玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/100.56172.7341.923.35-15.541.18N/A-
2024/90.21-50.54-52.872.79-21.891.130.86受延船影響,部分出貨遞延至下個月,造成本月營收較去年當月減少
2024/80.42-18.33124.472.58-17.581.080.9受延船影響,部分出貨遞延至本月,造成本月營收較去年同期增加
2024/70.51228.08-21.372.17-26.50.751.29-
2024/60.1674.78-66.861.66-27.940.730.93受船期不穩定影響,造成本月出貨較去年同期減少。
2024/50.09-81.66-47.081.5-18.010.830.82-
2024/40.4888.97-19.71.42-15.081.070.64-
2024/30.26-21.9929.190.93-12.470.930.5-
2024/20.33-5.38347.720.68-22.011.030.46受上月延船影響,本月陸續出貨,使本月營收較去年同期增加
2024/10.35-1.13-56.210.35-56.210.860.55受延船影響,部分出貨遞延至下個月,造成本月及累計營收較去年同期減少
2023/120.35116.5348.664.48-35.330.910.59-
2023/110.16-58.9616.714.13-38.290.990.54-
2023/100.4-9.44-43.633.97-39.461.020.53-
2023/90.44135.6-11.173.57-38.961.270.39-
2023/80.19-71.39-68.913.14-41.51.30.38受整體經濟不景氣因素影響導致客戶下單量減少,本期出貨金額較去年同期減少。
2023/70.6538.26-13.12.95-38.081.280.38-
2023/60.47179.14-35.062.3-42.71.240.46-
2023/50.17-72.17-57.541.83-44.380.970.59受客戶持續積極庫存調整影響,出貨量減少
2023/40.6204.05-28.361.67-42.580.870.65-
2023/30.2170.32-73.381.06-48.391.060.53受客戶持續積極庫存調整影響,出貨量減少
2023/20.07-90.74-89.440.87-34.261.10.51受客戶持續積極庫存調整影響,出貨量減少
2023/10.79235.7127.260.7927.261.170.48-
2022/120.2469.99-47.526.937.981.080.8-
2022/110.14-80.18-75.956.6912.161.330.65因部分訂單提前於上月出貨之故
2022/100.742.7-4.226.5521.611.790.48-
2022/90.49-17.540.095.8525.671.830.34-
2022/80.6-20.04-7.745.3628.682.060.31-
2022/70.743.32113.494.7635.361.860.34主因客戶訂單、需求成長所致
2022/60.7282.49206.264.0226.771.960.43主因客戶訂單、需求成長所致。
2022/50.4-53.0519.063.312.371.980.42-
2022/40.8412.9910.842.911.522.280.37-
2022/30.747.21144.322.0611.82.060.43因接單出貨量增加,致使本月營收較去年同期成長
2022/20.6911.526.331.32-14.431.770.5-
2022/10.6238.43-29.730.62-29.731.650.53-
2021/120.45-22.144.36.4142.461.760.56-
2021/110.58-21.07164.035.9642.321.80.54因去年同期受疫情影響造成出貨延遲;本年因疫情趨緩,出貨逐漸穩定下,較去年同期營收成長
2021/100.7349.1574.245.3935.621.870.52因遞延出貨及耶誕假期商品陸續交貨,致使本月營收增加
2021/90.49-24.03.314.6631.061.490.53-
2021/80.6585.0190.574.1735.341.230.64因全球性缺櫃、缺船、塞港問題,部分延遲交期訂單陸續出貨,致本期營收較去年同期成長
2021/70.3548.23-2.763.5228.510.920.86-
2021/60.24-29.05-18.823.1733.221.330.62-
2021/50.33-56.29-6.912.9440.441.40.59-
2021/40.76149.0556.582.650.181.720.48因進入後疫情時期,業績可望成長
2021/30.3-53.33-16.21.8447.71.840.43-
2021/20.65-26.3130.731.5473.971.850.43因船期延誤,部分出貨延至本年初;故累計營收較去年同期成長
2021/10.89184.31130.030.89130.031.420.56因船期延誤,部分出貨延至本月;故較去年同期大幅成長。
2020/120.3142.52-61.14.5-23.260.951.43受疫情影響接單量減少,故本月出貨量較去年同期下降
2020/110.22-47.91-61.044.19-17.281.111.22受疫情影響接單量減少,本月出貨量較去年同期下降。
2020/100.42-11.5618.013.97-11.821.231.1-
2020/90.4740.18-35.993.55-14.381.170.72-
2020/80.34-5.59-44.163.08-9.680.990.85-
2020/70.3623.74-52.432.74-2.21.010.84因受疫情影響,部分訂單交期延後致使本月營收下降
2020/60.29-18.64-22.752.3816.31.130.86-
2020/50.36-26.47-12.412.0925.081.20.8-
2020/40.4833.27-0.21.7337.151.350.72-
2020/30.36-27.1925.981.2560.481.250.62係因接單量及出貨量增加,致使營收較去年同期成長
2020/20.529.66273.290.8880.831.690.46因元月份適逢農曆假期,部分商品延遲至2月份出貨
2020/10.39-51.928.380.398.381.750.45-
2019/120.842.73102.735.87-2.810.0N/A因本年度新開發客戶新一季訂單於12月份大量出貨,致使營收增加
2019/110.5657.8267.495.07-10.20.0N/A因本年度新開發之客戶於11月起陸續出貨,致使本月營收增加
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/10.352023/10.792022/10.622021/10.892020/10.39
2024/20.332023/20.072022/20.692021/20.652020/20.5
2024/30.262023/30.22022/30.742021/30.32020/30.36
2024/40.482023/40.62022/40.842021/40.762020/40.48
2024/50.092023/50.172022/50.42021/50.332020/50.36
2024/60.162023/60.472022/60.722021/60.242020/60.29
2024/70.512023/70.652022/70.742021/70.352020/70.36
2024/80.422023/80.192022/80.62021/80.652020/80.34
2024/90.212023/90.442022/90.492021/90.492020/90.47
2024/100.562023/100.42022/100.72021/100.732020/100.42
N/AN/A2023/110.162022/110.142021/110.582020/110.22
N/AN/A2023/120.352022/120.242021/120.452020/120.31
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季
合約負債 QoQ YoY

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