玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/102.11-44.35-50.7329.19-3.379.05N/A依客戶訂單交期安排,本月出貨量較去年同期少。
2024/93.7920.1625.2827.084.449.981.31-
2024/83.153.5742.6823.291.699.621.36-
2024/73.04-11.0146.4520.14-2.688.721.5-
2024/63.4251.841.3417.09-8.169.131.39-
2024/52.25-34.88-49.0813.67-15.569.841.29-
2024/43.46-16.0617.7611.42-2.968.841.44-
2024/34.12226.7641.367.96-9.857.961.62-
2024/21.26-51.03-51.263.84-35.15.922.18依客戶訂單交期安排,本月出貨量較去年同期少。
2024/12.5823.61-22.532.58-22.537.351.76-
2023/122.08-22.45-37.0134.98-1.299.051.37-
2023/112.69-37.178.6232.892.389.991.24-
2023/104.2841.4933.7830.21.869.511.3-
2023/93.0236.85-41.4725.93-1.997.311.69-
2023/82.216.31-36.0222.97.586.711.84-
2023/72.08-14.11-42.2420.6916.038.921.39-
2023/62.42-45.31-28.8718.6130.769.781.13-
2023/54.4350.6100.6616.249.510.281.08依客戶訂單交期安排,本月出貨量較去年同期多。
2023/42.940.75239.3311.7736.428.441.31去年4月因大陸清零政策啟動封控,昆山子公司停工造成產值減少,於去年5月復工後整體營收影響有限。
2023/32.9212.64-12.548.8313.788.831.35-
2023/22.59-22.1637.825.9233.629.221.29-
2023/13.330.530.533.3330.539.111.31-
2022/123.3133.75-16.2335.44-6.648.981.3-
2022/112.47-22.62-27.9232.13-5.5210.841.08-
2022/103.2-38.12.0929.65-3.0111.820.99-
2022/95.1749.59100.6326.45-3.5912.220.88依客戶訂單安排于本月出貨量較去年同期多。
2022/83.45-4.02-21.721.29-14.3910.451.02-
2022/73.65.765.617.83-12.819.211.16-
2022/63.454.2716.214.23-16.496.471.91-
2022/52.21154.68-41.6310.83-23.276.411.93-
2022/40.87-74.03-69.158.63-16.576.082.03本月因大陸清零政策啟動封控,4月昆山子公司停工造成產值減少,已於5/7正式復工,預計第二季整體營收影響有限。
2022/33.3377.51-17.637.763.027.761.38-
2022/21.88-26.2860.744.4327.028.381.28依客戶訂單安排出貨
2022/12.55-35.510.02.5510.09.931.08-
2021/123.9515.0860.9137.9643.3810.520.92依客戶訂單安排出貨
2021/113.439.639.934.0141.599.141.06-
2021/103.1321.6371.7330.5741.7910.120.96依客戶訂單安排出貨
2021/92.58-41.6214.7227.4439.0210.391.06-
2021/84.4129.46124.0924.8742.1410.751.02依客戶訂單安排出貨
2021/73.4116.3718.2520.4531.7410.111.09-
2021/62.93-22.520.8117.0534.829.511.15-
2021/53.7834.652.6314.1238.1410.631.03係依客戶出貨日期安排出貨
2021/42.81-30.67-2.5710.3433.518.021.37-
2021/34.05246.45117.787.5354.897.531.36出貨係以客戶訂單交期安排出貨
2021/21.17-49.55-5.783.4915.985.941.73-
2021/12.32-5.6631.282.3231.287.231.42-
2020/122.460.06-36.6126.47-20.636.731.51-
2020/112.4534.54-23.0124.02-18.536.521.56-
2020/101.82-18.74-35.7521.56-17.996.041.69-
2020/92.2414.02-27.7319.74-15.847.091.4-
2020/81.97-31.67-29.0517.49-14.037.271.37-
2020/72.8818.880.0115.53-11.657.781.28-
2020/62.42-2.0915.1712.64-13.947.781.35-
2020/52.48-14.07-34.010.22-18.817.221.46-
2020/42.8854.9746.17.74-12.365.981.76-
2020/31.8649.8828.864.86-29.164.862.4-
2020/21.24-29.7-32.323.0-44.596.881.69-
2020/11.76-54.45-50.851.76-50.858.831.32出貨係以客戶訂單交期安排出貨
2019/123.8721.5318.9633.36-14.520.0N/A-
2019/113.1912.2710.4329.48-17.570.0N/A-
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/12.582023/13.332022/12.552021/12.322020/11.76
2024/21.262023/22.592022/21.882021/21.172020/21.24
2024/34.122023/32.922022/33.332021/34.052020/31.86
2024/43.462023/42.942022/40.872021/42.812020/42.88
2024/52.252023/54.432022/52.212021/53.782020/52.48
2024/63.422023/62.422022/63.42021/62.932020/62.42
2024/73.042023/72.082022/73.62021/73.412020/72.88
2024/83.152023/82.212022/83.452021/84.412020/81.97
2024/93.792023/93.022022/95.172021/92.582020/92.24
2024/102.112023/104.282022/103.22021/103.132020/101.82
N/AN/A2023/112.692022/112.472021/113.432020/112.45
N/AN/A2023/122.082022/123.312021/123.952020/122.46
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 38.06%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
24Q3 (20)6.03-28.38-3.37
24Q2 (19)8.4223.6448.5
24Q1 (18)6.8117.623.03
23Q4 (17)5.79-7.21-7.8
23Q3 (16)6.2410.056.85
23Q2 (15)5.67-14.22-6.13
23Q1 (14)6.615.2533.27
22Q4 (13)6.287.5328.43
22Q3 (12)5.84-3.31-5.35
22Q2 (11)6.0421.77-6.5
22Q1 (10)4.961.43-23.57
21Q4 (9)4.89-20.75-19.17
21Q3 (8)6.17-4.4953.48
21Q2 (7)6.46-0.4649.88
21Q1 (6)6.497.2732.72
20Q4 (5)6.0550.542.02
20Q3 (4)4.02-6.730.0
20Q2 (3)4.31-11.860.0
20Q1 (2)4.8914.790.0
19Q4 (1)4.260.00.0

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