.744.21.7-
2023/61.51-4.94-37.089.73-11.674.661.56-
2023/51.592.13-24.978.21-4.584.781.52-
2023/41.56-4.4-34.216.622.074.631.57-
2023/31.6313.12-9.135.0722.95.071.52-
2023/21.44-27.9356.153.4447.565.391.43二月份相較去年同期未受到農曆春節假期影響
2023/12.02.5641.932.041.936.391.21-
2022/121.95-20.17-32.7324.6322.146.871.24-
2022/112.44-1.540.3722.6831.347.251.18-
2022/102.486.5248.2220.2436.417.251.18-
2022/92.33-4.59-0.7117.7634.916.751.38-
2022/82.4422.8818.2515.4442.636.831.37-
2022/71.99-17.3810.3213.048.376.511.43-
2022/62.413.3382.9611.0158.26.891.18客戶訂單量增加及六月份持續改善缺料情況,營收相對去年成長。
2022/52.12-10.4364.848.6152.446.281.29五月份持續改善缺料情況,營收相對去年成長。
2022/42.3732.04109.256.4948.795.081.59四月份料況相對緩解,加大出貨力道以消化前線訂單需求。
2022/31.7994.445.864.1227.614.122.18-
2022/20.92-34.522.692.3316.415.231.72-
2022/11.41-51.3812.631.4112.636.741.33-
2021/122.919.1124.7120.1714.487.01.1-
2021/112.4345.3937.7917.2712.936.451.2-
2021/101.67-28.6422.3414.849.696.081.27-
2021/92.3413.6232.4813.178.276.211.26-
2021/82.0614.6578.6910.824.155.181.51中國大陸客戶旺季提前拉貨
2021/71.837.050.278.76-5.164.41.78中國大陸客戶旺季提前拉貨
2021/61.312.11-15.46.96-13.423.731.65-
2021/51.2913.6819.175.65-12.943.651.69-
2021/41.13-7.95-1.074.36-19.353.111.98-
2021/31.2363.53-10.413.23-24.253.231.59-
2021/20.75-39.87-30.732.0-30.824.321.19-
2021/11.25-46.17-30.861.25-30.865.340.96-
2020/122.3231.659.2717.6116.095.450.9主要因為中國大陸客戶出貨大幅增加。
2020/111.7629.09-21.115.2911.54.91.0-
2020/101.37-22.73-12.4613.5317.854.291.14-
2020/91.7753.2524.5212.1622.634.121.18-
2020/81.15-3.57-11.8410.3922.313.91.25-
2020/71.2-22.882.259.2428.533.831.27-
2020/61.5543.859.478.0433.653.781.27-
2020/51.08-5.626.496.4941.113.591.33-
2020/41.14-16.6431.95.4150.93.61.33累計營收增加,主係亞太地區客戶出貨升溫, 同時非常態性標案出貨亦增加所致
2020/31.3726.4341.314.2756.964.271.1主係亞太地區客戶出貨升溫, 同時非常態性標案出貨亦增加所致
2020/21.09-39.9884.932.8965.664.351.08主係增加非常態性標案出貨, 及去年同期有農曆春節假期故本月工作天數較多
2020/11.8124.0155.91.8155.95.50.85主係109年1月增加非常態標案出貨
2019/121.46-34.81-14.2315.1733.140.0N/A-
2019/112.2443.2387.4513.7241.450.0N/A中國擴大內需加單
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/11.362023/12.02022/11.412021/11.252020/11.81
2024/21.382023/21.442022/20.922021/20.752020/21.09
2024/31.492023/31.632022/31.792021/31.232020/31.37
2024/41.542023/41.562022/42.372021/41.132020/41.14
2024/51.742023/51.592022/52.122021/51.292020/51.08
2024/62.022023/61.512022/62.42021/61.312020/61.55
2024/72.022023/71.092022/71.992021/71.82020/71.2
2024/82.132023/81.482022/82.442021/82.062020/81.15
2024/92.142023/91.642022/92.332021/92.342020/91.77
2024/102.112023/101.852022/102.482021/101.672020/101.37
N/AN/A2023/112.192022/112.442021/112.432020/111.76
N/AN/A2023/121.722022/121.952021/122.92020/122.32
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 2.37%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
24Q3 (20)0.14-56.25600.0
24Q2 (19)0.3268.42220.0
24Q1 (18)0.1972.73171.43
23Q4 (17)0.11450.010.0
23Q3 (16)0.02-80.0-80.0
23Q2 (15)0.142.8666.67
23Q1 (14)0.07-30.0-56.25
22Q4 (13)0.10.0-44.44
22Q3 (12)0.166.67-23.08
22Q2 (11)0.06-62.5-57.14
22Q1 (10)0.16-11.1145.45
21Q4 (9)0.1838.46125.0
21Q3 (8)0.13-7.148.33
21Q2 (7)0.1427.2716.67
21Q1 (6)0.1137.5-8.33
20Q4 (5)0.08-33.330.0
20Q3 (4)0.120.00.0
20Q2 (3)0.120.00.0
20Q1 (2)0.1250.00.0
19Q4 (1)0.080.00.0

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