玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/101.03-0.04-11.7810.758.183.24N/A-
2024/91.03-13.24-4.899.7210.843.311.12-
2024/81.188.2718.318.6913.053.681.01-
2024/71.09-21.857.917.5112.263.651.02-
2024/61.421.177.266.4113.043.631.13-
2024/51.167.284.885.0114.763.171.29-
2024/41.0814.673.043.8618.12.941.39-
2024/30.941.5248.852.7825.182.781.6-
2024/20.920.888.531.8415.793.171.4-
2024/10.92-31.124.180.9224.183.491.27-
2023/121.337.068.712.5120.893.741.21-
2023/111.246.7419.1211.1822.523.491.3-
2023/101.167.7523.759.9322.963.251.4-
2023/91.087.9331.278.7722.863.11.54-
2023/81.0-1.235.817.6921.763.321.44-
2023/71.01-22.3251.16.6924.573.421.39客戶訂單增加所致
2023/61.3118.484.825.6720.783.451.38-
2023/51.15.428.44.3726.542.781.71-
2023/41.0565.6547.493.2725.922.531.88-
2023/30.63-25.9721.152.2217.822.222.22-
2023/20.8515.4352.11.5916.552.811.75客戶訂單增加所致
2023/10.74-39.69-8.210.74-8.213.011.64-
2022/121.2217.3164.3610.3512.863.211.41客戶訂單增加所致
2022/111.0410.8932.369.128.312.811.61-
2022/100.9414.313.068.085.832.711.67-
2022/90.82-13.0-11.337.144.942.441.79-
2022/80.9541.0380.416.317.512.861.52客戶訂單增加所致
2022/70.67-46.11-3.195.370.362.771.57-
2022/61.2545.1361.744.70.892.811.31客戶訂單增加所致
2022/50.8621.084.023.45-11.152.091.76-
2022/40.7136.074.432.59-15.241.792.06-
2022/30.52-7.06-40.781.89-20.851.891.95-
2022/20.56-30.34-30.921.36-9.182.111.74-
2022/10.87.9816.310.816.312.341.57-
2021/120.74-5.522.919.1729.832.371.41-
2021/110.79-5.277.628.4232.912.551.31-
2021/100.83-10.35-14.297.6336.212.291.46-
2021/90.9377.012.016.846.82.151.49-
2021/80.52-24.3263.835.8754.381.991.61客戶訂單增加所致
2021/70.69-9.9615.365.3553.512.291.4客戶訂單增加所致
2021/60.77-6.65182.424.6661.472.271.51客戶訂單增加所致
2021/50.8221.5553.643.8948.842.381.44客戶訂單增加所致
2021/40.68-22.843.23.0647.592.371.45-
2021/30.888.42123.642.3868.22.381.4客戶訂單增加
2021/20.8117.2947.421.546.892.231.5-
2021/10.69-4.4446.270.6946.272.151.55-
2020/120.72-1.19-4.277.0623.922.431.4-
2020/110.73-24.5741.336.3428.232.531.34-
2020/100.9717.166.555.626.72.121.6-
2020/90.83158.930.884.6331.931.751.92-
2020/80.32-46.71-30.923.832.161.192.81-
2020/70.6120.4274.773.4844.271.412.38客戶需求增加
2020/60.27-49.21-6.152.8839.211.472.0-
2020/50.54-18.344.322.6146.611.591.85-
2020/40.6667.1859.022.0763.81.61.84客戶需求增加
2020/30.39-28.5269.561.4266.111.420.0客戶需求增加
2020/20.5516.3725.071.0264.831.780.0營收成長主係客戶需求增加及訂單交期之安排所致
2020/10.47-37.46161.580.47161.581.750.0營收成長主係客戶訂單交期之安排所致
2019/120.7645.8748.825.757.870.0N/A營收成長主係客戶需求增加及訂單交期之安排所致。
2019/110.52-43.13357.654.9459.350.0N/A營收成長主係客戶需求增加及訂單交期之安排所致
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/10.922023/10.742022/10.82021/10.692020/10.47
2024/20.922023/20.852022/20.562021/20.812020/20.55
2024/30.942023/30.632022/30.522021/30.882020/30.39
2024/41.082023/41.052022/40.712021/40.682020/40.66
2024/51.162023/51.12022/50.862021/50.822020/50.54
2024/61.42023/61.312022/61.252021/60.772020/60.27
2024/71.092023/71.012022/70.672021/70.692020/70.6
2024/81.182023/81.02022/80.952021/80.522020/80.32
2024/91.032023/91.082022/90.822021/90.932020/90.83
2024/101.032023/101.162022/100.942021/100.832020/100.97
N/AN/A2023/111.242022/111.042021/110.792020/110.73
N/AN/A2023/121.332022/121.222021/120.742020/120.72
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 2.68%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
24Q3 (20)0.22100.02100.0
24Q2 (19)0.1157.141000.0
24Q1 (18)0.07-41.67600.0
23Q4 (17)0.121100.0500.0
23Q3 (16)0.010.0-75.0
23Q2 (15)0.010.0-85.71
23Q1 (14)0.01-50.0-75.0
22Q4 (13)0.02-50.0-50.0
22Q3 (12)0.04-42.86300.0
22Q2 (11)0.0775.0133.33
22Q1 (10)0.040.0300.0
21Q4 (9)0.04300.0300.0
21Q3 (8)0.01-66.670
21Q2 (7)0.03200.00
21Q1 (6)0.010.00
20Q4 (5)0.0100

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