玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/101.54-0.78-0.3513.285.024.71N/A-
2024/91.55-4.47.9211.755.774.750.31-
2024/81.622.598.9510.25.454.210.35-
2024/71.5856.013.958.574.814.080.36-
2024/61.01-31.81-15.536.992.953.760.37-
2024/51.4917.6524.135.986.913.970.35-
2024/41.263.0323.174.52.223.260.43-
2024/31.2358.695.823.23-4.133.230.42-
2024/20.77-37.53-22.12.01-9.343.250.42-
2024/11.24-0.621.01.241.03.840.35-
2023/121.24-8.59-8.0115.25-26.124.150.31-
2023/111.36-11.8210.7414.01-27.394.340.3-
2023/101.547.455.9912.65-29.994.470.29-
2023/91.44-3.48-5.7111.1-33.144.310.34-
2023/81.497.29-22.959.67-35.914.070.36-
2023/71.3915.64-35.518.18-37.813.780.38-
2023/61.20.21-44.396.79-38.263.420.4-
2023/51.216.73-49.965.59-36.773.380.4-
2023/41.03-11.4759.014.4-31.893.170.43111年4月受新冠疫情影響,昆山子公司配合當地政府防疫政策,工作天數減少,致合併營收基期較低。
2023/31.1616.8-51.853.37-41.973.370.41因客戶拉貨較去年減少影響所致
2023/20.99-18.99-22.542.21-34.993.570.39-
2023/11.22-9.49-42.481.22-42.483.80.36-
2022/121.3510.04-37.2220.65-9.264.040.36-
2022/111.23-15.61-51.4219.29-6.344.210.34111年11月份營收較去年同期減少係因新冠疫情及客戶需求減少所致
2022/101.46-4.4-24.6218.07-0.034.910.3-
2022/91.52-21.13-25.4816.612.95.610.32-
2022/81.93-10.192.6115.097.026.240.29-
2022/72.15-0.2719.7213.167.76.70.27-
2022/62.16-9.8255.2811.015.635.190.38因客戶拉貨增加致本月營收增加
2022/52.39270.9961.148.85-2.05.440.36因受疫情影響,客戶本月拉貨增加致營收增加
2022/40.64-73.19-61.576.46-14.424.330.45因受疫情影響,昆山子公司配合當地政府防疫政策停工致營收較去年同期減少
2022/32.4187.9433.495.81-0.945.810.34-
2022/21.28-39.85-10.563.41-16.195.560.36-
2022/12.13-1.2-19.252.13-19.256.810.29-
2021/122.15-14.85-5.2322.769.646.610.31-
2021/112.5330.9515.8420.611.476.510.32-
2021/101.93-5.5-1.2218.0710.895.860.35-
2021/92.048.6-7.5816.1412.545.720.32-
2021/81.884.78-4.714.116.215.070.36-
2021/71.829.34-11.6512.2120.284.670.39-
2021/61.39-6.42-22.1810.4228.284.550.36-
2021/51.48-11.54-17.769.0342.494.960.33-
2021/41.68-6.88-14.767.5566.494.910.33109年第一季受疫情影響營收不佳
2021/31.825.9167.515.87128.895.870.29營收較去年同期增加,係因客戶需求增加所致
2021/21.43-45.7170.984.07173.256.340.27營收較去年同期增加,係因客戶需求增加所致
2021/12.6415.96174.52.64174.57.090.24營收較去年同期增加,係因客戶需求增加所致
2020/122.274.0767.5920.7541.416.410.27109年12月營收較去年同期增加,係因客戶需求增加所致
2020/112.1811.6562.6718.4838.756.350.27109年11月營收較去年同期增加,係因客戶需求增加所致
2020/101.96-11.5839.7316.336.076.140.28109年10月營收較去年同期增加,係因客戶需求增加所致
2020/92.2111.9860.6714.3435.586.220.24109年9月營收較去年同期增加,係因客戶需求增加所致
2020/81.98-2.8537.4112.1331.835.790.26109年8月營收較去年同期增加,係因客戶需求增加所致
2020/72.0313.9252.1310.1530.795.620.26109年7月營收較去年同期增加,係因客戶需求增加所致
2020/61.78-1.1168.698.1226.355.560.3109年6月營收較去年同期增加,系因客戶需求增加所致
2020/51.8-8.3171.946.3418.014.850.35109年5月營收較去年同期增加,係因客戶需求增加所致
2020/41.9783.0172.574.534.913.570.47109年4月營收較去年同期增加,係因客戶需求增加所致
2020/31.08103.691.732.56-19.352.560.46-
2020/20.53-45.0-27.271.49-29.862.840.41-
2020/10.96-29.19-31.210.96-31.213.660.32-
2019/121.361.011.6714.68-3.850.0N/A-
2019/111.34-4.08-21.5113.32-4.380.0N/A-
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/11.242023/11.222022/12.132021/12.642020/10.96
2024/20.772023/20.992022/21.282021/21.432020/20.53
2024/31.232023/31.162022/32.412021/31.82020/31.08
2024/41.262023/41.032022/40.642021/41.682020/41.97
2024/51.492023/51.22022/52.392021/51.482020/51.8
2024/61.012023/61.22022/62.162021/61.392020/61.78
2024/71.582023/71.392022/72.152021/71.82020/72.03
2024/81.622023/81.492022/81.932021/81.882020/81.98
2024/91.552023/91.442022/91.522021/92.042020/92.21
2024/101.542023/101.542022/101.462021/101.932020/101.96
N/AN/A2023/111.362022/111.232021/112.532020/112.18
N/AN/A2023/121.242022/121.352021/122.152020/122.27
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 0.67%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
24Q3 (20)0.0350.0-25.0
24Q2 (19)0.02-33.33-33.33
24Q1 (18)0.0350.0200.0
23Q4 (17)0.02-50.0100.0
23Q3 (16)0.0433.3333.33
23Q2 (15)0.03200.050.0
23Q1 (14)0.010.0-66.67
22Q4 (13)0.01-66.67-66.67
22Q3 (12)0.0350.050.0
22Q2 (11)0.02-33.33100.0
22Q1 (10)0.030.0200.0
21Q4 (9)0.0350.00
21Q3 (8)0.02100.00
21Q2 (7)0.010.00
21Q1 (6)0.0100

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