玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/110.927.3461.278.4512.282.55N/A因去年同期基期較低及訂單增多之影響
2024/100.8610.4648.647.538.262.3N/A-
2024/90.7815.1428.116.684.622.260.32-
2024/80.67-16.977.855.92.162.320.31-
2024/70.81-2.5624.615.231.472.50.29-
2024/60.83-2.8723.534.42-1.872.570.27-
2024/50.86-2.9554.173.59-6.342.520.27因去年同期基期較低及訂單增多之影響
2024/40.8813.448.242.73-16.612.110.33-
2024/30.7872.99-3.541.85-24.871.850.41-
2024/20.45-27.08-44.441.07-35.311.620.47-
2024/10.6212.59-26.50.62-26.51.740.44-
2023/120.55-3.85-38.958.08-28.561.690.3-
2023/110.57-1.06-52.237.53-27.661.750.29因去年同期基期較高及訂單減少之影響
2023/100.58-4.79-42.476.96-24.481.810.28-
2023/90.61-3.07-47.736.38-22.291.880.31-
2023/80.62-4.06-41.55.78-18.111.950.3-
2023/70.65-3.4-28.795.15-13.941.880.31-
2023/60.6721.2-26.854.5-11.272.050.41-
2023/50.56-31.86-35.493.83-7.812.180.38-
2023/40.821.07-4.753.27-0.572.430.34-
2023/30.81-0.351.632.460.892.460.37-
2023/20.81-3.52-1.131.650.542.550.36-
2023/10.84-6.482.210.842.212.930.31-
2022/120.9-24.76-22.2811.3122.883.090.38-
2022/111.1919.1520.0410.4129.363.350.35-
2022/101.0-13.4913.259.2130.673.230.36-
2022/91.168.479.968.2133.173.140.38-
2022/81.0716.7836.467.0637.952.90.41-
2022/70.91-0.778.915.9938.222.70.44-
2022/60.926.8831.575.0745.272.640.55-
2022/50.860.627.284.1548.72.510.58-
2022/40.867.8548.633.2955.552.470.59本年累計營收較去年同期增加,主要是去年疫情影響,致客戶出貨較低
2022/30.79-3.0724.932.4358.142.430.46客戶需求增加
2022/20.82-0.25100.681.6481.482.80.4客戶需求增加
2022/10.82-28.965.670.8265.672.970.38客戶需求增加
2021/121.1616.22100.799.276.243.030.27客戶需求增加
2021/110.9912.4194.068.0473.22.930.28客戶需求增加
2021/100.88-16.01118.967.0570.622.720.31客戶需求增加
2021/91.0534.62153.96.1765.382.670.38物料供貨回穩致客戶出貨增加
2021/80.78-6.7983.225.1154.312.320.44物料供貨回穩致客戶出貨增加
2021/70.8419.87102.084.3350.032.220.46物料供貨回穩致客戶出貨增加
2021/60.73.470.253.4941.291.950.51客戶需求增加且擔心受航運運輸影響而提前拉貨所致
2021/50.6817.4746.552.7935.511.890.53-
2021/40.58-9.3438.972.1232.331.620.62-
2021/30.6455.6840.331.5430.01.540.45-
2021/20.41-17.6525.360.923.61.480.47-
2021/10.5-13.8322.20.522.21.580.44-
2020/120.5812.3232.165.2210.881.490.21-
2020/110.5126.8315.344.648.721.330.24-
2020/100.4-2.6-7.134.137.951.250.26-
2020/90.41-2.8519.913.739.881.260.21-
2020/80.432.7940.813.318.741.250.22-
2020/70.420.9837.252.895.21.290.21-
2020/60.41-10.981.452.471.231.290.2-
2020/50.4611.42.772.061.191.330.2-
2020/40.41-8.450.681.60.741.190.22-
2020/30.4539.075.961.180.761.180.24-
2020/20.33-19.72-9.90.73-2.21.170.24-
2020/10.41-6.84.990.414.990.0N/A-
2019/120.44-1.9644.784.713.350.0N/A-
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/10.622023/10.842022/10.822021/10.52020/10.41
2024/20.452023/20.812022/20.822021/20.412020/20.33
2024/30.782023/30.812022/30.792021/30.642020/30.45
2024/40.882023/40.822022/40.862021/40.582020/40.41
2024/50.862023/50.562022/50.862021/50.682020/50.46
2024/60.832023/60.672022/60.922021/60.72020/60.41
2024/70.812023/70.652022/70.912021/70.842020/70.42
2024/80.672023/80.622022/81.072021/80.782020/80.43
2024/90.782023/90.612022/91.162021/91.052020/90.41
2024/100.862023/100.582022/101.02021/100.882020/100.4
2024/110.922023/110.572022/111.192021/110.992020/110.51
N/AN/A2023/120.552022/120.92021/121.162020/120.58
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 0.67%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
24Q3 (20)0.02100.0-50.0
24Q2 (19)0.01-50.0-50.0
24Q1 (18)0.02-60.0-60.0
23Q4 (17)0.0525.0-16.67
23Q3 (16)0.04100.0-75.0
23Q2 (15)0.02-60.0-90.91
23Q1 (14)0.05-16.670
22Q4 (13)0.06-62.50
22Q3 (12)0.16-27.270
22Q2 (11)0.2200

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