玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/110.03-12.46-68.060.39-85.310.1N/A泰國生產訂單減少,營收下降
2024/100.0439.32-56.020.36-86.030.1N/A泰國生產訂單減少,營收下降
2024/90.03-22.0-82.00.32-87.10.12.7泰國生產訂單減少,營收下降
2024/80.04-2.27-79.630.29-87.450.112.35泰國生產訂單減少,營收下降
2024/70.04-14.09-83.140.25-88.090.092.85泰國生產訂單減少,營收下降
2024/60.04169.77-86.940.22-88.650.151.83泰國生產訂單減少,營收下降
2024/50.02-82.41-93.550.17-89.00.132.07泰國生產訂單減少,致本月營收下降
2024/40.09254.61-61.760.16-88.170.141.98客戶訂單減少,致本月營收下降
2024/30.0318.21-90.330.07-93.750.075.78客戶訂單減少,致本月營收下降
2024/20.02-5.65-95.060.04-94.80.182.17客戶訂單減少,致本月營收下降
2024/10.02-83.86-94.530.02-94.530.271.49客戶訂單減少,致本月營收下降
2023/120.1432.07-68.012.79-36.490.331.31客戶訂單減少,致本月營收下降
2023/110.1120.52-69.422.65-33.00.351.26客戶訂單減少,致本月營收下降
2023/100.09-42.99-71.332.55-29.490.421.05客戶訂單減少,致本月營收下降
2023/90.15-11.73-55.762.46-25.60.551.37客戶訂單減少,致本月營收下降
2023/80.18-19.09-45.02.3-22.030.721.05-
2023/70.22-33.47-32.182.13-19.260.790.95-
2023/60.3333.18-26.351.91-17.480.81.32-
2023/50.244.34-43.931.59-15.390.741.43-
2023/40.23-10.34-48.671.34-6.760.931.14-
2023/30.26-39.67-24.381.1112.671.111.27-
2023/20.434.4913.620.8532.721.291.1-
2023/10.41-5.5460.990.4160.991.21.17客戶訂單增加且泰國工廠產能提升
2022/120.4426.26220.344.411.541.091.32客戶訂單增加且泰國工廠產能提升
2022/110.3512.9739.243.964.031.01.43-
2022/100.31-12.0228.743.611.560.981.48-
2022/90.359.76-7.293.31-0.390.991.07-
2022/80.32-0.24-29.892.960.481.080.98-
2022/70.32-27.74-23.282.646.031.20.89-
2022/60.441.3919.712.3211.931.330.67-
2022/50.44-4.4735.091.8810.241.240.73-
2022/40.4632.0666.081.444.431.180.76係泰國廠已設置完成,並正式量產。
2022/30.35-9.343.970.98-10.90.980.63-
2022/20.3848.0441.80.64-17.30.780.8-
2022/10.2687.95-48.860.26-48.860.640.96-
2021/120.14-45.11-73.633.94-30.750.631.0412月因屆歐洲客戶及泰國工廠國定年假期間, 故精品部之出貨量較少所致。
2021/110.254.45-48.593.81-26.440.870.75-
2021/100.24-36.65-51.893.56-24.151.070.61受疫情影響,星馬保健產品及餐飲業務萎縮
2021/90.38-16.99-21.43.32-20.871.250.6-
2021/80.459.15-7.612.94-20.81.240.6-
2021/70.4212.7524.672.49-22.811.110.68-
2021/60.3714.42-29.792.07-28.30.970.47-
2021/50.3217.44-10.231.7-27.960.930.48-
2021/40.27-17.32-26.641.38-31.150.880.51-
2021/30.3323.63-39.561.1-32.181.10.43-
2021/20.27-46.6-25.260.77-28.421.290.37-
2021/10.5-3.11-30.00.5-30.01.510.32-
2020/120.527.03-31.765.7-20.331.50.13-
2020/110.49-2.26-39.15.18-18.931.460.14-
2020/100.53.49-20.094.69-15.11.470.14-
2020/90.48-2.4213.964.19-15.521.310.2-
2020/80.4947.29-0.373.71-18.281.350.19-
2020/70.33-36.5-52.03.22-20.441.220.21因新冠肺炎疫情影響且客戶流失
2020/60.5346.338.172.89-12.371.260.31-
2020/50.36-4.03-21.02.36-19.01.280.3-
2020/40.37-31.88-49.452.0-18.681.280.3-
2020/30.5552.89-4.231.63-4.561.630.31-
2020/20.36-49.99-39.221.08-3.531.840.28-
2020/10.72-5.5336.850.7236.850.0N/A-
2019/120.76-4.4840.327.1539.340.0N/A-
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/10.022023/10.412022/10.262021/10.52020/10.72
2024/20.022023/20.432022/20.382021/20.272020/20.36
2024/30.032023/30.262022/30.352021/30.332020/30.55
2024/40.092023/40.232022/40.462021/40.272020/40.37
2024/50.022023/50.242022/50.442021/50.322020/50.36
2024/60.042023/60.332022/60.442021/60.372020/60.53
2024/70.042023/70.222022/70.322021/70.422020/70.33
2024/80.042023/80.182022/80.322021/80.452020/80.49
2024/90.032023/90.152022/90.352021/90.382020/90.48
2024/100.042023/100.092022/100.312021/100.242020/100.5
2024/110.032023/110.112022/110.352021/110.252020/110.49
N/AN/A2023/120.142022/120.442021/120.142020/120.52
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 24.65%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
24Q3 (20)0.7611.760
24Q2 (19)0.680.00
24Q1 (18)0.68-1.450
23Q4 (17)0.6906800.0

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