玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/100.563.317.975.25-16.541.6N/A-
2024/90.547.28-54.474.69-18.741.563.91係因去年同期認列房產收入較多
2024/80.5-1.4-14.914.15-9.481.54.06-
2024/70.515.64-11.653.64-8.681.494.07-
2024/60.48-2.89-1.193.13-8.171.623.87-
2024/50.5-22.07-2.692.65-9.341.693.71-
2024/40.6439.7119.972.15-10.761.564.02-
2024/30.5549.49-46.231.61-14.41.614.01-
2024/20.37-45.92-16.841.0524.171.83.57去年同期工作天數較少,故影響營收金額。
2024/10.68-8.6169.340.6869.342.063.13去年同期工作天數較少,故影響營收金額。
2023/120.7519.517.587.66-18.381.893.34-
2023/110.6321.099.866.91-20.462.332.71-
2023/100.52-56.44-2.86.29-22.592.32.75-
2023/91.19100.5165.375.77-23.972.362.84本期認列房產收入較去年同期多所致。
2023/80.592.37-11.874.58-33.311.664.04-
2023/70.5818.15-17.113.99-35.631.584.24-
2023/60.49-4.36-69.433.41-37.981.534.69去年同期認列房產收入
2023/50.51-3.91-28.072.92-25.062.073.47-
2023/40.53-48.2-13.572.41-24.392.013.58-
2023/31.03131.24-24.621.88-26.991.884.02-
2023/20.4410.11-9.530.85-29.671.544.88-
2023/10.4-41.94-43.510.4-43.511.674.52-
2022/120.722.04-12.029.390.51.84.39-
2022/110.577.12-22.88.691.661.824.34-
2022/100.53-25.89-22.498.123.971.924.11-
2022/90.726.85-38.327.596.522.093.92-
2022/80.67-3.71-5.546.8715.282.972.76-
2022/70.7-56.43-12.496.218.113.012.72-
2022/61.6125.07119.625.523.62.932.89本月認列房產收入
2022/50.7115.45-14.73.94.772.693.15-
2022/40.62-54.81-24.443.1910.42.473.43-
2022/31.36177.5188.022.5724.142.573.67本月認列房產收入
2022/20.49-31.24-17.041.21-10.312.04.73-
2022/10.72-9.57-5.00.72-5.02.244.21-
2021/120.797.08-21.079.3415.412.223.77-
2021/110.747.559.08.5520.572.593.23-
2021/100.69-41.0211.467.8121.792.563.26-
2021/91.1663.6564.077.1322.882.673.04本月增加房產營收
2021/80.71-10.87.265.9617.142.243.63-
2021/70.89.3514.945.2518.622.363.44-
2021/60.73-12.5828.734.4519.312.383.4-
2021/50.832.2611.233.7217.622.383.41-
2021/40.8212.447.762.8919.612.133.79-
2021/30.7322.44-4.242.0725.022.073.79-
2021/20.59-21.2673.31.3549.72.353.34109年受疫情影響合併營收減少,110年較去年成長
2021/10.75-24.8635.20.7535.22.433.23-
2020/121.047.963.978.09-20.92.32.96房產收入增加
2020/110.689.97-2.897.09-26.32.03.39-
2020/100.62-13.19-9.846.41-28.131.993.42-
2020/90.716.98-54.725.8-29.642.073.17房地產銷售減少所致
2020/80.66-4.41-17.575.09-23.751.923.4-
2020/70.6922.46-8.14.43-24.62.013.26-
2020/60.57-24.46-49.333.73-27.042.072.05-
2020/50.75-0.92-2.133.16-20.792.271.88-
2020/40.76-0.08-6.732.41-25.231.862.29-
2020/30.76121.59-29.61.66-31.441.662.44-
2020/20.34-38.57-45.260.9-32.921.512.68-
2020/10.56-8.88-22.130.56-22.131.872.17-
2019/120.61-12.41-73.5410.23-28.930.0N/A房地銷售減少所致
2019/110.72.09-2.619.62-20.410.0N/A-
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/10.682023/10.42022/10.722021/10.752020/10.56
2024/20.372023/20.442022/20.492021/20.592020/20.34
2024/30.552023/31.032022/31.362021/30.732020/30.76
2024/40.642023/40.532022/40.622021/40.822020/40.76
2024/50.52023/50.512022/50.712021/50.832020/50.75
2024/60.482023/60.492022/61.62021/60.732020/60.57
2024/70.512023/70.582022/70.72021/70.82020/70.69
2024/80.52023/80.592022/80.672021/80.712020/80.66
2024/90.542023/91.192022/90.722021/91.162020/90.71
2024/100.562023/100.522022/100.532021/100.692020/100.62
N/AN/A2023/110.632022/110.572021/110.742020/110.68
N/AN/A2023/120.752022/120.72021/120.792020/121.0
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 17.58%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
24Q3 (20)2.050.999.63
24Q2 (19)2.03-1.46-15.77
24Q1 (18)2.065.64-14.52
23Q4 (17)1.954.28-30.6
23Q3 (16)1.87-22.41-36.39
23Q2 (15)2.410.0-20.2
23Q1 (14)2.41-14.23-38.05
22Q4 (13)2.81-4.42-29.93
22Q3 (12)2.94-2.65-19.67
22Q2 (11)3.02-22.37-17.71
22Q1 (10)3.89-2.9925.48
21Q4 (9)4.019.5675.88
21Q3 (8)3.66-0.27106.78
21Q2 (7)3.6718.39263.37
21Q1 (6)3.135.96408.2
20Q4 (5)2.2828.81338.46
20Q3 (4)1.7775.250.0
20Q2 (3)1.0165.570.0
20Q1 (2)0.6117.310.0
19Q4 (1)0.520.00.0

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