玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/111.1555.27-1.519.995.732.96N/A-
2024/100.74-30.5921.658.846.753.15N/A-
2024/91.07-20.2733.588.15.573.231.57-
2024/81.3463.1526.237.032.33.071.65-
2024/70.82-9.07-11.395.69-2.062.541.99-
2024/60.910.9146.594.87-0.292.522.19-
2024/50.822.243.623.96-7.082.52.21-
2024/40.8-9.774.493.15-9.52.252.45-
2024/30.8855.09-30.332.35-13.442.352.47-
2024/20.57-36.33-37.821.461.392.22.64-
2024/10.921.8469.420.969.422.82.08去年同期需求較弱
2023/120.73-37.2313.3410.19-16.722.522.51-
2023/111.1791.8-1.929.45-18.42.582.45-
2023/100.61-23.78-39.168.28-20.292.472.56-
2023/90.8-24.65-40.327.67-18.282.792.46-
2023/81.0614.52-7.176.87-14.62.612.64-
2023/70.9350.41-20.845.81-15.832.332.95-
2023/60.62-21.59-50.734.88-14.812.173.16去年同期基數較高且6月份部分客戶訂單遞延所致。
2023/50.793.11-3.914.26-4.762.822.43-
2023/40.76-39.84-30.093.48-4.952.952.32-
2023/31.2738.4244.462.715.742.712.44-
2023/20.9273.460.121.44-14.42.093.17-
2023/10.53-18.48-31.610.53-31.612.372.8-
2022/120.65-45.69-25.2312.2317.392.842.24-
2022/111.1918.9617.5211.5821.263.541.8-
2022/101.0-25.22-6.6710.3921.73.491.82-
2022/91.3417.1880.169.3925.793.661.65客戶需求增加
2022/81.14-2.3469.478.0519.763.571.69客戶需求增加
2022/71.17-6.3821.356.914.213.241.86-
2022/61.2552.9228.915.7312.853.161.75-
2022/50.82-24.97-14.54.489.052.791.98-
2022/41.0924.2917.023.6616.222.881.92-
2022/30.88-4.05-7.752.5715.882.571.96-
2022/20.9218.4772.341.6933.712.551.97客戶需求增加
2022/10.77-10.875.650.775.652.651.89-
2021/120.87-14.634.2510.4237.452.961.53-
2021/111.02-5.5259.469.5541.542.831.6市場景氣回溫,需求增加
2021/101.0744.3465.238.5439.672.491.82市場景氣回溫,需求增加
2021/90.7410.2324.687.4636.632.391.72-
2021/80.68-30.0724.926.7238.12.611.57-
2021/70.97-0.5540.266.0439.752.91.42-
2021/60.971.4163.915.0839.652.861.14本月增加63.91%因去年受新冠肺炎影響基期較低所致
2021/50.962.6956.154.134.922.841.15本月增加56.16%因去年受新冠肺炎影響基期較低所致
2021/40.93-2.0256.833.1529.562.421.35本月增加56.83%因去年受新冠肺炎影響基期較低所致
2021/30.9579.2540.852.2120.722.211.3-
2021/20.53-27.37-16.361.268.972.091.37-
2021/10.73-12.0539.720.7339.722.21.3-
2020/120.8330.5654.197.58-3.032.121.4第四季訂單遞延至12月入帳,109年第四季與108年第四季同期比增加7%
2020/110.64-2.113.376.75-7.271.881.57-
2020/100.658.91-26.376.11-9.01.791.66-
2020/90.610.44-24.295.46-6.371.831.71-
2020/80.54-21.48-18.094.86-3.561.821.71-
2020/70.6916.213.524.32-1.381.891.65-
2020/60.59-3.38-3.33.63-2.251.81.72-
2020/50.613.13-4.63.04-2.051.881.65-
2020/40.59-12.0-8.862.43-1.381.911.63-
2020/30.686.434.621.831.311.831.66-
2020/20.6321.3329.361.16-0.511.71.79-
2020/10.52-2.94-22.30.52-22.30.0N/A-
2019/120.54-3.99-12.817.82-3.840.0N/A-
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/10.92023/10.532022/10.772021/10.732020/10.52
2024/20.572023/20.922022/20.922021/20.532020/20.63
2024/30.882023/31.272022/30.882021/30.952020/30.68
2024/40.82023/40.762022/41.092021/40.932020/40.59
2024/50.822023/50.792022/50.822021/50.962020/50.61
2024/60.92023/60.622022/61.252021/60.972020/60.59
2024/70.822023/70.932022/71.172021/70.972020/70.69
2024/81.342023/81.062022/81.142021/80.682020/80.54
2024/91.072023/90.82022/91.342021/90.742020/90.6
2024/100.742023/100.612022/101.02021/101.072020/100.65
2024/111.152023/111.172022/111.192021/111.022020/110.64
N/AN/A2023/120.732022/120.652021/120.872020/120.83
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 2.35%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
24Q3 (20)0.1525.066.67
24Q2 (19)0.12100.0100.0
24Q1 (18)0.06-14.29-14.29
23Q4 (17)0.07-22.22-12.5
23Q3 (16)0.0950.050.0
23Q2 (15)0.06-14.29-57.14
23Q1 (14)0.07-12.5-36.36
22Q4 (13)0.0833.33-20.0
22Q3 (12)0.06-57.14-45.45
22Q2 (11)0.1427.27-17.65
22Q1 (10)0.1110.00.0
21Q4 (9)0.1-9.090.0
21Q3 (8)0.11-35.2922.22
21Q2 (7)0.1754.55183.33
21Q1 (6)0.1110.010.0
20Q4 (5)0.111.1142.86
20Q3 (4)0.0950.00.0
20Q2 (3)0.06-40.00.0
20Q1 (2)0.142.860.0
19Q4 (1)0.070.00.0

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