玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/102.868.7426.9227.14-14.018.46N/A-
2024/92.63-11.445.4724.29-17.168.260.88-
2024/82.9711.557.6621.66-19.268.40.86-
2024/72.66-3.9-16.918.69-22.358.390.86-
2024/62.77-6.33-1.5816.03-23.188.410.82-
2024/52.9610.17-24.713.26-26.558.30.83-
2024/42.681.04-26.9310.3-27.067.580.91-
2024/32.6618.43-32.677.62-27.117.620.91-
2024/22.24-17.46-21.864.96-23.747.590.91-
2024/12.723.27-25.222.72-25.227.750.89-
2023/122.639.45-6.8436.611.097.291.01-
2023/112.46.69-24.0933.9712.777.151.03-
2023/102.25-9.63-30.6931.5717.117.50.98-
2023/92.49-9.6-14.4629.3223.668.450.93-
2023/82.76-13.895.5626.8229.08.770.9-
2023/73.213.81-10.1224.0732.379.940.79-
2023/62.81-28.34-14.7620.8642.7410.410.88-
2023/53.936.9166.9718.0559.5211.550.79客戶訂單生產出貨的需求增加
2023/43.67-6.8883.6714.1257.5610.490.87客戶訂單生產出貨的需求增加
2023/33.9537.4548.5210.4550.0610.451.01客戶訂單生產出貨的需求增加
2023/22.87-21.0144.36.551.019.331.14客戶訂單生產出貨的需求增加
2023/13.6328.6656.773.6356.779.621.1客戶訂單生產出貨的需求增加
2022/122.82-10.8112.0432.9529.249.241.24-
2022/113.17-2.5834.7230.1231.139.331.23-
2022/103.2511.5258.2826.9630.728.781.3客戶訂單生產出貨的需求增加
2022/92.9111.5537.5923.7127.689.091.37-
2022/82.61-26.6921.0420.7926.49.481.31-
2022/73.567.9353.1318.1827.219.221.35因瓶頸料件陸續進貨,客戶訂單生產出貨的需求亦有所增加
2022/63.340.3746.3614.6222.177.651.62-
2022/52.3517.615.5911.3116.557.011.77-
2022/42.0-24.7-1.358.9616.86.641.87-
2022/32.6633.5533.036.9623.326.961.72-
2022/21.99-14.1823.224.3118.016.831.75-
2022/12.32-8.0413.872.3213.877.191.67-
2021/122.527.2329.8725.4915.236.921.72-
2021/112.3514.4532.5222.9713.826.521.83-
2021/102.05-3.0520.9920.6212.026.331.88-
2021/92.12-1.850.8518.5711.116.61.54-
2021/82.16-7.2613.2516.4512.586.741.51-
2021/72.333.1613.9714.2912.486.621.54-
2021/62.2610.8773.3711.9612.26.321.23109年受新冠狀肺炎疫情之影響,北美客戶的訂單減少,需求延後;但自109年下半年後客戶訂單已逐漸回升。
2021/52.030.3584.249.713.76.061.28109年受新冠狀肺炎疫情之影響,北美客戶的訂單減少,需求延後;但自109年下半年後客戶訂單已逐漸回升。
2021/42.031.5397.537.67-7.075.641.38109年受新冠狀肺炎疫情之影響,北美客戶的訂單減少,需求延後;但自109年下半年後客戶訂單已逐漸回升。
2021/32.023.7-15.585.65-21.915.651.14-
2021/21.61-20.69-31.323.65-24.995.591.15-
2021/12.044.87-19.072.04-19.075.751.12-
2020/121.949.42-12.522.12-27.745.411.09-
2020/111.774.49-26.5320.18-28.935.571.06-
2020/101.7-19.19-41.7818.41-29.155.71.03-
2020/92.110.21-24.616.71-27.566.051.04-
2020/81.91-6.67-35.7314.61-27.965.251.19-
2020/72.0456.93-21.0812.7-26.634.451.41-
2020/61.317.81-42.3910.66-27.613.432.23-
2020/51.17.59-52.739.36-24.934.51.7受新冠狀肺炎疫情之影響,北美客戶通知有減產50%和停工至5月底衝擊,雖然營業額有下滑,但收入高於營運成本仍可維持獲利。
2020/41.03-56.61-51.868.26-18.525.741.33受新冠狀肺炎疫情之影響,北美客戶通知有減產50%和停工至5月底衝擊,雖然營業額有下滑,但收入高於營運成本仍可維持獲利。
2020/32.370.64-14.827.23-9.637.230.93-
2020/22.35-6.5432.854.87-6.887.080.95-
2020/12.5113.39-27.222.51-27.227.150.94-
2019/122.22-8.12-20.330.61-3.230.0N/A-
2019/112.41-17.19-24.4228.4-1.590.0N/A-
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/12.722023/13.632022/12.322021/12.042020/12.51
2024/22.242023/22.872022/21.992021/21.612020/22.35
2024/32.662023/33.952022/32.662021/32.02020/32.37
2024/42.682023/43.672022/42.02021/42.032020/41.03
2024/52.962023/53.932022/52.352021/52.032020/51.1
2024/62.772023/62.812022/63.32021/62.262020/61.3
2024/72.662023/73.22022/73.562021/72.332020/72.04
2024/82.972023/82.762022/82.612021/82.162020/81.91
2024/92.632023/92.492022/92.912021/92.122020/92.1
2024/102.862023/102.252022/103.252021/102.052020/101.7
N/AN/A2023/112.42022/113.172021/112.352020/111.77
N/AN/A2023/122.632022/122.822021/122.522020/121.94
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 13.59%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
24Q3 (20)1.977.0720.12
24Q2 (19)1.841.6626.03
24Q1 (18)1.8119.8724.83
23Q4 (17)1.51-7.93-9.58
23Q3 (16)1.6412.333.14
23Q2 (15)1.460.69-2.01
23Q1 (14)1.45-13.179.85
22Q4 (13)1.675.0363.73
22Q3 (12)1.596.71269.77
22Q2 (11)1.4912.88313.89
22Q1 (10)1.3229.41221.95
21Q4 (9)1.02137.21108.16
21Q3 (8)0.4319.440.0
21Q2 (7)0.36-12.2-21.74
21Q1 (6)0.41-16.33-18.0
20Q4 (5)0.4913.95-10.91
20Q3 (4)0.43-6.520.0
20Q2 (3)0.46-8.00.0
20Q1 (2)0.5-9.090.0
19Q4 (1)0.550.00.0

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