玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/103.465.8711.9732.6740.5310.72N/A-
2024/93.27-18.1214.4429.2144.910.761.21品牌商庫存逐漸去化,比較基期較低。
2024/83.9914.0366.6325.9549.9310.871.2品牌商庫存逐漸去化,比較基期較低。
2024/73.53.5977.4821.9647.2510.171.28品牌商庫存逐漸去化,比較基期較低。
2024/63.382.5729.8118.4642.6410.01.24品牌商庫存逐漸去化,比較基期較低。
2024/53.29-0.9450.7415.0845.879.791.26品牌商庫存逐漸去化,比較基期較低。
2024/43.334.853.2611.7844.569.011.37品牌商庫存逐漸去化,比較基期較低。
2024/33.1726.2522.718.4641.418.461.39品牌商庫存逐漸去化,比較基期較低。
2024/22.51-9.3528.015.2955.647.31.61品牌商庫存逐漸去化,比較基期較低。
2024/12.7737.4493.492.7793.497.71.53去年1月逢農曆春節,營業天數較少;今年為正常營運天數,比較基期較低。
2023/122.02-30.82-1.3628.18-31.268.021.67-
2023/112.92-5.6220.3126.17-32.828.861.51-
2023/103.098.2128.0323.25-36.358.341.61-
2023/92.8519.2-9.3820.16-40.97.221.86-
2023/82.3921.45-29.5117.31-44.116.971.92-
2023/71.97-24.23-42.714.91-45.916.761.98-
2023/62.619.1-38.3112.94-46.376.962.01-
2023/52.190.7-46.1210.34-48.086.942.01-
2023/42.17-16.08-48.378.15-48.586.722.08-
2023/32.5931.7-43.635.98-48.665.982.58-
2023/21.9637.01-42.383.4-51.925.442.83品牌商庫存較多,陸續去化中。
2023/11.43-29.94-60.811.43-60.815.92.61品牌商庫存較多,陸續去化中。
2022/122.04-15.61-51.8641.0-18.396.882.26品牌商庫存較多,陸續去化中。
2022/112.420.42-49.9238.95-15.37.991.95-
2022/102.41-23.4-40.8236.53-11.238.961.73-
2022/93.15-7.28-19.4834.12-7.989.991.46-
2022/83.4-1.26-21.2730.97-6.6211.061.32-
2022/73.44-18.43-26.1127.57-4.4311.721.24-
2022/64.224.03-5.7124.13-0.2512.481.15-
2022/54.06-3.49-5.8719.910.9812.841.12-
2022/44.2-8.38-7.1415.852.8912.21.18-
2022/34.5934.631.4611.657.0711.651.22-
2022/23.41-6.8211.337.0611.0611.311.25-
2022/13.66-13.9210.83.6610.812.741.11-
2021/124.25-12.2210.1650.2459.4113.171.0疫後回補庫存
2021/114.8418.6872.4845.9966.2812.831.03疫後回補庫存
2021/104.084.2232.5441.1565.5812.311.07疫後回補庫存
2021/93.91-9.3422.9637.0870.2512.891.04客戶回補庫存及疫後消費回溫
2021/84.32-7.3262.2133.1678.3413.450.99客戶回補庫存及疫後消費回溫
2021/74.664.0771.5228.8581.0313.440.99客戶回補庫存及疫後消費回溫
2021/64.473.8576.9524.1982.9813.311.06客戶回補庫存及疫後消費回溫
2021/54.31-4.78153.3319.7284.4113.361.06客戶回補庫存及疫後消費回溫
2021/44.530.1202.7515.4171.3712.111.16客戶回補庫存及疫後消費回溫
2021/34.5247.7159.0310.8845.1710.881.34客戶回補庫存及疫後消費回溫
2021/23.06-7.2525.066.3636.710.221.42-
2021/13.3-14.4249.623.349.629.961.46-
2020/123.8637.4266.5431.52-11.569.741.44客戶回補庫存及疫後消費回溫
2020/112.81-8.84.6127.66-16.989.061.55-
2020/103.08-3.3-5.024.85-18.888.921.57-
2020/93.1819.582.7921.78-20.528.561.75-
2020/82.66-2.0-21.8918.6-23.497.911.9-
2020/72.727.37-13.4615.93-23.756.952.16-
2020/62.5348.68-19.7613.22-25.565.722.76-
2020/51.713.78-49.9110.69-26.826.042.62-
2020/41.49-47.41-40.98.99-19.826.782.33-
2020/32.8416.17-5.027.49-13.687.492.17-
2020/22.4510.94-3.524.65-18.246.972.33-
2020/12.21-4.74-30.072.21-30.077.22.26-
2019/122.32-13.67-19.2535.64-11.630.0N/A-
2019/112.68-17.19-23.6433.32-11.050.0N/A-
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/12.772023/11.432022/13.662021/13.32020/12.21
2024/22.512023/21.962022/23.412021/23.062020/22.45
2024/33.172023/32.592022/34.592021/34.522020/32.84
2024/43.332023/42.172022/44.22021/44.532020/41.49
2024/53.292023/52.192022/54.062021/54.312020/51.7
2024/63.382023/62.62022/64.222021/64.472020/62.53
2024/73.52023/71.972022/73.442021/74.662020/72.72
2024/83.992023/82.392022/83.42021/84.322020/82.66
2024/93.272023/92.852022/93.152021/93.912020/93.18
2024/103.462023/103.092022/102.412021/104.082020/103.08
N/AN/A2023/112.922022/112.422021/114.842020/112.81
N/AN/A2023/122.022022/122.042021/124.252020/123.86
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季
合約負債 QoQ YoY

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